Opening Moves: The Greek Civil War
The Greek Civil War, like all other events of the late 1940s, was caused by events earlier in the decade, particularly during WWII. In Greece, three rival factions which had earlier resisted the Nazis were at each others' throats: the National Liberation Front (EAM), a Communist movement; the National Republican Greek League (EDES) and the monarchist group National and Social Liberation (EKKA). These three factions struggled against both the German occupation and against each other. After the eventual liberation of the Greek nation from German occupation, it was time to form a new government. In areas under their control, the EAM had already set up the Political Committee of National Liberation (PEEA), a provisional government. In April 1944, the elections for this committee took place, both in EAM-occupied regions and (secretly) in the still-occupied cities. For the first time in Greek history, women were allowed to vote. The PEEA was dominated by Communists, with a Socialist President of the Cabinet, Alexandros Svolos. Later that year, in a conference in Lebanon, the Greek resistance movements formed a government of national unity.
On December 1st, the government of "national unity", controlled by right-wing Prime Minister Giorgios Papandreou and British commander of Allied forces in the country General Ronald Scobie declared that all guerrilla groups should disarm by December 10th. The leadership and membership of the EAM could see this was clearly an attempt to weaken their movement, and supported by Yugoslav strongman Josip Broz Tito, they defied the government. The EAM ministers of the government resigned
en masse, and proclaimed the reorganisation of ELAS, the EAM's wartime military wing. A demonstration was organised by EAM on December 3rd. 200,000 people marched down Panepistimiou St towards the Syntagma Square. British tanks and police units were scattered around the area, trying to block the demonstrators. Upon reaching the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, the demonstrators were fired upon by Greek police. More than 30 demonstrators were killed, and another 150 or so injured. This triggered the Dekemvriana, a period of street-fighting between EAM/ELAS fighters and the Greek police, supported by British troops.
Papandreou attempted to resign on the 4th, but Scobie refused it, and by the 12th, EAM fighters were in control of most of the cities of Athens and Piraeus. Outnumbered and desperate, the British flew in British troops stationed in Italy to bolster their forces. Faced with trained British troops, and given that the British didn't hesitate to use artillery and air-power against the EAM fighters, slowly regained control of Athens. In response, and with encouragement from Tito, ELAS began aggressive activities against Greek police and British troops throughout Greece.[7] The anti-communist forces quickly lost control of the countryside, occasionally sending ineffectual air forays to strafe EAM troops. In response to the EAM insurgency, the British brought in more troops, in moves which became increadingly unpopular back home. Fairly low-level fighting continued until a British offensive which seized the plains North-West of Athens in September of 1945. In response, ELAS increased recruitment and with arms provided by Yugoslavia, escalated their attacks on British forces. Although ELAS lost more men than the British, the British position was untenable in the long-term. They were outnumbered by ELAS guerrillas, Britain was in a bad way economically, the Labour government was trying to cut unnecessary spending overseas, and other commitments, such as in Palestine and supplying the Iranian government were stretching scarce British resources.
The British appealed to the Americans for funds to fight EAM, but were refused. The Wallace administration saw support for a government that was so opposed by it's people as relatively futile, and was already injecting a significant amount of money into Western Europe under the Marshall Plan[8]. From April 1946, British troops began to withdraw from Greece, and the EAM occupied Athens. The EAM declared Greece the "Popular Republic of Greece"(PRG) headed by Nikos Zachariadis (Aris Velouchiotis became Defense Minister), citing the struggles against the Germans as the British as a great moment in the national history of Greece, and pledging to rebuild the country for both the Hellenes and Slavo-Macedonian peoples (ELAS contained a high proportion of Slavo-Macedonians due to their lenient policy with ethnic minorities). In the months following, the new government signed a friendship treaty with the Soviet Union and started the "Red Terror", a campaign against former collaborators, Metaxas and Papandreou supporters. Papandreou himself had been evacuated to Egypt, and would later spend the rest of his life in London, where he died a heartbroken old man in the late 60s.
Historians believe that the Turkish decision to allow Soviet military bases after sustained diplomatic pressure was a desire not to antagonise the Soviets, given the triple threat of an attack from Greece into Rumelia, a confrontation with the Soviet Black Sea Fleet (far superior to the Turkish Navy) and the possibility of Soviet backing for a Kurdish separatist movement in Eastern Anatolia (with the ambition of cessation and uniting with the Mahabad Republic.
[7] In OTL, after their defeat in Athens, the EAM signed the Treaty of Varkiza, which abolished ELAS and greatly weakened them in the upcoming fighting. ITTL they do not, and in fact initiate the Greek Civil War earlier than OTL.
[8] Despite the butterflies generated by this TL, I still feel that it is VERY likely that the Wallace government would've gone through with the Marshall Plan or a very similar initiative, and wouldn't have shied away from it as a soft power method of strengthening the US position in Europe.
. The slight (keyword here, SLIGHT) shift is largely due to the influx of Swedish-speakers who fled from the Finnish mainland (The Alanders aren't leaving because the Finns won't let them).