Realistic POD for Napoleon wins in Russia?

Hi. Basically I'm new and before I try and post a tl I want to gather ideas from other people.
The premise is what it says on the tin: Napoleon defeats Russia in 1812.
If I say anythting ludicrous, or I have bad ettiquette, please point it out as I am new and only in Year 9.
 
Napoleon decides to winter in Smolensk. Fearing the creation of a Polish state the Russians send their army against him in the Spring. He crushes them and forces the Tsar to rejoin the continental system and agree to the establishment of a Polish Kingdom.
 
Welcome!

How are we defining 'win' for Napoleon?

Does he hold at Smolensk and fortify his supply lines while the Russians regroup for winter?

Does he not linger in Moscow but instead burn it down and quickly begin the return back in better weather?

Does he experience far milder defeat but return to the frontier with the Grand Armee largely intact?
 
I would have a revolution rise up in France against Napoleon forcing him to retreat from Russia earlier. The Russians believing that Napoleon is on his last legs, decide to chase after him. This results in yet another major victory for Napoleon.
 
At one point I considered writing a timeline on the subject. My idea was that instead of Kutuzov, another general like Barclay or Bagration is left in command of the army and goes for the confrontation as soon as the war starts. Giving Napoleon the major battle he was looking for and thus forcing the Tsar to admit defeat.

Probably needs to be refined though regarding the specifics.
 
I believe that just after or during the Smolensk battle Junot and the Westphalian corps had an opportunity to encircle the russian army, but didn't. If they did and the army was destroyed, would the tsar sue for peace?
 
Welcome!

How are we defining 'win' for Napoleon?

Does he hold at Smolensk and fortify his supply lines while the Russians regroup for winter?

Does he not linger in Moscow but instead burn it down and quickly begin the return back in better weather?

Does he experience far milder defeat but return to the frontier with the Grand Armee largely intact?


And how permanent does the victory have to be?

Are we talking about a truce that leaves Russia nominally in the French camp for another year or two -a Russian "Peace of Amiens" - or does it have to be lasting? I can envisage the first a lot more readily than the second.
 
I'm surprised that no one has called @alexmilman yet :p

@Parmenion 's knowledge could also be useful
There are two simple options one of which was already mentioned by @Slime_blob and both of which had been screwed by Nappy himself when he assembled too big force.

1st, in the late spring of 1812 when the negotiations about minimizing the French presence in Poland and Prussia failed AI presumably was ready to order Russian troops to cross the Nieman but was prevented by the news of Austrian military alliance with Napoleon. So Austria stays neutral, AI sticks his neck and is defeated outside Russia. No complete guarantee of a peace: there was a big mobilization potential and over 100,000 were already in training. However, a chance for the new Tilsit would be there if Napoleon is reasonable and offers the face-saving conditions (which in OTL were mostly agreed upon by the French Foreign Minister and Russian ambassador but Nappy used these talks just as a smoke-screen).

2nd, Napoleon invades and AI stubbornly sticks to Pful’s plan (Drissa camp, etc.). In OTL the military leadership managed to convince him that position is a death trap but if Nappy has a smaller army this may not be completely clear. So the 1st Army stays at Drissa with Alexander. The camp is surrounded and Alexander ends up being captured. Nappy won a war.
 
Supposedly, when Napoleon marched his army into Vilnius, he is to have said "Here I will go, and no further".
These scenarios had been analyzed by Clausewitz with a rather pessimistic (for Nappy) conclusion. Basically, the alleged quote indicated that his plan failed and he has no clue what to do next.
 
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Maybe August, 1812:

After a long night, Napoleon faces the reality:

- There is no Grand Armee of 500,00- rather there is a Grand Armee of 350,000- of which 185,000 started out with Napoleon in what his successors will call "Army Group Center".

- Even getting Army Group Center to Smolensk had been hard. The pine forests of north east Poland and Lithuania were a green desert as far as foragable quantities of protein went. Foraging had to start early- hardly a good way to win hearts and minds. Desertion amongst the not French in the French army had been steady, despite Napoleon's blend of Charsisma and firing squads.

- Now, another "victory" at Smolensk. A ruined city is in French Imperial hands. Thousands of casualties must be cared. Polish scouts report that the defeated Russian army is withdrawing intact, moral was high and is using "scorched earth" tactics.

- The road from Smolensk to Moscow was straight through the Russian heartland, inhabited not surprisingly, by ethnic Russians- an increasing number of whom seemed to be going into a state of resistance religious exstacy that the secular Napoleon found.... disturbing.

Rising to his feet, Napoleon issues new orders: Holy Mother Russia was being put off- permanently. Half of army group center was staying in Smolensk. Napoleon then asks for a map of The Ukraine- no, Ukraine please. The Kiev, errr.... Kyiv area in particular. If the Russians want their possessions of Poland, Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine back, it was going to cost them.


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-Napoleon tried to draw both the Ottoman Empire and Sweden into war, promising the former Romania and Crimea and the latter Finland. Obviously neither was willing to do so OTL, for good reason in both cases, but either would've drawn significant forces away from the main front. Sweden in particular could've presented a serious threat to Saint Petersburg.

-Had Napoleon brought back the Kingdom of Poland, it is likely that all of Russian Poland would've defected to him early in the war. He would've alienated Prussia and Austria, but it should've been clear from the beginning that their hearts weren't in this invasion. Another idea that hasn't been discussed as much (at least that I've seen) is for him to abolish serfdom. It doesn't really matter that he can't enforce it, the main benefit is that the entire Russian infantry was made up of conscripted serfs. Had they been fighting an enemy that wanted to make them free men, would they have fought as tenaciously against him?

-Alexander ruled out an offensive strategy very early once he realized he couldn't count on the support of the Poles (why he thought that was a possibility in the first place is beyond me), but even after it was clear the French would invade, Russian strategy wasn't set in stone. A significant group, led by Bagration, wanted to engage in a single decisive battle somewhere in Poland. This would've greatly eased the Grande Armee's supply issues, and a victory on the scale of Marengo or Austerlitz might've ended the war right there. Despite its numerous problems, I think the army Napoleon led into Russia was up to the task.

-Failing that, Napoleon should've stopped for the year at Vitebsk. It was a strong position, and would've allowed him months to reinforce and resupply his force. It isn't unreasonable that he wanted to carry on, it was late July when he captured the city and traditionally the campaign season would've had months left, but Napoleon should have read enough about previous invasions of Russia to know what was coming.

I don't know if the end result of all this is a Napoleon victory. He was clearly not at his best in this campaign, and his style of warfare was a poor match for Russian scorched earth tactics. But it certainly wouldn't hurt.

Rising to his feet, Napoleon issues new orders: Holy Mother Russia was being put off- permanently. Half of army group center was staying in Smolensk. Napoleon then asks for a map of The Ukraine- no, Ukraine please. The Kiev, errr.... Kyiv area in particular. If the Russians want their possessions of Poland, Belarus, Lithuania and Ukraine back, it was going to cost them.
What benefit could Kiev have possibly offered to the French? Napoleon needed a swift decisive victory to secure favorable terms, the entire genius of the Russian strategy was to draw Napoleon's army deeper and deeper into the countryside, denying him that opportunity and waiting for his army to die off. Kiev, and the Ukraine in general, was a backwater with no tactical or strategic value. Had Napoleon suddenly decided to swing his entire army hundreds of kilometers south, in the opposite direction of the Russian heartland, all to go conquer a provincial town of under 50,000, I'm sure Alexander and his generals wouldn't believe their luck.

The only useful area of modern-day Ukraine was Lvov, and the Duchy of Warsaw already controlled it. One of the few good decisions Napoleon made in the 1812 campaign was to ignore the southern theater entirely and let the Austrians and Russians pretend to fight there.
 
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