I actually would not, Manchuria and Korea are likely to be fully Japanese sooner than later. The Philippines are likely to see a divide-and-rule strategy with Japanese settlement happening in Luzon, Mindoro, and the Visayas and the Moro having autonomy. As for Indochina and the Duch East Indies, I expect them to become ruled by collaborator client states with at least a modicum of popular support. This is a not insane, still imperialist Japan.I would expect significant resistance movements to Japanese rule in Manchuria, Indochina, and the Dutch East Indies at a minimum and probably Korea and the Philippines as well.
I suspect that Japan will likely economically surpass Germany by the 60s or 70s; maybe even the late 50s; with an undamaged metropole and a massive empire to siphon wealth and surplus labour from. Along with Japan's client state approach to its colonies being easier to keep going than Germany's direct occupation of Africa and having basically no enemies who can directly threaten the home Islands.
As long as Japan can keep China and SEA under its thumb, it stands a good chance of simply outlasting both Germany and America. If it has India too then it absolutely will outlast the Kaiserreich and America and bury them under a vastly larger market and gradually squeezing both of them out of more and more of the world's economy as it chips away at Germany's African influence through cynical support of Japanese aligned nationalists in Africa and by supporting pro-Japanese Governments in South America.
Honestly, the nation I see that'll be forced out of the Cold War first is Germany.
Germany had almost lost the war in Europe with its industrial heartland occupied and was saved by pulling nukes out of its ass more or less and isn't actually able to do more than get a white peace with Britain and Russia. Austria-Hungary is also basically unsustainable and is guaranteed to undergo a Yugoslavia but much worse grade implosion sooner or later. Germany is going to have to loot France to the bone to rebuild the Rhineland and still has an unfriendly Britain, Russia, and Spain to deal with while almost certainly being deep in debt to Italy; which would naturally be Europe's primary creditor due to being the only uninvolved great power.
Germany is also almost certainly going to basically loot the French low countries to the last ratchet to try and lower the cost of rebuilding, and its forces would be spread over trying to maintain control over an even larger portion of Africa than it was before and needing to re-establish control of its colonies after most of them got occupied by the Franco-British again.
Germany has also suffered catastrophic proportionate losses in two world wars. With the second world war being as costly as the first in terms of manpower if not more so and having had at least one of its cities literally nuked, Germany is a country devoid of working-age men and its demographics, based on the Russian or OTL German example, are unlikely to ever fully recover. There's going to be a hollow void of working age men that will demographically haunt Germany for generations, while it's also unlikely to ever pass a hundred million people.
Also Germany still has an unfriendly Britain and Russia; weakened and battered as they are; present to align towards anyone who can provide them aid against the Germans. Meanwhile Japan and America have no real proximate threats to their core territories.
Germany is also competing with Japan which has suffered very little and essentially taken over all of Asia and has a vastly larger market and human labour pool than Germany which has the smallest population of the world's superpowers and has no possible enemies able to threaten the Japanese Home Islands. The Japanese economy will almost certainly surpass the German one by the 70s as it exploits the wealth of Asia and threads its influence into Africa (which Germany can barely control since in every world war they have to politely ask for their African colonies back due to France and Britain being able to easily occupy them) and South America.
The Russians didn't have much success in the Second Great War having been unable to seize Warsaw or East Prussia even if they overran Ukraine, the Baltic States, and Finland so Germany should have its East relatively undamaged.
Conversely the French and Brits overran Germany as far west as Hamburg and the Germans never got as far as Paris in their counterattack so western Germany should be chewed up badly from all the years of fighting and occupation.
Italy is completely fine.
The Ottomans were presumably in the SGW and I assume the Russians attacked them in the Caucases and the Brits attacked them at sea and from Egypt.
Austria-Hungary is depicted as at the edge of collapse with it being mentioned that Serbs, Albanians, Croats, Bosniacks, and other ethnicities are using autobombs and people bombs as well as guns the Czar gave them.
Germany won in Europe seemingly because of the nuclear bomb as they weren't occupying hardly any of Russia and hadn't seized Paris.
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