No Cold War?

Xen

Banned
I'm looking for a way to stop the Cold War from occuring, this is a start, I hope it looks okay to go with. I am sure there are things that need to be hammered out, but thats okay.

My first thought is to get rid of Joseph Stalin, so let us say Stalin dies of heart failure in late 1944, there are three likely successors at this point Vyacheslav Molotov, Lavrentiy Beria, and Andrei Zhdanov. All three are formidable and each conspired with another to bring down the other at some point in this chaotic period. For the time being they agree on cooperating in a triumvirate until the war against Germany is won. In December 1944, Zhdanov is found dead in his house having apparently fallen down the stairs in a drunken stupor and breaking his neck, foul play is expected and the Politburo begins to fall into two camps favoring either Molotov or Beria. Both sides believe the other responsible for murdering Zhdanov, although anti-climatic, Zhdanov a well known drunk chastised many times by Stalin really had fallen down the stairs in a drunken stupor after having secretly bedded a subordinates wife.

In the United States President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s condition grew worse, although he was sworn in for an unprecedented Fourth Term, the President died a few short days later on January 30. Out of respect for President Roosevelt and their alliance with the United States, both Great Britain and the Soviet Union agreed to delay the Yalta Conference until the beginning of March. Both Molotov and Beria intended on attending the conference, both hoping to gain an advantage on the other and possibly gaining the help of one of their wartime allies in resolving the situation the delay gave Beria time to make his move. Using his position as the head of the NKVD Beria dug up dirt on Molotov and his supporters, and was able to blackmail many leaders of the Red Army into supporting him. Molotov and his supporters were arrested, tried for treason and promptly executed within a six day time frame.

The general feeling of Beria’s takeover did not set well with Prime Minister Churchill or President Truman, neither of whom really cared for Beria and were aware of his role in the Katyn Massacre. Truman and Churchill met in private shortly before the scheduled Yalta Conference to discuss a joint British-American proposal for post-war Europe and their joint declaration proposing free internationally supervised democratic elections in Eastern Europe to determine their own fate.

The Yalta Conference opened on March 12, 1945 with the Big Three discussing the shape of postwar Europe. President Truman and Prime Minister Churchill stood together firmly in their joint support for Free Elections in Eastern Europe. To their surprise Beria relented and agreed to allow Eastern Europe to have any form their people wish, in return he demanded the Soviet Union be permitted to build military bases in Romania, Poland, and Czechoslovakia. It was agreed to by Britain and the US that the Soviets will be able to build their military bases, only if the Soviets would not interfere with their domestic affairs.

• Germany would be divided into no less than four and up to six new states with reunification strictly forbidden.
• France will be allowed to have a part in the Occupation Zone as long as it is carved out of American and British spheres
• Each of the German States would undergo an undetermined period of denazification and demilitarization
• The Soviet Union would participate in the war against Japan within 120 days after the surrender of Nazi Germany
• Volga Germans in the Soviet Union would be resettled into the new German states as punishment for their cooperation with the Nazis
• Beria secured loans from the United States government to help rebuild the Soviet Union’s infrastructure.

The war proceeded differently with George Patton and his army free to liberate Prague the beat the Soviets to the Czech capital on 5 May 1945. With the capture of the Flensburg Government by British Forces in late May, the Second World War came to a close in Europe with President Karl Donitz ordering the unconditional surrender of the army and navy. After nearly six long years of fighting, the war in Europe was over.

Premier Beria, President Truman and new British Prime Minister Clement Attlee agree to meet at Berlin.

• With Beria’s armies in control of much of Eastern Europe, Beria insisted the nations under control of the Red Army not to be allowed to form Foreign Alliances nor spend more than .5% of its GDP on military expenditures. Beria insisted that it was for defensive measures against any possible future invasion of Russia. Beria demanded that the nations of Eastern Europe to be protectorates of the Soviet Union with Moscow controlling the Foreign Affairs of the states, while they maintained sovereignty over their own domestic affairs. {Essentially a Finlandization of Eastern Europe}
• Germany was to be split into five new states Germania (with its capital in Berlin), Rhineland (with its capital in Frankfurt), Bavaria (with its capital in Munich), Austria (with its capital in Vienna) and Prussia (with its capital in Königsberg)
• Agreement to hunt down and prosecute Nazi War Criminals
• Expulsion of Germans from Sudetenland, Alsace-Lorraine, and Poland.
• Polish-German border shifted to the Oder-Neisse River, this is strictly observed with Germania maintaining dominion of Silesia west of the Oder.
• Each of the German states would pay war reparations to the USSR

The United States drops a nuclear bomb the Little Boy on the Japanese city of Kyoto on 31 July, the USSR invaded Manchuria the next day. On August 3 the United States dropped a second nuclear bomb on the Japanese city of Hiroshima. On the 8th of August the Empire of Japan agreed to surrender ending the Second World War.

With Beria much more interested in Manchuria he did not oppose the US occupation of Korea so long as the Japanese factories were dismantled and moved to the USSR. Truman complied with Beria’s demand; Japanese POW’s began the process of dismantling their factories and loading them onto US trucks for delivery to Soviet occupied Manchuria where Soviet troops were doing the same.

The world is not quite at peace, the Chinese Civil War is once again raging across the ancient nation, in Korea Communist guerillas are attacking the government forces of President Syngman Rhee and the occupying US military, and yet another Civil War rages in Greece with Communists covertly supported by Tito fighting the governmental forces supported by Italy, France and Britain.

Lt. General George Patton is forced to pull out of Czechoslovakia by Harry Truman, publicly Patton says nothing, but privately blasts Truman. In spite of his problems with the President he is never the less promoted to General and given command of US forces in Bavaria & Austria, he is unhappy with this post however and is eventually transferred to the command of Douglas MacArthur and given command of all Allied forces in Korea. Because of their similar personalities MacArthur and Patton can not stand each other, they do however share a tremendous respect for one another.
 

Xen

Banned
Wow no replies? Kind of surprised by that

Here's what Im thinking of having happen next

The USSR turns its back on Mao and the Chinese Communists, they may however set up a puppet state in Manchuria. Beria will support the KMT in the Chinese Civil War. Why? Chiang is incompetent, corrupt and weak, he is unlikely to challenge Soviet supremacy and should be easier to control. Even without Soviet support the Chinese Civil War continues into the 1950's and comes to a dramatic close when a communist stronghold becomes a nuclear wasteland and communist leadership dies of radiation poisoning. (Im thinking of Beria or somebody giving Chiang a bomb to deal with the problem). This could back fire on Chiang or it could work to his advantage, he may be the most reviled man in Chinese history, but people would be too scared to revolt against him.

Without the Cold War, Truman lends more support to Ho Chi Minh and pressures France to back off of Vietnam. Ho Chi Minh is able to "take over" and force Bao Dai to abdicate. The Democratic Republic of Vietnam is established, and tends to favor communism, but is not a communist state in the same way the USSR is a communist state.

In Eastern Europe several states come under the influence of dictatorships including Romania, Latvia, and Estonia. They are pro-Soviet but not communist, Bulgaria may also fall into this catergory. On the other hand Poland, Lithuania, Hungary and Czechoslovakia form pro-western democracies.

The United States elects Robert Taft as President in 1948 and begins to return to isolationism, as a result the alliance of the British and French Empires begins to act as the worlds policeman.

Decolonialization occurs at a much slower pace, Britain institutes a process of devolution where parts of its Empire must achieve certain goals in order to gain greater sovereignty from London. France still has a more cut and run mentaltity when it dumps parts of its Empire.

Spain and Portugal remain fascist, now here I have several scenarios, a Second Civil War in which France and Britain establishes a democratic nation (republic or kingdom, dont know) or Spain and Portugal join with their former colonies in Latin America to form a Heritage League or something thus ensuring the survival of fascism.

In the Middle East Israel will still join the brotherhood of nations in 1948, but the Egyptian and Iraqi monarchies survive the turmoil of the post-war years. I have thought about an Iraqi-Jordanian invasion of Syria during their chaotic years and installing a Hashemite King in Damascus, but I am not certain as to the plausibility of this.

I'll add more as I can
 
Actually, I think the timeline is plausible. Beria may have been a nasty piece of work but he may very well have been less interested in dominating Eastern and Central Europe than Stalin was. In addition, with a shakier hold on power than Stalin, Beria maight very well have been more interested in maintaining good (or at least decent) relations with the West so as to avoid crises which could threaten his grip on power.
A few small comments:
1. I do not think any of the changes in TTL before August 1945 would lead to the atomic bombing of Kyoto. Secretary of War Stimson was adamantly opposed to destroying the cultural capital of Japan and President Truman admired Stimson enough to let the old man have his way on this point.
2. I agree that a less tense foreign scene would help the GOP win the election in 1948. The Berlin Blockade and Airlift not only strengthened Truman but cut down on Wallace's votes. However, I think Dewey would still be the GOP candidate and the winner of the election. Dewey had the money, the national reputation and the support of the "Eastern Establishment", which in 1948 still meant something.
3. Without the Cold War, especailly without the Czech Coup and the Berlin Blockade, there will be no NATO. However, an informal alliance among the U.S., the U.K. and France is still possible. Perhaps it would be called "The New Entente".
4. Even without a Cold War I think something like the Marshall Plan would be adopted by the U.S. It was clearly in the interests of the U.S. to get Europe back on its feet and Europe will still need help. The dollar amount may not be as big without the Soviet threat and the lesser dollars might have to be spread over more countries since Stalin is not around to veto Eastern European participation. There might even be some money for the Soviet Union.
5. Based on 2, 3 and 4 above I do not see the U.S. retreating into a 1920's type of isolationism, but the treaty alliances of OTL may never come into existence and the UN might actually be a more significant force in world affairs.
Keep up the good work, Mr. Xen.

AH
 

Xen

Banned
Actually, I think the timeline is plausible. Beria may have been a nasty piece of work but he may very well have been less interested in dominating Eastern and Central Europe than Stalin was. In addition, with a shakier hold on power than Stalin, Beria maight very well have been more interested in maintaining good (or at least decent) relations with the West so as to avoid crises which could threaten his grip on power.
A few small comments:
1. I do not think any of the changes in TTL before August 1945 would lead to the atomic bombing of Kyoto. Secretary of War Stimson was adamantly opposed to destroying the cultural capital of Japan and President Truman admired Stimson enough to let the old man have his way on this point.
2. I agree that a less tense foreign scene would help the GOP win the election in 1948. The Berlin Blockade and Airlift not only strengthened Truman but cut down on Wallace's votes. However, I think Dewey would still be the GOP candidate and the winner of the election. Dewey had the money, the national reputation and the support of the "Eastern Establishment", which in 1948 still meant something.
3. Without the Cold War, especailly without the Czech Coup and the Berlin Blockade, there will be no NATO. However, an informal alliance among the U.S., the U.K. and France is still possible. Perhaps it would be called "The New Entente".
4. Even without a Cold War I think something like the Marshall Plan would be adopted by the U.S. It was clearly in the interests of the U.S. to get Europe back on its feet and Europe will still need help. The dollar amount may not be as big without the Soviet threat and the lesser dollars might have to be spread over more countries since Stalin is not around to veto Eastern European participation. There might even be some money for the Soviet Union.
5. Based on 2, 3 and 4 above I do not see the U.S. retreating into a 1920's type of isolationism, but the treaty alliances of OTL may never come into existence and the UN might actually be a more significant force in world affairs.
Keep up the good work, Mr. Xen.

AH

Thanks for your comments

1) You may be right on, Hiroshima and Nagasaki are probably still the likely targets

2) You may be right on this one too. The President's of this timeline will be interesting. Perhaps a Dewey-Stassen ticket would be interesting. I will post a quick list

3) Great idea. The New Entente Cordiale

4) Yeah especially if Dewey wins in 1948, the USSR will definately get money that was one of Beria's demands.
 

Xen

Banned
US Presidents
1933-1945: Franklin Roosevelt (Democrat)
1945-1949: Harry S. Truman (Democrat)
1949-1957: Thomas Dewey (Republican)
1957-1961: Harold Stassen (Republican)
1961-1963: Estes Kefauver (Democrat)
1963-1973: Hubert H. Humphrey (Democrat)
1973-1981: Nelson Rockefeller (Republican)
1981-1985: John Chafee (Republican)
1985-1993: Lloyd Bentsen (Democrat)
1993-2001: Jim Jeffords (Republican)
2001-2009: Douglas Wilder (Democrat)
2009-current: Lisa Murkowski (Republican)

Elections
1948: Dewey/Stassen defeats Truman/Barkley and Thurmond/Wright
1952: Dewey/Stassen defeats Stevenson/Sparkman
1956: Stassen/Lodge defeats Stevenson/Gore and Thurmond/Sparkman
1960: Kefauver/Humphrey defeats Stassen/Lodge
1964: Humphrey/Sanford defeats Nixon/Scranton
1968: Humphrey/Sanford defeats Goldwater/Rhodes
1972: Rockefeller/Chafee defeats Jackson/Muskie
1976: Rockefeller/Chafee defeats R. Kennedy/Carter
1980: Chafee/Anderson defeats Byrd/Udall
1984: Bentsen/Hart defeats Schweiker/Grissom
1988: Bentsen/Hart defeats Sununu/Bush
1992: Jeffords/Wilson defeats Hart/Gore
1996: Jeffords/Wilson defeats Biden/Dukakis
2000: Wilder/Graham defeats Wilson/Smith
2004: Wilder/Graham defeats Hagel/Kolbe
2008: Murkowski/Castle defeats Graham/Edwards
 
That list of U.S. presidents in the timeline was good until Lisa Murkowski. She largely owes her political career to her father, and with butterflies, I just don't see it. As for other quibbles with the vague timeline as proposed thus far, I will keep them to myself.
 
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