Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun

Always interesting to see archery still relevant at a date so late.
Funny enough, Saru was originally lusting after Nobunaga’s sister/Cha cha’s mother. In terms of “karmic retribution”, I guess a thesis of this TL is that Japan remains more militarized in a world where their borders are wide open and they engage in some level of commercial and territorial expansion, thus making periodic civil wars and rebellions more likely and pressuring the realm towards different directions. After all, the Tokugawa Shogunate worked best in a Japan in a stage of sakoku.
Is it more of a flaw inherent to the Azuchi system? Sakoku understandably brought stability, but observe how England only had one set of civil wars after the Wars of the Roses since every other rebellion ended fairly quickly (i.e. Glorious Revolution) or was localized to a given area (i.e. the Jacobites). France didn't have too many either (Wars of Religion and Fronde being an obvious exception). I guess in terms of Asia, Ming did have some prince or another rebelling every few decades or so, but even they rarely tore apart the whole nation.

Hopefully someone figures out a permanent solution because I have a feeling heads will role no matter who wins.
Kyoto, eh? That’s the imperial capital, me thinks the emperor is going to intervene somehow and put an end to the civil war (or at least start the process to or make an attempt to).
Last time the emperor personally intervened in a dysfunctional Shogunate, most of the Shogunate's ruling class ended up dead and Japan enjoyed a 60 year civil war in the aftermath. So probably not a good idea since aside from the generational civil war problem, the Oda are actually decent at ensuring a good economy.

Speaking of which, just how bad for the economy are these civil wars? What does the merchant class do, for instance?
 
Always interesting to see archery still relevant at a date so late.

Is it more of a flaw inherent to the Azuchi system? Sakoku understandably brought stability, but observe how England only had one set of civil wars after the Wars of the Roses since every other rebellion ended fairly quickly (i.e. Glorious Revolution) or was localized to a given area (i.e. the Jacobites). France didn't have too many either (Wars of Religion and Fronde being an obvious exception). I guess in terms of Asia, Ming did have some prince or another rebelling every few decades or so, but even they rarely tore apart the whole nation.
Sakoku contributed to demilitarization in some sense. ITTL, the fact that wars were fought against foreign powers meant that the government continued to push through technological advancements in the military and didn’t demilitarize the country even though the samurai do transition more towards civilian roles like IOTL because of unification.

Of course, the fact that the Azuchi daijo-fu is by default a mixture of samurai and imperial institutions does allow something like this to occur, although had the Tokugawa shogunate had a child become the head of the Tokugawa clan a lot earlier that could’ve led to some level of instability (it didn’t happen until 1712 IOTL). Also, the Tokugawa set up the most stable succession plans of all time with the destination of the Gosanke (御三家) and later the Gosankyo (御三卿).
Speaking of which, just how bad for the economy are these civil wars? What does the merchant class do, for instance?
Obviously there’s the impact upon the countryside and inland trade in eastern Japan. When it comes to maritime trade, the Furuwatari War had nearly no effect whereas in this one Sakai is definitely hurt for sure. But if you’re in Kyushu or the Mōri clan, yeah you’re still doing relatively well.

Also a by-product of the Furuwatari War was the creation of urban councils of merchants and craftsmen in the major urban centers as part of the Kanei Reforms so politically speaking merchants actually benefited.
 
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Chapter 89: Manji War Part VI - A Betrayal and a Coup

Chapter 89: Manji War Part VI - A Betrayal and a Coup


The rest of the realm did not remain quiet during the leadup to the Battle of Bingo-Kibitsu between uncle and nephew. In the north, Kasugayama Castle fell in May to Sakuma Moritora’s army and the rest of Echigo province soon followed along with the Nagao clan. Remnants of Tomoaki’s Echigo army along with men from the retinues of Shinano daimyo and Mori Tomoyoshi gathered at Kawanakajima where they confronted the Tiger of the North, whose forces were further reinforced by the Takigawa clan. At what is often labeled as the 6th Battle of Kawanakajima on July 17th in reference to the 5 previous battles between Uesugi Kenshin and Takeda Shingen at the same location, Moritora won another decisive victory against the rebels, further scattering their forces. The Tokugawa forces also began to weaken in the face of reinforcements in Owari from Kitabatake Takanaga’s contingents and on the border of Suruga province from men from the Kanto region. Aside from Tomoyoshi’s triumph over Konoe Toshishige and Miyoshi Yasunori, the only other signs of hope for the rebellion were in the Seto Inland Sea, where the combined naval forces of the Mōriand Shimazu clan as well as the Nagasaki squadron of the Azuchi navy took control and ended the blockade of Hyogo, allowing much-needed aid to reach the Ikeda, who were completely encircled on land and heavily outnumbered.​

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The battlefield of Kawanakajima, the site of countless battles including the 6th one in 1661​

Meanwhile, the defeated Azuchi army had retreated back to Harima province in the domain of Hashiba Hidemitsu where Miyoshi Yasunori devised a new plan. Having suffered significant losses at the hands of Tomoyoshi, Toshishige’s main man on the battlefield sought to avoid direct battle for the time being. Instead, he reinforced and supplied many of the castles between him and the enemy, hoping to weigh Tomoyoshi down in a series of sieges, attrition, and hit-and-run assaults by contingents of the Azuchi army until Hyogo fell and men could be diverted from the promising eastern front. This grand strategy by Yasunori, however, would never play out for his loss at Bingo-Kibitsu would reverberate across the rest of the realm, particularly in the imperial court and in the camp of the Chinjufu shogun, Sakuma Moritora.

Moritora received the news of the Battle of Bingo-Kibitsu shortly after his victory at Kawanakajima and was shocked that not even Miyoshi Yasunori, with his wealth of experience and the legitimacy of the government behind him, could stand against the might of Kanbe Tomoyoshi. Deep in his heart, he knew that the rebels now had the momentum, with Tomoyoshi even likely to reinvigorate the rebellion in the east, but that under the current circumstances any path to victory for either side would be prolonged and bloodstained. Under such a scenario, it was inevitable that his men would bear the brunt of the bloodshed and for Moritora, that alone was unacceptable. If the war came down that way, the sanctity of his clan and his domain was in jeopardy, and amidst the prolonged strife the Russians might even swipe Karafuto from Japanese hands. On one chilly night in his camp, the Tiger of the North decided on a course of action no one would’ve or could’ve predicted.

The next day, he sent a messenger to Oda Nagaaki, indicating that he was interested in switching sides against Azuchi and the regime of the kōbu kanpaku for the sake of peace and stability sooner rather than later. He promised to fully return the lands he had seized in Echigo and Shinano in return for greater support from Azuchi in the northern reaches of the Japanese realm, namely Ezo and Karafuto. As eager as his counterpart for peace, the 17 year old Oda Nagaaki accepted the terms and upon confirmation, the two men, once enemies, would stand together against Toshishige’s regime. Moritora’s defection to the rebel side would prove monumental, for over the next few weeks all of the daimyo in the Oshu region would follow his lead with the exception of the Date clan, which remained embroiled in its own political chaos. Many Kanto lords would do so as well, although the Satake, Musashino, and Murai clans would remain on Azuchi’s side for the time being.

Events in Kyoto would also turn in favor of the rebellion. Under Konoe Toshishige’s regency over the court and the chancellorate, the court nobility had largely been supportive due to their expanded power and their interests being attended to more than ever. One notable reception was Takatsukasa Norihira (鷹司教平), one of the heads of the 5 sekke (摂家) families who historically monopolized the position of imperial regent. Not only did Toshishige’s political rise threaten the tradition of the heads of the sekke taking turns being the imperial regent but the kōbu kanpaku left Norihira out of political affairs, as the latter was considered Toshishige’s chief rival among the court nobility. Norihira had therefore consigned himself to de facto political exile for the rest of his life. However, he found newfound opportunity in the changing situation in the civil war, particularly after Toshishige left the area, leaving a handful of lower-ranking loyalists to look after Oda Nobuhiro in the kōbu kanpaku’s absence. A month after the Battle of Bingo-Kibitsu, in what would be known as the Kanbun Coup (寛文の政変) Norihira along with sympathetic nobles returned to the imperial palace, orchestrating a nonviolent coup of the court and installing the retired emperor Go-Mizunoo, by now an elderly man of 73, back as the chief authority at court. Through the guidance of Norihira, Go-Mizunoo issued a series of decrees, or inzen (院宣) [1], that made Takatsukasa Norihira the new imperial regent and charged any enemies of the deposed Konoe Toshishige with the duty of disposing of him and any who supported him. Now, Konoe Toshishige was the enemy of the imperial court, not the late Oda Tomoaki or any of the rebels.

The Kanbun Coup together with the key defection of Sakuma Moritora dropped the morale of the armies of the old government and incurred even more defections to the rebel side, now legitimized as the pro-imperial faction. In a move of desperation, Konoe Toshishige would leave Miyoshi Yasunori to the task of defending against Tomoyoshi’s onslaught, leading a small army to tend to the recent upheaval in Kyoto, to ideally resolve the recent coup and secure the loyalty of Azuchi and its surroundings. Meanwhile, Yasunori would reverse his decision to fight Tomoyoshi’s forces in a drawn out series of sieges, resolving to confront him in pitched battle in the hope of beating him and regaining momentum. He marched towards Tomoyoshi in October, who was besieging Tsuyama Castle (津山城) in Mimasaka province, and the two armies clashed at the village of Misaki (美咲). Yasunori led an army of 24,000, while Tomoyoshi led a total force of 32,000.​

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Blue = Yasunori’s army, Salmon = Tomoyoshi’s army​

This time, Tomoyoshi had the numerical advantage as well as in artillery, on par with Yasunori’s army in terms of cavalry. As a result, his barrages of cannonfire and arrows punched holes into the enemy before the initial infantry and cavalry charges. Intense fighting followed, with Yasunori himself participating in the battle as he sought to maintain morale and discipline among his men. It would be all for naught, for after 2 hours, his army’s lines broke and the formation began to disintegrate as his men began to retreat. The battle would end in a huge victory for Tomoyoshi, losing only 1,000 men while inflicting over 10,000 casualties upon the enemy. Among the dead samurai was Miyoshi Yasunori himself, who received a fatal musket ball wound while rallying his men amidst the chaotic retreat. His head would be presented to the victorious general himself, who would reminisce of the time he spent with the fallen general, a fellow young samurai commander in the Iberian-Japanese War once upon a time.

The outcome of the Battle of Misaki led to a wave of defections and series of desertions as it became crystal clear that the rebellion, now with the backing of the imperial court, held an overwhelming advantage. Tomoyoshi took advantage of this and would coerce the rest of the Chugoku region towards surrender by the end of the year, and in February 1662, he was able to liberate Ikeda Yoshinori in Hyogo from the 2 year long campaign to wipe out the Ikeda clan by Azuchi. Tomoyoshi graciously thanked Yoshinori for hanging on against overwhelming odds for so long, promising that the greater Ikeda clan would be generously rewarded for their dedication to the cause. Meanwhile, the pro-Azuchi forces in the east were in full retreat, the rest of the Kanto region submitting to Nagaaki and Moritora. The end of the war was near, although more blood would be spilled before it would truly be over.

[1]: An inzen is specifically a decree issued by a retired emperor, one issued by a current emperor called a senji (宣旨).​
 
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Incorrect Quotes:

How to Explain the Oda Civil War to Foreigners:


European Trader: So... What's goin' on?

Japanese Trader: You want the long version or the short version?

European Trader, hesitantly: The short one I guess?

Japanese Trader: S#%t's F#%$&d.

European Trader: Oh. Well, yeah, that's definitely not an optimal situation.
 
I imagine Russia's experience in the Far East will be very different in TTL. With Nurhachi failing to conquer the Ming and Manchu unity collpsing, the Russians will have a much easier time settling attractive (by Siberian standards) land along the Amur. May well end up in competition with Ming over Manchuria. I'm also hoping for a Russian-Japanese conflict- I haven't yet seen a TL that explores the ability of Russia to fight a war on the long logistical tether of Siberia before industrial railroads.
 
I imagine Russia's experience in the Far East will be very different in TTL. With Nurhachi failing to conquer the Ming and Manchu unity collpsing, the Russians will have a much easier time settling attractive (by Siberian standards) land along the Amur. May well end up in competition with Ming over Manchuria. I'm also hoping for a Russian-Japanese conflict- I haven't yet seen a TL that explores the ability of Russia to fight a war on the long logistical tether of Siberia before industrial railroads.
Honestly I would say it comes down to how badly Japan wants those areas because they were pretty close to imploding economically during the Russo Japanese war and the Russians were just bringing reinforcements from European Russia towards the place, while I don't see this Japan here having the same issue it does make me wonder if they think holding into parts of Siberia and then having to keep expanding from there to fight against the local tribes as well as coming Russians would be worth the cost, to the point they could just decide to serve as "protectors" of the Russian Far East in exchange for money and exclusive trading rights, meaning they get the commercial benefits instead of having to settle, defend and garrison the place.
 
I imagine Russia's experience in the Far East will be very different in TTL. With Nurhachi failing to conquer the Ming and Manchu unity collpsing, the Russians will have a much easier time settling attractive (by Siberian standards) land along the Amur. May well end up in competition with Ming over Manchuria. I'm also hoping for a Russian-Japanese conflict- I haven't yet seen a TL that explores the ability of Russia to fight a war on the long logistical tether of Siberia before industrial railroads.
I’ll expand in a future upcoming chapter, but Joseon will exercise a lot of influence in Manchuria, especially on the Lesser Jin khanate, a successor state of the Later Jin. Also the Northern Yuan is also still around to play a part in the region if not a dominant one. The entire northern region therefore pulls in the Russians, Ming, Japanese, Koreans, and Mongols as well as the natives.
 
I imagine Russia's experience in the Far East will be very different in TTL. With Nurhachi failing to conquer the Ming and Manchu unity collpsing, the Russians will have a much easier time settling attractive (by Siberian standards) land along the Amur. May well end up in competition with Ming over Manchuria. I'm also hoping for a Russian-Japanese conflict- I haven't yet seen a TL that explores the ability of Russia to fight a war on the long logistical tether of Siberia before industrial railroads.
tbf in otl the Russians kinda fucked themselves with how they acted so I don't see them doing any better unless different actors run the expedition.
I’ll expand in a future upcoming chapter, but Joseon will exercise a lot of influence in Manchuria, especially on the Lesser Jin khanate, a successor state of the Later Jin. Also the Northern Yuan is also still around to play a part in the region if not a dominant one. The entire northern region therefore pulls in the Russians, Ming, Japanese, Koreans, and Mongols as well as the natives.
I really like that the Joseon are a lot more active than otl due to their own circumstances, and I hope that we see the country spread through Manchuria and threaten the Northern Plain of China when the time is right, especially if the Ming are still around. I defo feel the Ming could survive a lot longer than otl but I don't see them going past 1800, so I wonder what state we'd see pop up by the end too.
 
Joseon Manchuria is cool but I want to see Japanese Kamchatka, Amur, Karafuto, Chishima, and Okhotsk at least. Then Korea can have as much of Manchuria as it wants lol
 
Joseon Manchuria is cool but I want to see Japanese Kamchatka, Amur, Karafuto, Chishima, and Okhotsk at least. Then Korea can have as much of Manchuria as it wants lol
At this point, Chishima is under Japanese control for sure and all of Sakhalin will likely be Japanese by the end of the century. I might give a different name to northern Sakhalin instead of Karafuto though.
 
At this point, Chishima is under Japanese control for sure and all of Sakhalin will likely be Japanese by the end of the century. I might give a different name to northern Sakhalin instead of Karafuto though.
Excellent. Whatever name it has is fine by me so long as it is Japanese.

The Japanese already have Ezo? Did they rename it to Hokkaido?
 
At this point, Chishima is under Japanese control for sure and all of Sakhalin will likely be Japanese by the end of the century. I might give a different name to northern Sakhalin instead of Karafuto though.
hmm I wonder would they actually give another name to northern sakhalin tho, it is more convenient to the settlers to use the same name anyways I think.
 
At this point, Chishima is under Japanese control for sure and all of Sakhalin will likely be Japanese by the end of the century. I might give a different name to northern Sakhalin instead of Karafuto though.
Because of the nivkh/non Ainu people that live in the Flat lands of the north, along with there closer trade ties to continental Asia? Also What do you think the name should be for a southern Karafuto province.
The Japanese already have Ezo? Did they rename it to Hokkaido?
I think it was mentioned that the name Ezo is being used as a descriptive word for all of the northern islands rather than just Hokkaido.
hmm I wonder would they actually give another name to northern sakhalin tho, it is more convenient to the settlers to use the same name anyways I think.
I think he means names for regional provinces of the islands For example Kyushu and Shikoku are not one province (anymore) and its provinces are not called north, east, west, south Kyushu or Shikoku.

Due to ethnic and geographic divides between north and south Sakhalin trying to centralize the regional island under one province may be considered an efficient.
 
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I think he means names for regional provinces of the islands For example Kyushu and Shikoku are not one province (anymore) and its provinces are not called north, east, west, south Kyushu or Shikoku.
Yeah that's very true too.
I think it was mentioned that the name Ezo is being used as a descriptive word for all of the northern islands rather than just Hokkaido.
I think the islands beyond Hokkaido are called the Chishima islands as per otl.
 
Because of the nivkh/non Ainu people that live in the Flat lands of the north, along with there closer trade ties to continental Asia? Also What do you think the name should be for a southern Karafuto province.

I think it was mentioned that the name Ezo is being used as a descriptive word for all of the northern islands rather than just Hokkaido.

I think he means names for regional provinces of the islands For example Kyushu and Shikoku are not one province (anymore) and its provinces are not called north, east, west, south Kyushu or Shikoku.

Due to ethnic and geographic divides between north and south Sakhalin trying to centralize the regional island under one province may be considered an efficient.
Well true but the island name is different from the Han/prefecture name.
 
Excellent. Whatever name it has is fine by me so long as it is Japanese.

The Japanese already have Ezo? Did they rename it to Hokkaido?
Yes and ITTL, Hokkaido won’t be used as the name of the island. That was only adopted in 1869 by the urgings of Matsuura Takeshiro (松浦武四郎) to the Meiji government.
I think it was mentioned that the name Ezo is being used as a descriptive word for all of the northern islands rather than just Hokkaido.
Ezo is as of this point the official provincial name of the island and the name of the island.
I think the islands beyond Hokkaido are called the Chishima islands as per otl.
Correct.
 
Yes and ITTL, Hokkaido won’t be used as the name of the island. That was only adopted in 1869 by the urgings of Matsuura Takeshiro (松浦武四郎) to the Meiji government.

Ezo is as of this point the official provincial name of the island and the name of the island.

Correct.
Icic. Ezo is a great name too. Karafuto could be the name of the entire island of Sakhalin but as I doubt it will be one prefecture like Ezo, your plan to give North Sakhalin another name works too.
 
Icic. Ezo is a great name too. Karafuto could be the name of the entire island of Sakhalin but as I doubt it will be one prefecture like Ezo, your plan to give North Sakhalin another name works too.
Sakhalin Island is a fair size. It makes sense for it to be more than one prefecture.
Here it is superimposed on the UK for comparison. This is courtesy of https://www.thetruesize.com/
 

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