What now for Javo?
- January 25, 2024
The third weekend of January is, to most Chileans, almost a sacred holiday - every two years, it is the day they hold elections, and since the reforms of 1989-90 that ended the chokehold of the Socialist Party on the organs of state and reintroduced electoral democracy, it is the day on which elections, and thus their voice, matters. Unlike other Latin states like Argentina or Paraguay that have had functional democracies for the past century, this is a huge distinction.
With certification of last Saturday's midterm election results due tomorrow, it can be credibly said that Chile's much-vaunted "return to leftism" has probably run aground, as President Juan Antonio Velasquez Osorio's [1] People's Front (FP) that surged in the last several years and displaced the Socialists as the chief party of the left was decisively defeated by a coalition of centrist and right-wing parties over the weekend and which saw the moribund Socialists show life once again, rendering the man who just six years ago looked ready to reorder Chilean politics and daily life a lame duck for the last two years of his term.
Known as Javo, the former Olympic silver-medalist boxer burst onto the political scene in the early 2010s by announcing himself a radical and denouncing the ruling Christian Democratic Party (PDC) which, at that time, was on its fourth Presidency since 1990 and had been the largest party in Congress since that same year, decrying them as vapid, corrupt, and unwilling to push back on rising right-wing forces that had taken over the National Party and were pushing the Catholic Popular Union further towards integralist republicanism. His Vimeo channel, once used for amateur sparring lessons, pivoted instead to political polemics he filmed from the same working-class apartment in Valparaiso where he grew up, with bearded, balding and bulky boxer hunched in front of his laptop jabbing his finger at the screen and, metaphorically, Chile's PDC elites like then-President Jaime Ravinet in accusation.
A sharp decline in global copper prices, a four-year drought that ravaged Chile's agricultural industries and spiking costs of rent in Santiago as the Ravinet government revoked rent control and raised tuition caps at universities sparked, despite Chile's remarkable economic growth during the 2010s (especially in the technology sector in so-called "SiliCondes"), massive social upheaval and Javo's productions became both more radical and better produced, culminating in his decision in 2017 to run for President as head of a new party called People's Front. Leading rallies of thousands of people, Javo shocked the world by making it into the runoff with PDC nominee Ximena Rincon, and only lost to her in the end by eight points in the February 2018 runoff; a new populist force had paved the way.
On the force of this personality, Javo was elected four years later, now with Chile recovering from the rough early 2020s recession that hit South America disproportionately hard, and since then things have been rocky, culminating in Saturday's drubbing. Javo did not have a majority in either house of Congress but in alliance with the Socialists and Radicals came close enough to piece together a rough coalition that has, to be sure, made some important strides in lowering education costs, building social housing that is rent controlled, and reforming labor laws for nurses, home health practitioners and physical therapists. As only the second leftist President of Chile since 1990, Javo has both reinvigorated left-wing student and labor organizations and toned down his revolutionary zeal for constitutional reform, wealth distribution or re-nationalization of industries that were the mainstay of his rhetoric during his rise to power.
To dismayed activists, this disappointing moderated turn may explain part of his party's decline - that and tariffs that have raised prices and inflation in Chile to levels unseen since the disastrous mid-1990s economic crisis that the voters who powered Javo to power consider more formative than the transition to electoral democracy. The other part, though, was Javo's decision this past October to provide moral and rhetorical support to the Bolivian government when it launched air strikes against Argentinean lithium mines and infrastructure in the Andean crisis. Javo's gamble was that Bolivia's cause was perhaps more just and that Chileans dislike Argentines immensely; this may have been true once upon a time, but while Chileans may not care for Argentines much, they absolutely loathe Bolivians, and Javo coming out emphatically on La Paz's side in the brief war with Argentina places Chile in favor of the ethnocacerist alliance that is emerging as the decade's chief foreign policy worry.
Is this month's election results thus a referendum on Javo, whose approval numbers are low and who seems to be increasingly adrift from the electorate? Perhaps not, or at least not entirely. The center-left Radicals and left-wing Socialists did well; while about half of races for the House of Deputies and Senate will face runoffs in four weeks, so final results are not entirely clear, the Socialists had their best midterm performance since 1996, at the height of economic discontent and backlash to then-President Arturo Alessandri Besa, and their leader Paulina Vodavonic looks like a potent potential Presidential candidate in two years' time, something Socialists have not credibly had in two decades. The Christian Democrats seem to have halted their post-2016 slide, while the center-right National Party did better than the two smaller parties to its right (including the Catholic Popular Union) on aggregate for the first time since 2010. The four parties of Chile's broad center are thus doing pretty well, and the EcoPoli, a green party, will for sure have representation in the Deputies for the first time ever. Coverage of the elections as portending a right-wing backlash to Javo seem, at least for now, overstated.
It also should be pointed out that the People's Front is and always has been a personalist vehicle for Javo. At the height of 2017-18 protests it might not have been, and institution-building during Javo's frenetic Presidency may have served it better. High inflation, rising crime, high youth unemployment and an affordability crisis in Santiago are all deep challenges that angry Vimeo screeds cannot solve, but Chile's pragmatic political culture suggests an incoming Congressional majority that wants to make things work; the first half of Javo's term has been uneven, but the back half of it does not have to be, and there is no doubt that in just two years, and in the six since he burst onto the political scene as a force, Javo has already shifted that art of the possible in Chile in ways many could not have foreseen.
[1] Fictional - as promised, we'll eventually land at a 60/40 real to fictional split, or thereabouts