TL-191 WI: Could Germany have broken the blockade during WW1?

[Emperor of Columbia]

I ask this because, Britain is certainly a lot more stretched navally in TL-191. The US is a Central Power with naval strength similar to Germany, and I also think Brazil joins the CPs at some point if I am not mistaken.

 

[bguy]

I don't think the Germans can break the British blockade. The British will presumably cede North American waters to the US Navy and keep most of their fleet in the North Sea (no plausible British government is going to risk losing control over the North Sea) and just as IOTL if the British mass most of their fleet in the North Sea then that should be a force too strong for the Germans to defeat. The US Atlantic Fleet won't be able to assist the Germans in the North Sea because it is just too far away from American fleet bases for US surface ships to be able to effectively operate. IOTL the US Navy determined post-World War 1 that a fleet could not effectively operate more than 2000 miles from a major naval base. The sailing distance from New York to Liverpool is 2,875 nautical miles so that's already almost 50% beyond the fleet's effective maximum range (and of course there's still quite a ways to go from Liverpool to get to the North Sea.)

The risk to the British is not that the Germans will be able to break the British blockade, but rather the German counter-blockade with their u-boats. The Germans in TL-191 will be able to initiate unrestricted submarine warfare immediately (since they won't have to worry about offending the United States.) And while the waters around the British Isles are too far away from the US fleet bases for the US surface fleet to operate there, it would be possible for the US to send long range submarines to German ports.
(Per Wikipedia, IOTL the L Class submarines built by the US Navy in 1914 had a range of 4,500 nautical miles and it looks like the sailing distance from New York to Bremerhave is around 4,100 miles, so that should be just close enough for US submarines to be able to make it to German bases.) And of course once the US submarines reach Germany, they can start operating from the German fleet bases. Thus the British will likely be facing a submarine onslaught from both the Germans and US and given how close the German submarine offense came to starving out the British even IOTL, a combined German-US unrestricted submarine warfare campaign will almost certainly be too much for the Royal Navy.

 

[mattep74]

I don't think the Germans can break the British blockade. The British will presumably cede North American waters to the US Navy and keep most of their fleet in the North Sea (no plausible British government is going to risk losing control over the North Sea) and just as IOTL if the British mass most of their fleet in the North Sea then that should be a force too strong for the Germans to defeat. The US Atlantic Fleet won't be able to assist the Germans in the North Sea because it is just too far away from American fleet bases for US surface ships to be able to effectively operate. IOTL the US Navy determined post-World War 1 that a fleet could not effectively operate more than 2000 miles from a major naval base. The sailing distance from New York to Liverpool is 2,875 nautical miles so that's already almost 50% beyond the fleet's effective maximum range (and of course there's still quite a ways to go from Liverpool to get to the North Sea.)

The Ericsson seemed to have no trouble getting to Ireland so supply the rebells with guns and go back. Strange that Britain had no patrolls either by air or by sea on the west coast of Ireland.

 

[bguy]

The Ericsson seemed to have no trouble getting to Ireland so supply the rebells with guns and go back. Strange that Britain had no patrolls either by air or by sea on the west coast of Ireland.

I wonder if the Ericsson went by way of Iceland. The Danes are neutral in the war, so theoretically a US destroyer could stop off at Reykjavik to get refueled while traveling to and from Ireland. It would be rather risky for the Danes to allow that though as it would definitely upset the British and might lead to Iceland getting a visit from the Royal Marines. (And at least IOTL, the Danes signed a declaration in 1904 declaring their ports would not be open to belligerent warships in time of war.) Still, if the US and Germany apply enough pressure then the Danes might allow it.

Otherwise, sailing from North America to Ireland and back in a single trip appears to be just barely doable for a World War 1 era destroyer.

IOTL the USS Clemson, a Wilkes Class destroyer (one of the most common types built by the US circa WW1) that had been modified to give it 35% additional fuel capacity had an estimated operating range of 4,900 miles.

Destroyer Photo Index DD 186 / AVP-17 / AVD-4 / APD-31 USS CLEMSON

The Clemson was commissioned in 1919, but it's plausible enough in TL-191 that the pre-FGW US, lacking access to Pearl Harbor, would have focused on building some extra long range destroyers earlier than it did IOTL in anticipation of having to fight way out in the Pacific.

The sailing distance from Halifax to the port of Galway in western Ireland appears to be just a hair over 2,450 miles.

Thus a long range US destroyer from that era sailing from Halifax (after its been captured) could just barely make it to western Ireland and back. It would be a very risky operation though since the destroyer would be running on fumes by the end and if it had to do any evasive maneuvering at all on its voyage then it would run out of fuel on the way back. Going by way of Iceland would be much easier if the Danes will let them refuel there.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

The Ericsson seemed to have no trouble getting to Ireland so supply the rebells with guns and go back. Strange that Britain had no patrolls either by air or by sea on the west coast of Ireland.

I'd imagine they did, but the British destroyer force was pretty thinly stretched OTL. Now imagine they have to keep some in the Caribbean, more in the Pacific, lose some in Canada, etc. and they aren't going to have many destroyers in Ireland, and probably only a few older cruisers at the big ports as reaction forces. Ericsson did not stick around that long and wasn't really looking for trouble, so they could have missed the patrols, and our viewpoint character was not an officer so if a British aircraft, trawler or drifter was spotted he might not be told or know about it

 

[Michael B]

I'd imagine they did, but the British destroyer force was pretty thinly stretched OTL. Now imagine they have to keep some in the Caribbean, more in the Pacific, lose some in Canada, etc. and they aren't going to have many destroyers in Ireland, and probably only a few older cruisers at the big ports as reaction forces. Ericsson did not stick around that long and wasn't really looking for trouble, so they could have missed the patrols, and our viewpoint character was not an officer so if a British aircraft, trawler or drifter was spotted he might not be told or know about it

I doubt that the US advance would have caught any destroyers in Canada, but you are right on having to deploy destroyers in more areas than on OTL.

Look it from the US point of view. They risk one destroyer to run arms to Ireland. In return they are owed a favour from Germany and if/when the British find out they are forced to increase the number of ships covering Ireland. In other words less ships in seas of interest to the USA. That a division or two is drawn off the Western Front is minor, but part of the favour Germany owes.

If the destroyer is sunk during the op, the USA still collects the benefit, but now at a higher cost. It even makes good politics because come peace the Republicans can say to the Irish voters "During the war we supplied you homeland with arms so they could liberate Ireland from British rule."

 

[RamscoopRaider]

I doubt that the US advance would have caught any destroyers in Canada, but you are right on having to deploy destroyers in more areas than on OTL.

Caught in Canada no, but I'd assume the British based some destroyers in Canada prewar for a variety of reasons* and some of those were sunk in the fighting before they withdrew

*complicate a blockade of Halifax, prevent a coup de main bypassing the Isthmus of Chignecto, raid the Gulf of Maine fishing fleets, keep US raiders out of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, in the Pacific secure a route to Vancouver island and cover imports through Prince Rupert