So, we are now heading into the latter part of the 20th Century, OTL’s post-WW2 era, which is a time period that I’m still trying to figure out how to approach. On the one hand, this was quite a static and boring time in terms of military conflict and border changes. The vast majority of the changes in the borders of the world since 1945 either occurred through decolonization (which I’ve spent the last two updates covering) or through the fall of the Eastern Bloc, not through any sort of major war that could provide some material. On the other hand, the post-WW2 west has had extremely rapid social change for pretty much the entirety of that period, especially between 1960-1975 and 2005-present. It’s easy to assume that this is just the natural course of history, that the collapse of religion in the west (whether in Europe after WW2 or America beginning in the 1990s) was just bound to happen, but I’m not fully convinced.
Granted, some things that led to the decline in traditional religion in the west were probably inevitable. Scientific discoveries like evolution and the big bang obviously conflict with a literal interpretation of Genesis, along with critiques of organized religion coming from the Enlightenment, both of which would still apply ITTL (evolution was being theorized even before Darwin, astronomical discoveries were constantly being made in the 18th and 19th centuries, and the Enlightenment still occurs as per OTL). Economic development probably also played a sizable role in secularization, as someone living in an industrialized and wealthy country isn’t at constant risk of death, unlike someone in a pre-industrial country where famine or disease could come at any time, thus making being right with God less of an immediate priority.
However, I think there’s more to it than just that. For example, the French Revolution,
despite one of its early leaders being a Catholic priest, was ardently secular, even flat out anti-religious at times, and it firmly established the political left as secularist, oftentimes violently anti-religious, which was only reinforced by the highly anti-religious Marxists becoming the dominant leftist ideology. However, the French Revolution never occurs ITTL, and while there would still be a secularist streak on the left due to the aforementioned Enlightenment skepticism towards religion, it probably wouldn’t be as prevalent without the revolution bringing it to the forefront, and there might be an internal divide between secularists and Christians ITTL’s western left.
Another factor IOTL’s secularization IMO was the sheer destruction caused by the world wars, and while there are two world wars ITTL, they were in the 1860s/70s and the 1910s, rather than the 1910s and 1930s/40s, meaning they weren’t all in all as destructive (especially with the absence of something as purely evil as The Holocaust occuring ITTL). The Traditional order dating back to the Middle Ages that coexisted along with the Liberal and Radical order that came out of the Enlightenment and the French Revolution throughout the 19th Century was for the most part wiped out While this means that the west most likely doesn’t become as hubristic and arrogant as it was in the late 19th Century, it doesn’t crash as hard into nihilism and self-loathing after the world wars, throwing away its traditional value system, for better and/or for worse. Now, I’m not saying TTL’s western world circa 2021 would be a theocracy (aside from the Papal State, which still exists ITTL), or even a semi-theocracy like pre-1990s Ireland, but an accurate comparison might be some eastern European countries like Poland or Romania where Christianity (whether Catholicism in Poland or Orthodoxy in Romania) is in large part baked into the national identity, even if a lot of people in those countries aren’t particularly devout, and from what I’ve heard has a secular undercurrent. I’m gonna pass this question on to you, though, and I’d like to hear your thoughts. I know I had a similar question a couple of years ago, but now that we’re getting to the time period where all these changes and shifts took place, I wanted to revisit it. I’ve made my case, and I’d like to hear yours.