In Islamic history, the Year of the Elephant is when Usurper general Abraha, ruler of Askumite Controlled South-Western Arabia, Is stopped in his tracks by a miraculous plague, as he attempts to conquer Medina, and possibly all of the Hejaz. What happens if he succeeds and Islam is never born, I personally think his army should be powerful enough to resist Sassanid invasion, which happened later, but bad blood with the Emperor of Aksum, would stop any aid from Africa and during the war with Persia, the Hejaz revolts, maybe to be later reconquered or Not. Are there similar movements that could take Islam's place, Could an ambitious Abraha overrun much of coastal Arabia or even doing something similar to what the Muslims did, but maybe only invading Persia as they share religion with the Romans and have no religious justification, How would Persia react seemingly surrounded by Christian states, how would the Askumite Empire fare without the rise of Islam isolating it from trade and would this most likely larger power mean that Aksum continues its expansion in Africa