Sir John Valentine Carden Survives. Part 2.

The fact the Army is in North Africa does mean that Sicily is much closer. It would also open the Med for much needed traffic.
Everyone knows Sicily is a potential target, and, so is garrisoned, Sardinia I'm not so sure about.

Take Sicily first, then you can get Sardinia. Depending on what happens after that you go for Mainland Italy, Corsica, or more permanent supply runs to Tito.
I’d advise so also. I don’t think anyone would disagree with a “Sicily First” doctrine.
The issue is, Sicily can't be taken until you have French North Africa. My idea was that taking Sardinia would goad the Germans into Case Blue, and thus, give Weygand all the cause he needs to join the allies.

Tito might be easier after Greece, or at least the Ionian Islands and Corfu. Definitely the most friendly territory to land in. Greece offers the “advantage” that someone in Whitehall may know Boris & Carol might want to switch to the side of someone not called Adolf or Joseph. But that depends on planning ahead to the Cold War.
The Ionian Islands are very close to the mainland, and very far from any air support from anything except carriers.
 
I’d advise so also. I don’t think anyone would disagree with a “Sicily First” doctrine.

Tito might be easier after Greece, or at least the Ionian Islands and Corfu. Definitely the most friendly territory to land in. Greece offers the “advantage” that someone in Whitehall may know Boris & Carol might want to switch to the side of someone not called Adolf or Joseph. But that depends on planning ahead to the Cold War.
Sicily means you can close Taranto as a major port forcing the Regia Marina to move their ships up into the Adriatic farther north up to Venice even and make Naples being a worse port to base ships on the western side of Italy and forcing them to move ships up to Genoa and La Spezia. This give you more advantages to take things like Corfu to help close the Adriatic, cause problems with Southern Yugoslavia and Northern Greece and make it easier to supply Tito. The Western Allies don't have to invade to help Tito as much as keep giving them supplies and small units to help train his troops. You also have a base to help get to Sardinia easier and helps cover a Free French and American Landing in Corsica.
Taking Sicily means the Med is open to having coverage from Gibraltar to Suez.
 
The problem with Britians' better performance (so far) is that it pushed the OTL timetable to left. Husky was only doable with a lot of specialist equipment, especially landing craft/ships. OTL with the USA at war and building shed loads of stuff, it was just about doable. I think Sicily will be taken, but I can't see how it can happen much earlier than OTL unless there are some serious changes in priority. Possibly the abandonment of the Central Pacific campaign (as their is an active front in Asia that could do a similar job if properly supported by Uncle Sam. Waiting in the Med also has the added bonus of seeing which way Waygard chooses. If it's joining the Free French then there's a lot of French forces (once re-equipped) that would be quite useful in any Mediterranean adventures.

This means that the other options are to continue to take islands in the Med. Good practice and all that, until enough landing craft are available or Norway. The Fjords offer protected anchorages reducing the requirement for landing ships and as others have mentioned an attack on Central Norway if nothing else would cause a lot of issues for the German's and would be a crowd pleaser for Stalin and the folks back home.

Of course there is the option of do nothing until the WAllies are ready, perhaps focusing on the land war in the Far East and the Air Campaign against Germany in the short term.
 
Sicily can't be taken without French North Africa, and Weygand is reluctant to all that without Germans first going ahead with Fall Blau. My idea with Sardinia was that it might provoke the Germans into going through with Fall Blau, thus giving Weygand reason to go to the Allies without a fight.
 
Two comments: first, the 1:8 ratio was the other way around. The Norwegian population was about 2.5 million; the German garrison was about 300,000 for most of the war. So per your analysis, the German garrison would have been more like 630...a weak battalion.

But second, the 1:8 ratio I mentioned was observational, just comparing national totals...not, AFAIK, some sort of local-garrison-numbers assignment metric.

We know from historical commentary that the Germans assigned the Norway garrison primarily to the locales where they thought the Allies might want to attack...that is, primarily Narvik because of the overriding importance to the Germany military economy of iron ore from the northern Swedish mines during the frozen-Gulf-of-Bothnia months, plus the other ports to the north even though unlike Narvik they mostly were not ice-free during the winter months, plus all the airfields along the Norwegian coast.

Much of the ~ 2.5 million WWII Norwegian population lived in the southern urban areas, but the Germans didn't consider those areas to be particularly at risk of Allied military action so didn't heavily defend them, other than the harbors and airfields. Most of the defenses and corresponding garrisons were disproportionately to the north.
Do you have a link for a free-to-view summary of what ground units were where and when? All I've been able to track down so far is a Wikipedia claim that some Axis units were in Tromsø.
 
Do you have a link for a free-to-view summary of what ground units were where and when? All I've been able to track down so far is a Wikipedia claim that some Axis units were in Tromsø.
Not comprehensively. This site https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Festung_Norwegen has a quite detailed map of each individual coastal/fjord/harbor defense gun in southern/central Norway as of February 1945, along with some discussion of other defenses. That map I think was commissioned by the government museum of Trondheim, and done by the Norwegian graphic artist and WWII hobby-historian Eric Harburg, whose site is I believe https://kystfort.com/. I think that Harburg did similar analyses of north-central and northern Norway, though I haven't found them available as files yet. And I know that Harburg has done illustrations of German garrison OBs for specific Norwegian locales, as commissioned by various museums. But, I don't know of a comprehensive national German-garrison OB.
 
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One thing about, particularly Churchill, talking up a Norwegian campaign is that more and more German troops get sent north to freeze waiting for an invasion which never comes.
 
One thing about, particularly Churchill, talking up a Norwegian campaign is that more and more German troops get sent north to freeze waiting for an invasion which never comes.
This reminds me of a joke I read ages ago in a Tom Clancy book: 'How many mines does it take to make a minefield? Zero, you only need a press release.'

Churchill 'blabbing' about plans to strike Norway would no doubt draw some forces there, I've no doubt in the slightest a strong reason why the Germans fought for Italy so hard was because they believed his 'vulnerable underbelly' rhetoric.
 
This reminds me of a joke I read ages ago in a Tom Clancy book: 'How many mines does it take to make a minefield? Zero, you only need a press release.'

Churchill 'blabbing' about plans to strike Norway would no doubt draw some forces there, I've no doubt in the slightest a strong reason why the Germans fought for Italy so hard was because they believed his 'vulnerable underbelly' rhetoric.
One of the reasons for Operation Cerberus (AKA the Channel Dash) in early 1942 was, aside from the RAF and USAAF using the ships a bombing targets was the belief that the British were going to launch an invasion of Norway and it was in late 1941 that Hitler ordered planning for this mission for that very reason so to have all 3 Battleships available to defend against such an attempt.

So even in late 41 there was a serious concern regarding a British attempt on Norway although I am not sure what was done to make them think this (if anything)?

So an actual large scale invasion even if a diversion in the far north could result in a far larger response - possibly even the withdrawal of FliegerKorps X from the Med TO?
 
12 June 1942. Rabaul.
12 June 1942. Rabaul.

The casualties taken to capture of Rabaul had made the South Seas Detachment incapable of any further meaningful progress. It was decided to convert 36 Division, from 1st Army North China Area, to an ocean division. As it was the replacement for the South Seas Detachment, it was named the 5 South Seas Detachment under the command of Lieutenant General Izeki Mitsuru. The force was made up of three Regiments (222nd, 223rd 224th), with attached engineers, tanks and artillery.

The presence of strong Australian forces on New Guinea had made the Solomon Islands a more attractive direction for expansion of the Japanese defensive perimeter. Elements of the Special Naval Landing Force had carried out reconnaissance by force, finding little or no resistance. Among the places that had been earmarked for the construction of airfields was on Guadalcanal and seaplane bases on Shortland Island and Tulagi. The completion of the airfield at Lunga Point on Guadalcanal was imminent, and the seaplane bases were both operational.

Beyond the Solomons the severing of the connection between America and Australia was desirable. The New Hebrides, New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa were all good places to cut the route, and therefore the American reinforcements going to Australia and New Zealand. In addition to the desire to cut the links between the USA and Australia, the islands of Naura and Ocean had good phosphate deposits, which were desirable natural resources.

The Army planners' concern of the possibility of an attack from the Soviet Union was looking less likely as the progress of the Germans. This gave the Imperial Army Headquarters some reason for optimism that such an attack remained unlikely, even with American support. More resources were earmarked for the Army in Thailand and Malaya, and General Homma’s successful campaign in the Philippines allowed for the Southern attack to continue.

The Imperial Japanese Navy were still looking for the decisive battle with the American fleet, and the increasing British Eastern Fleet. The attacks on New Caledonia, Fiji and Samoa would probably give the Americans no choice but to commit their surviving fleet units, and so allow the IJN to overwhelm them.

Once the link between America and Australia was cut, then finishing off the American, British, Dutch and Australian forces on the Malay barrier would be completed, and the natural resources of the area be available to strengthen the Japanese economy.

There had been a discussion about bringing the American fleet to battle at Midway, with a diversionary attack on the Aleutian Islands. The advantage of this FS Operation however was that it was much closer to the bases on Truk and Rabaul, and had the advantage of some land-based airpower to supplement the 1st Air Fleet.

Getting enough transport ships together to carry part of 36 Division had been one of the planning constraints, but Rabaul harbour was packed with both transports and escorts as the operation was about to get underway. The main carrier and battleship force was gathered at Truk, and would rendezvous with the invasion fleet at the appointed hour.
 
I suspect it has but is outside of the scope if this work?
All the German ships were sunk when they strayed too close to the White Cliffs of Dover, where a tank battalion of Victors were testing their new 75mm HV guns. On siting the enemy vessels, the tanks engaged the enemy at extreme range and peppered them with AP and HE shells, causing the ships to lose control and collide with each other, sinking rapidly. The crews of the tanks returned to base and had a nice cup of tea and bacon rolls.
Allan.
 
All the German ships were sunk when they strayed too close to the White Cliffs of Dover, where a tank battalion of Victors were testing their new 75mm HV guns. On siting the enemy vessels, the tanks engaged the enemy at extreme range and peppered them with AP and HE shells, causing the ships to lose control and collide with each other, sinking rapidly. The crews of the tanks returned to base and had a nice cup of tea and bacon rolls.
Allan.
That will learn the Swine!
 
Rabaul remained heavily garrissoned and was bypassed OTL , here with less expansion the Japanese look like they will play that card early and further west than Midway. It's actually to their advantage vs the OTL of Midway being so isolated. Their mail is being read though not fully, perhaps some "water processing plants" will need repair on other allied held islands. Although they don't know it of course it's in Allies favour to wait for any larger carrier battles, although if I'm keeping score ITTL the US has lost one less Carrier vs OTL but that might just not have been mentioned. Midway was a miracle on top of a hail mary pass gift from the gods in the 4-1 Scoreline - But with British support too the IJN will probably be dealt a crippling blow.... probably. Still got dodgy US torpedoes, the Allies haven't recieve the utter spanking at Guadalcanal from IJN Long Lance yet. If it's not just Carrier vs Carrier , with any night support from IJN Destroyers or cruisers will be devastating, or in range of Japanese land based aircraft it could easily be a phyrric vicotry for the USN/RN - in that it removes offensive capability for a year or more and thus reverts to an OTL like timeline waiting for new Essex class.

Ramp Rat makes an excellent point regards Nordics. That is the inevitability of German victory is already a wobbler earlier and that has to effect Finnish or even Swedish "ahem" Neutrality ( I say Ahem as like the Swiss they profited so greatly from friendly relations with the Reich that their economy to this day still benefits. ). OTL a Norway adventure would make little impact. ITTL anything that causes Germans to redeploy anything away from their sole focus on Case Blue is a help. If it's Nordics great as it might deter the Fins from further Nazi helping , if it's a Wellington in Portugal then Franco is not going to fight the Allies. No way Jose. He's a real politiking genius and will lay little plates of Jambon out if he can be assured of being left alone later..
 
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