But at what long-term cost? Ford set a nasty precedent by pardoning Nixon of a crime he was never convicted of, one that I'm sure we're still sorting out.
And it isn't like Ford's Presidency didn't end up all about Watergate anyway. After pardoning Nixon that was the biggest thing about the Ford presidency outside of the Fall of Saigon and increasing economic woes. The best he got was SALT I and most of the legwork for that was already done by the time he got the VP slot.
But at what long-term cost? Ford set a nasty precedent by pardoning Nixon of a crime he was never convicted of, one that I'm sure we're still sorting out.
And it isn't like Ford's Presidency didn't end up all about Watergate anyway. After pardoning Nixon that was the biggest thing about the Ford presidency outside of the Fall of Saigon and increasing economic woes. The best he got was SALT I and most of the legwork for that was already done by the time he got the VP slot.
Think long and hard about what a Nixon trial would have been like in the coldest, non-partisan, realistic terms. First off, finding an impartial jury would have been a nightmare. I'm not even sure if it was possible for Nixon to get a fair trial in 1974. Choosing a certain area of the country meant you supported the defense or the prosecution. The public costs, the controversy... the trial probably would have taken YEARS. Everyone would pay attention to that, and nothing else. Not the economy or foreign policy. It will not just be a matter for the courts, not when it is this big. Congress will be busy planning partisan battles and witnesses and all the rest, especially if dirty laundry about the government as a whole gets revealed. Ford will inevitably have to deal with that given the increased power of Congress-and even if he didn't want to, he'll be even more powerless than OTL. He will be dragged into the trial inevitably, he has to somehow deal with Congress, who will be all about that. No decisions will be made or approved. It will overshadow the bicentennial, probably the 1976 election. And when it is finally over, no matter how the trial turns out, the nation will be partially outraged and ready to go for blood. You think America was polarized before? Wait 'till you see that.
Watergate had taken a life of its own by Fall of 1973. Nobody could control it. What happens if it continues...
The atmosphere, my God...
the more extreme among Nixon's enemies probably wouldn't pleased unless he was publicly humiliated or died or something like that-damn the consequences. To quote Norman Mailer- "we won’t be happy until we cut Richard Nixon’s heart out and hold it high on the summit of the Presidential pyramid while an ooh goes up from the crowd”. This is one of the few men in history who can rival Barack Obama in the sheer bloodlust that he can awaken in his enemies. No charge, no low blow, will be off limits. And on the other side, the Reaganites are getting ready to take over the GOP and might defend Nixon as a martyr, regardless of fact. Forget the senators, think of the mob. It'll be a BLOODY CIRCUS. It'll be a miracle if there isn't violence at some point over the trial. Maybe I'm being overdramatic, but I just don't think it would end well. The vitriol will empower both extremes of the political spectrum, particularly the right. Those that think Nixon is a Nazi and Nixon is a martyr (both ridiculous but prevalent) are bound to clash. The partisanship will, again, make OTL look quaint. It'll be a miracle if anything gets done between the parties.
This is a white collar trial. Very technical, very boring. That will probably frustrate people further, and cement animosity. People are certain not to understand certain facts or ignore ones inconvenient to their point of view. There is also no precedent for a President being tried, with all the inevitable headaches that will come with that.
Remember the state of the defendant himself. Nixon is a lawyer. He will be very clever in defending himself, and probably strengthen his reputation among the far right. He will play every trick in the book. He knows how to bleed things out, use every appeal, stretch it to the point where it is costing billions in appeals. This will be in the type of dry, technical trial where the defendant has an advantage. Assuming he doesn't die (imagine if he coughs up blood or something in the trial) or kill himself, Nixon also knows a lot about our history and about the dirty little secrets about our government, as well as his predecessors, and the precedent they sent in some of the impeachable material. What if Nixon points out that his enemies idolized a strong Presidency until him with examples? The dirt he could bring up, the acerbic jokes he could make, the sarcastic, jibing innuendo that he would raise... I'm convinced one of the reasons that Ford was so insistent on the pardon was that he knew what Nixon the defendant could do to Capitol Hill. Nixon was at first reluctant to take the pardon because he felt that he defend, or at least make a last stand in court and do some damage to his enemies. He honestly felt that he could, and that's not based off of wishful thinking. If Nixon feels like he will be found guilty no matter what, he will have nothing left to lose-and will be dangerous, spiteful, and vengeful. He will do his damnedest to make sure that if he goes down and his reputation is blackened inevitably, the same will happen to a lot of DC. He'll wreck the system. He will make a mockery out of the trial. Imagine how many other trials we will need to set up for Congressmen and senators and FBI/CIA men if all the info was coming out... And Ford is probably going to again, be dragged into it, when Nixon inevitably gets questioned about US policy and the like.
What foreign countries think about the trial is another interesting subject for the wrong reasons. How will Nixon talk about the Fall of Saigon while he is on trial(and Vietnam will come up as a subject), and how will that set off the bubbling right wing in the country (I think they were really strengthened by the Fall of Saigon in the long term)? If the trial is still going when news about the Khmer Rouge starts to be leaked to the world, it will set off more debates-OTL, the opposing wings blame each other for Cambodia. This will only be worse ATL. What will Russia and China and the Arab world about the trial if foreign policy is raised as an issue-remember, the right and left wings are attacking it and the trial would increase this. What happens if they say that they support Nixon? Think about that-America's enemies are supporting the President in a trial against the press and Congress!
What will the world think? I'm not certain it will be a good or admiring reaction. "You are focusing on this idiocy over a petty coverup when you have other serious problems to think about. Your economy, your place in the world, etc... you already removed him from office, now it should be done" Remember-rightly or WRONGLY, a lot of the world at that TIME thinks that Watergate is a coup, or that Nixon's enemies are just prosecuting him for what they all do, or something like that. People will think that the US has lost its mind or is undergoing a complete show of moralistic hypocrisy. Even in Europe, healthy democracies mostly, this was largely the case. To quote one Frenchman: "Nixon was a sacrifice over guilt about Vietnam".
In short, it just was not a good idea in terms of cost vs benefits. I think people will wonder why Ford didn't pardon Nixon if he didn't, and skip the whole mess, and blame him. The scars would have taken even longer to heal, if they ever did. It would have accomplished nothing except giving the media the circus and ratings they want. Furthermore, it would not have set a precedent on abuse of power by Presidents-once the 70s are over, people are going to realize that having an overly powerful Congress wasn't as good of an idea as they thought. I have a feeling that a Watergate trial will not prevent Reagan from taking power anyway. Probably a lurch to the Democrats in 76, following by Reagan in 80 due to disgust, just like OTL. Our foreign policy is still going to hell, as is the economy America is going to seem weak, all the root causes of the conservative backlash are not butterflied away. And with that comes the quiet strengthening of the Presidency again. We might even be more right wing. Point is, it's not going to butterfly abuse of power. The increased partisanship might even encourage it. And no one is going to want to relive the whole process in the future.
There is a reason that Ford's pardon is lauded everywhere, 40 years later, outside websites with an ideological ax to grind against Richard Nixon. It was the right thing, or at least the lesser evil, for the country, plain and simple.
SALT I was done in 1972. SALT II was postponed until Carter partially due to Ford having trouble doing ANYTHING in foreign policy after the Nixon pardon and detente being attacked from both the left and the right-Congress was really asserting itself. You must mean the Vladivostok Summit, etc.
Yes-in HISTORY. At least in 1975, Watergate did not utterly dominate the news anymore and was not grabbing everyone else's attention. The government was finally focusing on running the country again.
Well... that was long. I just had images flashing before my eyes about what a possible trial would have been like, and it would not have been pretty.
