Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun

The TL will extend into the 18th century at the bare minimum.
Sorry I mixed up the dates ye, my stupid brain thought it's + one century instead of - one century...
I don't see China being permanently divided into warring states and colonized by foreign powers, as I see a new reformist dynasty replacing the Ming eventually as more plausible. Alternatively, the Ming could come under a reformist and competently effective emperor now that the Qing dynasty is butterflied away. In short, at least in this ATL, there is some good in the Ming and its successor, as I think they can do better in their foreign policy if they're willing to do so.
Even though the Chinese have tried to catch up multiple times I don't think they would be able to do so eventually. Getting waves of reformers that are reforming for no reason makes no sense, especially for such a huge country like China, so it most likely would be spurred on by an attempt by a western power to colonize it/change trading rights, and the Chinese are not like the Japanese where change comes easily. The traditional beaucracy will always be a hindrance as Confucian ideologies disprove of change, and ossification of society is bound to happen especially if the lands under their influence isn't affecting them that much, and Korea and Japan are focused in areas where China doesn't care about. China isolating itself is still very plausible, the haijin was something that was started by the Ming and there is no reason they change course and become complacent until the country falls apart due to internal tensions.
Related to my point above, I don't see the Spanish being reasonable, instead being very arrogant and prejudiced, in regards to powerful non-Catholic, non-Christian civilizations like Oda Japan in this ATL. Therefore, as the Spanish Empire eventually declines and falls as in OTL, instead of Spain being humbled by the loss of its colonies, there will be people in Spain seeking power to get violent revenge against their enemies for the fall of the Spanish Empire, with Oda Japan being one of their targets.

I don't see Spain and Japan as having friendly relations, ever. So the only way for future Spanish-Japanese wars to NOT occur is by creating conditions in international relations that are favorable to both the Japanese and the Spanish. That means no humiliating peace treaties imposed on the losing side!
I don't expect the Spanish to be friends with the Japanese. I just think they can't do anything about the Japanese if Manila is wrested from their control. Their fleets won't be enough to establish a presence in the region anyways so they would either have to trade through Japan or not trade with China at all.

The other problem is that the Japanese would be the least of their worries. The various European wars would occupy their main focus which the Spanish bankrolled with their silver trade go China btw, and their main focus is on the American colonies not the SEA. Fighting the Japanese will cripple their empire as the Japanese could field much more men and shops due to proximity too.

Finally I think Spain would have been weakened too much to be a prominent actor in the 20th century. When you look at otl the Spanish are already slowly weakening and bouyed by the American colonies. If they lose the way to make money while causing insane inflation to themselves due to the amount of silver they dig up I don't see them being anything but a pushover by the 19th century. They won't be a major sea power when it gets to the 20th century much like otl, and that's not accounting for the fact that the Spanish could be weakened a whole lot faster BC they lose the Chinese market.
Yeah – no. Coupled with the honestly traumatic defeats of the Peninsula and their own against Japan and Maguindanao, the country is filled to the brim with Blas Piñars now. They will put up a respectable effort independent from Spain's.
Can they even make the blackpowder and co needed for an independent effort?

I am sure some of the Catholics would still be able to fight the Japanese, but the fact that if resupply isn't possible the fighters would be reduced to ambush attacks and attempting to make the province hard to govern, which is very much possible, but considering the time period it is more likely that the Japanese destroy the main groups that're attempting to prevent governance. Most ppl still want to farm and feed their families, and that isn't possible when you're attempting an insurgency.

The fact that the Japanese could use settlers from Japan and China and other groups loyal to the Japanese to push the Catholic Philippinos out is underestimated too. There are a lot of Chinese people wanting to leave China from 1600 to 1900 and if directed properly into Beiritou and Luzon I defo see them forming a majority (the Chinese +Japanese anyways) and alter the peopling of the island.
Catholicism was specifically banned because exiled Spanish missionaries plotted with Catholic daimyo to encourage Kirishitans to rise up against Azuchi, so Islam wouldn't be banned unless there was some plot to make Japan a sultanate or something or the Oda doctrine of religious tolerance goes out the window.
If the ottomans or the mughals attempt to fuck with the Japanese I could see the Japanese dealing with Islam the same way as Christianity.

I defo see a bunch of overseas Japanese becoming Muslims and form syncretic religions with Buddhist and native religions (Chinese and Austronesian) too, and it would be interesting to see how they react to additional waves of colonisation in the future.
 
I still disagree with your argument that China will permanently dissolve as a country. I also disagree that China will be isolationist forever as, you have said, reform could happen if a western power manages to open China's doors to international trade. In short, I disagree with you that the collapse of the Chinese imperial system of government is inevitable like what happened in OTL 1912, as I think that after a period of disunity, a more reformist and cosmopolitan dynasty under a competently effective emperor would eventually arise to replace the Ming. Just because the Chinese imperial system of government is ingrained with the Confucian value of preserving the status quo without change doesn't always mean that the Chinese imperial system of government cannot ever adapt to the changing times.

I'd rather see Imperial China as a strong country with a rivalry with the West and other East Asian powers rather than being weakened and then collapsing into the dustbins of history. The anti-foreign Manchu-led Qing dynasty collapsed rather than reform, but I do not see a Han Chinese dynasty choosing that same worse fate.
As I've said on the post where I disagreed I said that a permanently divided China is more 'my preference' than 'what I think will happen'. My main disagreement is that China could colonise other areas at all.

The fact that getting that many competent emperors with the bureaucracy to work with him isn't feasible at all, and a Chinese Meiji restoration is very improbable as the traditional technocrats and nobles in China are very conservative and wouldn't go along with the plan, with the merchants being the only people who would even support it. China would need to standardise the spoken language too, which is no easy feat. The Manchus were just an excuse for the rot the Qing dynasty had, and I have no doubt the Ming would eventually fall under the same problems too due to its centralised structure.

China also has collapsed many times under native dynasties so I don't see why a Ming led dynasty wouldn't do the same. An ossified bureaucracy and military leaders willing to carve out their own spheres of influence, especially in the south where imperial control is weaker is very plausible.
I still think there will be violently vengeful and power-hungry people in Spain who will never ever take the collapse of the entire Spanish Empire lying down.
Perhaps in the 19th century. But probably not in the 20th.
 
I would rather take China's role as a colonizing power in the Europe-less alternate history novel "Years of Rice and Salt" by Kim Stanley Robinson rather than your preference of China being permanently dissolved as a country.
I do think Chinese colonisation is a cool idea, I just don't think it is very plausible considering that the 19th century would be at the tail end of the Ming as they would have been around 450 years, which is a lot longer than usual already. The fact that the advancements in technology was very rapid during that era is very hard for any country to keep up, and that Japan was able to do it in otl was the exception not the norm.
I strongly disagree with you that the Chinese imperial system of government, and China as a country, as a whole will permanently collapse. The Chinese imperial system of government has adapted to changing times before in the past (look up the Southern Song dynasty) before the Yuan, Ming, and Qing, so why not now under a new dynasty in this ATL? Seriously, isn't there a better way for China to become a strong country in this ATL without being permanently dissolved? And don't you think that the Chinese imperial dynastic system of government is worth saving?
I just think a China that gets colonised and then reforms is a lot more plausible (much like otl) would be my guess to how it goes ittl.
Oda Japan cannot proceed peacefully into the 20th century without a military archenemy to contend with. Unless the author states differently, I still think that Spain would be a more plausible candidate as Japan's archenemy due to Spain's religious fanaticism combined with colonial imperialism as well as Spanish prejudice towards non-Catholic, non-Christian civilizations. If you still disagree, what other European power do you think would be a better candidate as Japan's military archenemy in the 20th century?

Well, I think we cannot convince each other with our differing arguments on Spain and China, so why don't we agree to disagree and call it a night?
Personally if you want an archnemesis for Japan Korea is is a really good pick. They'd be colonising Manchuria and Japan would be holding Kamchatka so conflict there would occur, not to mention any of the European states in SEA. A rivalry with Britain or Portugal would make sense if they colonise the SEA and America too.

Yes lets agree to disagree.
 
Going back to just Luzon, should the Japanese indeed take Manila in this war, perhaps the peace can see them gain the island up to here:

Should be a nice stopping point with the town of Pagbilao behind it and the whole isthmus after it as seen in the map below (sorry for the watermark). There's also nothing of interest for quite some distance until maybe Paracale and its gold mines (marked in yellow), and even there, it should actually be about to get empty right about this point in the TL iirc?
Wiki says that a settlement was first established in 1581 and became a town three decades later, but was abandoned by 1634, only to be reestablished in 1638, before being abandoned once more in 1662 until the return in 1687.​

onwardtobicol.jpg


In any case, the next places of note then would be the towns of Naga, Nabua (surpassed by Iriga in later years), and Legazpi. The latter in particular has a harbour (even started as a fishing settlement in pre-colonial times) which emphasizes the need for naval power and could serve as a practice run for later endeavors for those more expansion-inclined (whether just into the islands of Visayas or even beyond) - projecting control over all of Bicol through taking control of the port and working inland from there, as opposed to having to march significant distances overland. At least for this war, the Japanese have the farmlands of Pampanga and Bulacan should they go on the offensive towards Manila, the rugged terrain of the isthmus affords them little for foraging should they go overland towards Bicol.​

EDIT: Added a map of Luzon in with what could be overland and naval routes against Bicol imo for reference
 
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Chapter 91: The Decade of Children

Chapter 91: The Decade of Children


The 1650s in East Asia is known today as the Decade of Children (少年の十年) as Japan, Joseon, and Ming China all saw the ascension of children to the helm of their respective realms. Only Japan would see this result in a power struggle between opposing factions culminating in a full-blown civil war. However, Joseon and Ming China would be hamstrung by the youth of their rulers and the personal interests of their ministers and regents, allowing an increasingly encroaching power to further expand its influence from the new northern frontier.

After the death of the great Gwanghaegun in 1641, Joseon’s crown prince and the late king’s eldest son Hyeonjo ascended to the throne. Hyeonjo would largely continue his father’s administrative and economic policies while presiding over an era of peace and prosperity. It was during his reign that the Jurchen Jin khanate split between the Lesser Jin and the Amur Khanate in the north. Still wary of the potential threat the Jurchens posed to Joseon, Hyeonjo sought to exert hegemony in the region through various means. His court financed economic missions to the two khanates, boasting of Joseon’s rich trade connections with Japan, Southeast Asia, and beyond. Also part of these missions were Confucian scholars from the peninsula who were gifts to the khans as advisors in their service. These gestures were readily accepted and deemed a win for Joseon as the peninsular kingdom began to incorporate the Jurchens within a northerly sphere of influence. Ties between Joseon and the Jurchens were further strengthened by the latters’ entrance into the Ming tributary system in 1649. In the realm of domestic politics, the king also dealt with religious controversy when growing numbers of local craftsmen and merchants in Busan began converting to Protestantism through their interactions with English and Dutch merchants. Hyeonjo would reinforce a ban on Christianity, putting to death native converts while exiling Europeans deemed responsible for the spread of the religion. Although he upheld the court’s continued adherence to Buddhism and Confucianism, many Confucian scholars privately criticized what they perceived as a soft response.

King Hyeonjo died in 1651 and was succeeded by his son Sohjong. However, the following year, the latter succumbed to illness, leaving his 13 year old son Gyeongseon as the new sovereign of the peninsula. Initially, his mother and queen dowager Inseon became the young king’s regent. However, poor health forced her to step back from politics, allowing a cabal of Confucian scholars led by the new chief minister, Kim Yuk, to rise to power. They took advantage of the declining influence of the military, whose power and prestige had peaked during Joseon’s campaigns against the Jin khanate under Gwanghaegun but had begun to wane in the 1640s due to Hyeonjo’s peacemaking diplomacy. The neo-Confucian cabal turned its focus inward, seeking to revive the conservative status quo that existed before the reign of Gwanghaegun by upholding proper Confucian courtesy and practices, perfecting fiscal soundness in government, and pushing back against the perceived excesses of the merchant class. Although Kim Yuk’s policies brought some relief to the common people, it also restarted factional infighting between Confucian thinkers and hurt trade with the wider world. This, in turn, weakened Joseon’s military and political power over the Jurchens, particularly over the northern Amur khanate.​

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Portrait of Kim Yuk​

In Ming China, Emperor Titian started his reign dealing with a revolt by another relative seeking the throne and claiming greater legitimacy through the latter’s direct blood ties with Zhu Changluo, the first son of Emperor Wanli executed for attempting to usurp the position of the future Emperor Zhenchun [1]. Having ascended to the throne as a middle aged man of 40, much of his attention early on was focused on further securing his and his bloodline’s position within the realm, maintaining his predecessor’s expanded tributary system and appointing loyal and just civil servants to Ming China’s most important positions. Nevertheless, his sudden death in 1657 caught the Middle Kingdom off guard and unprepared as his son, the 13 year old Zhu Linyue became the new sovereign as Emperor Yongwu. Pouncing upon this opportunity was the 23 year old Abunai, khan of the Northern Yuan and an ambitious young man. like his father, Ligden, Abunai dreamed of reviving Mongol power. Although as a child ruler himself he had been supported by the Ming court, as he got older he shed his dependence, building his own authority among the tumens through his assistance of his Dzungar subjects against the Kazakh khanate and the establishment of trade relations with Moscow. Now fully independent of Beijing, he gathered an army of 40,000 and invaded the Ming realm in early 1658, overcoming the Great Wall and ravaging the countryside. Abunai’s opportunistic campaign against Beijing would preoccupy the Chinese until 1661, with cities like Lanzhou experiencing brief but unsuccessful sieges during the conflict.​

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Official portrait of the new Ming Emperor, Yongwu​

Although neither realm became embroiled in chaos and internal turmoil to the same extent that Japan did, both would be distracted from their own affairs, their attention drawn away from the Amur river valley and the far north where a new power began to take hold: Russia. After the establishment of the outpost of Okhotsk in 1647, Russian adventurer Yerofey Khabarov continued expanding Russian presence in the region, establishing forts at Albazin and Achansk on the northern side of the Amur River in the early 1650s. His men and accompanying Cossacks would subsequently engage in the violent suppression of the local Daur people and their unspeakably brutal conduct garnered them the moniker Ioucha, after demons in Buddhist mythology. Alarmed by this aggressive activity, Sahaliyan ordered an army northwards to drive out the Europeans in 1652. However, Khabarov and his men would successfully hold out in Achansk and endure a poorly coordinated siege by the Amur Jurchens, who were used to open battle on flat terrain and not drawn out and complicated encirclements of fortifications. After this, Sahaliyan made plans for a concerted campaign led by himself to defeat the intruders, but was forced to change course when conflict with the Lesser Jin broke out as Joseon’s influence that had helped broker between the two rival khanates waned amidst their own court politics. This gave Khabarov and his successors free reign to slowly grow Russian presence in the far north over the next couple years [2].

In 1658, Kim Yuk died and Joseon king Gyeongseon, now 19, began to exert his own influence within the royal court in Hanseong. His first priority was to reinvigorate his kingdom’s influence over the Jurchens. On the advice of the still powerful neo-Confucian scholars empowered during his minority, Gyeongseon would give preference towards the more Sino-friendly Lesser Jin, influencing its khan Gutai to join Joseon in assisting Beijing against Abunai while favoring the southern realm at the expense of Sahaliyan’s Amur Khanate. The latter, sandwiched between its southern rival ostensibly backed up by the Ming and Joseon and the ever-growing Russian presence to the north, desperately searched for an outside power to save it from inevitable defeat and collapse. They would find that power to its southeast beyond the mainland and begin to recover from civil war in the early 1660s.

[1]: Refer back to Chapters 24 and 80

[2]: Unlike IOTL, no serious efforts are made against the Russians after the unsuccessful siege of Achansk.​
 
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Like Oda Japan, looks like Joseon Korea and Ming China are in for a rough time for now, but I hope all three East Asian countries can and will eventually recover from their internal conflicts so that they'll be able to deal with the as-yet-unimpeded expansion of the Tsardom of Russia (predecessor state to the Russian Empire). I can see a future war between Japan and/or other East Asian countries and the Tsardom of Russia looming over the horizon.

I wonder if the Tsar of Russia will eventually assume the title of Russian Emperor (like Peter the Great did in OTL 1721)?
I hope Russia gets its teeth kicked in. Screw Russia, let's have Oda, Joseon, and Ming blob all over Siberia.
 
Ming China, Oda Japan, and Joseon Korea: How about no?
Only even a united and mobilized Qin with great difficulty managed to stop the advance of the Russians in the Amur region (and still there were many settlements of Cossacks and Russian merchants, and after a couple of centuries this region became part of Russia). So I'm not sure that a much smaller Ming, two rival Manchu khanates (one that generally controls a very poor region), and a not too big Korea have a better chance. I wouldn’t even be surprised if there is the notorious Zheltorossiya.
 
Only even a united and mobilized Qin with great difficulty managed to stop the advance of the Russians in the Amur region (and still there were many settlements of Cossacks and Russian merchants, and after a couple of centuries this region became part of Russia). So I'm not sure that a much smaller Ming, two rival Manchu khanates (one that generally controls a very poor region), and a not too big Korea have a better chance. I wouldn’t even be surprised if there is the notorious Zheltorossiya.
The Russians were much more powerful by then and China was always not interested enough, OTOH with the Joseon and Oda interested, they can indeed stop the Russians. They are just way closer than they are.
 
Russia is impossibly far away, overland through mostly wilderness, and the barely-occupied Amur region cannot hope to stop serious opposition from any of the East Asian nations.
 
Those wishing for East Asian countries militarily opposing Russian expansion are going to be sorely disappointed, myself included.
I don't see why you would say that. The Russian expeditions to the Far East numbered in the hundreds. They had no logistical support from Russia, and had to survive by foraging, either hunting or confiscating from the locals. For this reason, any military force from Russia could not be much larger. The author has stated that they were hated by the subjugated population because of their brutality. The East Asian nations had logistical support at hand from their homelands, could field armies of thousands, and were militarily peers with the best that Russia had.
 
Any changes in case of india?
I'll go more into detail, especially into the affairs of native powers, in a future chapter but ITTL the Portuguese are able to fend off Dutch attempts to take their outposts on the coast and the island of Ceylon. Additionally, Bombay is never part of a dowry to the English crown and remains in Portuguese hands as due to England now being Presbyterian, there are no marriages between England and other Catholic powers.
 
I'll go more into detail, especially into the affairs of native powers, in a future chapter but ITTL the Portuguese are able to fend off Dutch attempts to take their outposts on the coast and the island of Ceylon. Additionally, Bombay is never part of a dowry to the English crown and remains in Portuguese hands as due to England now being Presbyterian, there are no marriages between England and other Catholic powers.
You always think things through ahead, you're awesome man.

and the newest chapter was incredible too.
 
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