Stars and Sickles - An Alternative Cold War

[Hrvatskiwi]

Opening Moves: Viva Indépendance!

The repeated defeats of the major European colonial powers in the Second World War severely undermined the authority of those empires in the colonies. For instance, the occupation of French Indochina by the Japanese broke the myth of white invincibility, whilst the use of British soldiers to occupy Madagascar on behalf of the Gaullist Free French forces de-legitimised the authority of the French colonists in the eyes of the Malagasy populace.

The Vietnamese nationalist revolution began in 1945, in the aftermath of the Second World War. On August 19, the Viet Minh (a Communist/Nationalist militia group led by Ho Chi Minh) began a revolution to pre-emptively seize power in Vietnam. Under the terms of the Japanese surrender, occupying Japanese troops were supposed to maintain law and order. But unwilling to risk their safety for the sakes of their enemy, Japanese troops stood aside as Viet Minh forces occupied public buildings in most major Vietnamese towns and cities. Notably, French officials detained by the Japanese during the war were not released, suggesting implicit support for the anti-colonial struggle from the Japanese forces in Indochina. On August 25, the puppet emperor Bao Dai was forced to abdicate in favour of the Viet Minh in a ceremony at Hue. Despite the unilateral declaration of the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (DRV) by Ho Chi Minh, on September 2, Nationalist Chinese forces moved South to occupy Vietnam north of the 16th parallel. The Viet Minh did not resist, despite their distrust of the Nationalist Chinese both from ethnic and ideological standpoints. South of the 16th parallel, the British briefly occupied Vietnam. The Viet Minh entered into negotiations with the French, willing to make political concessions. By early 1946, French troops had arrived in Indochina and the French withdrew from their promises of autonomy.

In response to French arrogance, the Viet Minh began a general uprising. Although the initial spark was caused by disputes over import duties at the port of Haiphong, the treatment of the Vietnamese by the French during the re-imposition of colonialism was the gunpowder. Typical of French actions was the bombardment of Haiphong by the French fleet on Nov 23, killing several thousand civilians. The Vietnamese counter-action was to bring 30,000 Viet Minh militia to the outskirts of Haiphong under the command of Vo Nyugen Giap. Despite overwhelming numbers, Viet Minh probing actions could not find any exploitable weaknesses in the French defenses, and withdrew to remote mountain areas to wage guerrilla war. They were joined by Ho Chi Minh after conflict with the French in the capital, Hanoi.

1947 saw large French offensive operations, including Operation Lea, which failed to behead the Viet Minh command structure. In late 1948, losing political will and unwilling to see the wholesale expulsion of French influence seen in Madagascar, the French began to develop an alternative government in Saigon, leading to the recognition of the "State of Vietnam" within the French Union in 1949. The new state was headed by consistent collaborationist Bao Dai. The French allowed the formation of the Vietnamese National Armee (ANV), the core of which was formed from the Cao Dai and Hoa Hao religious sects and the Binh Xuyen criminal gang (which funded itself through control of organised crime in Saigon, notably sex slavery and narcotics). Laos and Cambodia were also given independence within the Union. In 1950, the establishment of Communist control over Yunnan province allowed the overland supply of the Viet Minh by the Maoist PRC. Giap begins reorganising the guerrilla Viet Minh into a conventional army, and after a grinding war of attrition, expels the French by the end of 1955[19].

The French withdrew from Indochina, dividing the nation into the DRV in the North, and the Republic of Vietnam (ROV) in the South. It wouldn't be long before this region was again embroiled in war.

In Madagascar, the war against the French had been comparatively short. In 1946, nationalist Malagasy (primarily from the priviledged highland Merina people) formed the Democratic Movement for Malagasy Restoration (MDRM). Later that year, the 1946 French constitution declared full citizenship for all Malagasy, but this did little to stop French mistreatment of the Malagasy. The constitution also divided Madagascar administratively, and in local elections, the MDRM won the majority in all provinces except Mahajanga. On 29 March 1947, forces associated with the Malagasy nationalist secret societies (VVS and Jiny) attack French plantations on the East side of the island. New historical evidence suggests that the uprising may have been prompted by the British expatriate community on the island, although these theories have yet to be confirmed. What is known is that the reprisals by French colonial police led to large-scale uprisings, led by the MDRM and their rivals, PADESM (the Party for the Malagasy Dispossessed), which was largely composed of former slaves of the Merina and ethnic groups from the East Coast. The MDRM-affiliated rebels quickly took control of 80% of the country, aided by the co-operation of the Sakalava people of the West Coast and the Mahafaly of the South.

The French response was fairly lethargic, given preoccupation with the war in the more profitable Annamese and Tonkin colonies. This allowed the rebels to overwhelm many of the French reinforcements, although new evidence suggests they were supplied by British and/or South African interests, given the proliferation of Sten submachineguns in photographs of victorious MDRM rebels[20]. As the war raged, a civil war between PADESM and MDRM provided a concerning precedent for post-independence Africa. The entire Bezanozano people, who supported PADESM but were geographically close to Merina land, were enslaved en masse, whilst the Betsimisaraka and Antaifasy, also loyal to the Merina, were terrorised as the French withdrew in September 1948.

Upon French (begrudging) recognition of Malagasy independence, the Malagasy Republic was denied French Union membership, as well as the ability to trade with the states of the French Union. To avoid a complete economic collapse, Madagascar was forced to use South Africa as a trade intermediary with the Commonwealth, a relationship which was forced tighter as the apartheid regime in South Africa faced increasing pressure by Congolese-sponsored majority rule groups. The Merina elite maintained it's grip on power by selling the South Africans sapphires discovered at Ilakaka in the 1950s [21], which was then sold for a higher price on the international market. The arms-for-gems deal finally came to an end upon the collapse of apartheid, when the MDRM were overthrown by the resurgent PADESM, who ushered in a period of reconciliation.

[19] The longer Chinese Civil War means less supplies for the Viet Minh early on, slowing progress.

[20] There is some evidence for British instigation of the rebellion, but they didn't supply the rebels IOTL.

[21] IOTL, this mine wasn't discovered until the 1990s.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Bump. Any comments/criticisms?

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Opening Moves: Palestine

In the aftermath of the Second World War, revelations of the horrendous scale of Nazi atrocities against the Jewish population of Europe spurred support, or at least begrudging acceptance of the Zionist project in Palestine. The events in Palestine are particularly bizarre, an anomaly even in an area as dynamic and ever-evolving as the Middle East. What seemed on the surface a conflict between two religious groups became increasingly representative of ethnic tensions. The bi-national state established after the war, whilst intended to be inclusive, increasingly divided the two communities, Arab and Judaic, with policies intended to accommodate both peoples. The dream of labour Zionists and liberal Arabs, a Palestine where the two peoples could live together peacefully, was shattered by the arrogance of Jewish leaders and the insecurity of Arab authorities.

As early as 1930, there was Arab opposition to the British Mandatory authority. Syrian preacher Izz ad-Din al-Qassam led his Black Hand insurgent group against the British police and Zionist settlers in Palestine. In 1935, al-Qassam was disarmed and arrested by British forces, but concerned by the potential uproar caused by the execution of al-Qassam, instead transferred him to French custody in Syria[22], which separated him from contact with the Black Hand cells, which were hunted down one-by-one by British police and Jewish auxiliaries.

In 1937, Mufti Haj Amin al-Husseini was exiled from Palestine and all secular positions of authority by the British, for agitating against British rule. The expulsion of the Grand Mufti and the marginalisation of the other al-Husseini's led to the political dominance of the Nashashibi family. The Nashashibis were favoured by the British as significantly more moderate than the al-Husseinis, and had experienced a variety of benefits from the patronage of the British. The British allowed the Nashashibis to create a police force of Arabs to support the British, paralleling the Jewish auxiliary forces. through the Second World War, to decrease demands on the British, the Nashashibis and their allies were given a variety of governmental roles in the Mandate of Palestine. This would form the nucleus of the independent Palestinian state[23].

As the flames of war burnt out in Europe, the Labour government in the United Kingdom withdrew from a variety of international responsibilities, such as their presence in India, Pakistan, Burma and Hyderabad[24]. Another area where cost heavily outweighed reward was Palestine. In 1948, British forces left the area, handing authority over to the Nashashibis. In response, the Jewish hardline Irgun militia began a series of offensive operations to establish Jewish dominance of the new state. Initial success against the Arab police forces, and some small-scale incidents of local Arab officers persecuting Jewish communities caused some popularity of the movement amongst Jewish populations, particularly in cities such as Haifa and Tel Aviv. Despite larger numbers, the Arab authorities were often outgunned by the Irgun, who had inexplicably (and ironically) gained access to a number of formerly German STG44 assault rifles. Abdullah I of Jordan offered assistance, but the formerly pro-Jordanian Nashashibis had been feuding with Abdullah over a perceived snub at a banquet held in celebration of Abdullah's retitling in 1946[25]. Tensions weren't helped by Abdullah's well-known designs on Palestine.

Rather than take Jordanian assistance, the Palestinian government accepted offers of support from King Farouk of Egypt. A heavily-armed contingent from Egypt came to the assistance of the Palestinian Arabs, armed with tanks and air cover from Supermarine Spitfires, under the command of Mohammed Naguib. Given the lack of a Jewish air force, the Spitfires were of limited use for strafing, compared to the effective Curtiss P-40 Tomahawk ground-attack aircraft, which harassed Irgun units. The Irgun had no reliable answer to the Egyptian Crusader tanks (also ironically named), despite disabling a handful with improvised explosive devices. As the tide turned against the Irgun, the various Jewish kibbutzim prepared defenses against feared Arab reprisals. The Haganah, or Jewish Defence Forces, also prepared to defend Jewish communities from Arab attack. But the Palestinian government guaranteed the safety of the Jewish communities. Experience of Arab hostility had bred a healthy skepticism in the Jews of Palestine, and they refused to disarm. In response, Raghib al-Nashashibi, the head of the Palestinian government, created a compromise solution.

Palestine was to become a bi-national state, where all citizens, Jewish, Arab or otherwise, were equal. A Majlis (parliament) would be established, with at least 1/3 of the seats to be occupied by Jews, regardless of electoral results. The President would be decided by popular vote (and would therefore inevitably go to an Arab, given the demographic balance of the time), whilst the Prime Minister (despite it's name, a largely ceremonial post) by the Jewish population. The first Prime Minister of Israel was Albert Einstein, the "most famous Jew since Jesus" (according to one American journalist), but whilst the Prime Minister was supposed to be an authority for the Jewish populace, David Ben-Gurion held real power, as leader of the Haganah (and due to Einstein's busy scientific career). Raghib al-Nashashibi was President of Palestine. As a compromise to the Jews, immigration laws strongly favoured Jews, and rejected any immigrant with suspected or proven Nazi ties. Furthermore, the treasury was divided into the State Treasury and the "Jewish Development Fund" which was funded partially by the extensive Jewish diaspora, particularly in America. Despite Jewish minority status, the Jewish Development Fund had more money than the State Treasury, whilst the Treasury had to provide funds for both the Arab majority and the financially self-sufficient Jewish minority. This was resented by many Arabs, as the Jews became something of a priviledged minority. Some religious Jews were also opposed to the new state, given it's secular status. These Jews believed the state that occupies the land of Israel should be a Jewish state.

The bi-national state experienced significant controversy over it's name. "Israel" was suggested, but rejected as being "too Jewish", whilst "Southern Syria" and "Cisjordan" were also rejected due to the seeming encouragement of irredentism from neighbouring Arab states. In the end, the "State of Palestine" was decided upon, for it's political neutrality[26].

[22] - In OTL, al-Qassam was killed in a shootout with the British authorities, which outraged the Palestinian Arabs. Without this event, there is less militant opposition to British rule, leading to less favouritism for the Jews on the part of the British.

[23] - The Nashashibis were historically the al-Husseinis' (or al-Husaynis') rivals, and were essentially delegitimised by their support for British authority, and scattered to other Muslim states.

[24] - Yes, Hyderabad is independent. Butterflies, right? Indeed

[25] - This didn't actually happen OTL, and the Nashashibis supported the idea of union with Jordan, but given the commonality of Middle-Eastern leaders' tiffs with each other, I don't think this is particularly implausible.

[26] - Whilst "Palestine" and "Palestinians" are politically loaded terms in OTL, ITTL they simply mean "from Palestine" without the Arab connotation, or anti-Israel connotation. It's merely a geographical, not a political or ethnic designation.

 

[iopgod]

This seems like an eminently practical, and hence inherently implausible solution (i joke). Good stuff, please keep it up!

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

This seems like an eminently practical, and hence inherently implausible solution (i joke). Good stuff, please keep it up!

Oh, don't worry, peace there won't last long. I have some events up my sleeve for the 1950s...

In fact, speaking of the 1950s, I've already got a pretty decent outline of what is going to happen in the first half in Africa and Latin America, as well as the late 1950s for the Soviet Union. Before going into the 1950s, though, I'll finish the 1940s with a post covering Indonesia, as well as some cultural information and minor events.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Opening Moves: The Indonesian Revolution

Like in Vietnam, Japanese occupation of the East Indies severely undermined the authority of the colonial administrators. During the war, in an effort to undermine the existing social structures promoted by the Dutch, the Japanese occupiers established local community organisations, which provided impetus to the development of a united Indonesian consciousness. The Japanese also elevated notable post-war figures such as Sukarno and Hatta, who co-operated with the Japanese.

After the defeat of Japan in the Second World War, Indonesian nationalists acted quickly to preempt the re-establishment of Dutch authority. On 17 August 1945, Sukarno and Hatta proclaimed the independence of the "Republic of Indonesia", under pressure from radical youth groups known as 'pemuda'. The declaration of independence was well-received in Java, but it was mid September before the outlying islands were all informed of the declaration. Under the terms of the surrender, the Japanese were required both to disarm and maintain law and order, seemingly oxymoronic orders. To resolve this dilemma, many of the Japanese units handed weapons to Indonesian nationalists trained by the Japanese. Many pemuda also joined pro-independence groups. These units, including the officially disbanded (but still operational) Giyugun and Heiho groups (which were founded by the Japanese) quickly seized control of Java. By early September, nationalist militia controlled Java's largest cities and had a presence on most islands.

An unfortunate consequence of the revolution was the treatment of minority groups perceived as pro-Dutch or anti-Indonesian, including Dutch internees, Eurasians (individuals of mixed European and Indonesian descent), Ambonese and Chinese. These out-groups often experienced violence, intimidation and other criminal activity. Many of the Javanese raja (local kings) immediately declared themselves Republican, but outer island raja were often less optimistic, wary of Javanese domination, and often enriching themselves from association with the Dutch. Despite this, the Republicans experienced substantial support from the Balinese, Bugis, Makassarese and in South Sulawesi.

By November 1945, a parliamentary system had been set up in the Republic. Sutan Sjahrir was announced to be Prime Minister, being the third member of the Sukarno-Hatta-Sjahrir nationalist triumvirate. Despite Sjahrir's role as an anti-Japanese partisan leader during the Second World War, the Dutch criticised the new separatist government as ruled by "collaborators of Japanese fascism", and appealed to the other Allies to take action. In response, the Australians, already entrenched in New Guinea, occupied islands in Eastern Indonesia, primarily the Moluccas. Allied forces in Indonesia were under the command of a British commander, Lt.Gen. Sir Philip Christison. In October 1945, the Japanese had tried to re-establish their authority in Java, alongside 6,000 British Indian troops. The pemuda retaliated by executing Japanese prisoners, and the British Indian troops became bogged down in fierce fighting in Surabaya, which led to the death of the C.O, Brigadier Mallaby. After 3 days, Surabaya was taken, with many Indonesian militiamen killed, but the battle was key in the development of a culture of resistance amongst Indonesians. Allied forces repatriated Japanese and evacuated Europeans and Eurasians, who still form a notable minority in the Netherlands, where they integrated naturally to Dutch society.

By January 1946, Dutch forces had taken Jakarta, the largest city in Indonesia. In response, the Republican government moved to Yogyakarta, where they had the key support of the local ruler, Sri Sultan Hamengkubuwono IX. Resistance to the Dutch continued, as they were incapable of securing the loyalty of rural villages. In November, the Republicans and the Dutch signed the Linggadjati Agreement, recognising the Indonesian Republic's de-facto authority over Java, Madura and Sumatra, within a greater federal structure, the "United States of Indonesia", which was to be closely tied to the Netherlands. Issues arose when the two factions signed different versions of the Treaty. A revised treaty was signed by the Indonesians, whilst a severely stripped-down version was ratified by the Dutch lower house.

On 20 July 1947, Dutch forces commenced 'Operatie Product' in an attempt to conquer the fledgling Republic. They claimed the Republic had repeatedly violated the Linggadjati Agreement. The Dutch quickly drove the Republicans out of parts of Sumatra and much of Java. The Republicans were largely confined to Yogyakarta, which came under siege from the Dutch. To minimise expenses, the Dutch seized control of key assets in Indonesia, such as oil, coal, Javan deep-water ports and agricultural plantations. The Dutch military campaign was condemned by the United Nations, especially by Australia, India, the USA and USSR. The UNSC pushed for negotiations between the Dutch and Republicans, which resulted in a ceasefire on 4 August 1947.

The UNSC, trying to permanently settle the conflict, brokered the Renville Agreement, negotiated on the USS Renville, a Haskell-class attack transport ship. The ceasefire invoked by the Renville Agreement (which was ratified in January 1948) drew a boundary along the Van Mook line, dividing Java between Dutch and Republican control. In February, the Republican Siliwangi Battalion marched from the Republican zone of West Java to Central Java, clashing with Dutch troops at Mount Slamet. The Dutch took advantage of this infraction to initiate Operation Kraai in December 1948, a major offensive against the Republic. The Dutch conquered Yogyakarta and all the major Republican cities in Java and Sumatra. All but six Republican ministers were captured. Republican Chief of Staff General Sudirman escaped, however, and continued the guerrilla campaign against the Dutch. Lt. Col. Suharto attacked Yogyakarta in a dawn attack on 1 March 1949. The attack expelled the Dutch for 6 hours, but the city was retaken by Royal Netherlands East Indies (KNIL) troops, and Lt. Col. Suharto was killed in the fighting [27].

The Dutch offensive was met with international condemnation. In January 1949, the UNSC passed a resolution demanding the reinstatement of the Republican government. The United States (turned against the Dutch cause by the perceived illegality of Operation Kraai) cut off all aid to the Netherlands East Indies, whilst factions within Congress called for the cession of all aid to the Netherlands, which amounted to approximately $1 billion. In their East Indies campaigns, the Netherlands had already spent roughly half that sum. Congress was influenced by the Republic's suppression of a Indonesian Communist Party (PKI) uprising at Madiun in late 1948, which suggested that the new Indonesian Republic could potentially be an anti-communist ally. They also provided a positive alternative to the radical Darul Islam, an islamic insurgency intent on the creation of an Indonesian theocracy.

The period between August and November 1949 saw the Dutch-Indonesian Round Table Conference, where the Dutch accepted the Republic of Indonesia's presence within a United States of Indonesia (USI), whilst the Republic agreed to accept responsibility for NEI debt, amounting to 4.3 billion GBP. The Federal USI was immediately embroiled in turmoil. An attempted anti-Republican coup by the Legion of Ratu Adil (APRA), founded by Dutch commando and war criminal Raymond Westerling was defeated, and in response, the Pasundan state within the USI was dissolved into the Republican state on 23 January 1950. This reflected the objective of the Indonesian Republic: the establishment of a unitary, not federal, state. In South Makassar, Ambonese KNIL troops clashed with those of the Republic. The Christian Ambonese traditionally supported the Dutch, and were wary of dominance by Muslim Javanese. These tensions were also reflected in the declaration of the Republic of South Maluku (RMS) which was declared in Ambon. in early 1950. The separatist Ambonese state was suppressed in a campaign spanning between July and November.

On 17 August 1950, Sukarno declared Indonesia a unitary republic. It was a far cry from the old colonial/feudal social order which had been violently overthrown, sometimes excessively, in the Indonesian social revolution. Local civilians rose up against monarchs and other traditional authorities. But only time could tell whether Indonesian society would change for the better, or for worse.

[27] The death of Suharto butterflies away his (this isn't conclusively proven, but is my belief) assassination of military figures which was blamed on the Communists, leading to their purge and Suharto's rise. This means butterflying away the military coup, allowing a less right-wing Indonesia. We'll see what happens between the PKI and Sukarno...

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

The 1940s - A Decade in Short

The latter half of the 1940s saw political upheaval throughout the world, as well as major technological and cultural shifts. The aftermath of the Second World War saw the beginning of a New World Order, characterised by competition between the Soviet Union and the United States.

In Asia, the old dominance by European powers came to an end. Hyderabad, Pakistan, India, Burma, Ceylon and Sikkim gained independence as Britain retreated from South Asia. Further East, French authority in Vietnam was being challenged, and the Dutch lost control of the East Indies, with the exception of the Western half of New Guinea. In 1946, the Philippines gained independence from the USA. US forces were drawn into a major ground war in China, which would rage until the mid-1950s.

The Middle East also experienced the retreat of colonialism. Syria, Egypt, Palestine, Lebanon and Iraq all became independent in the decade, although the 1940s saw relatively little of the violence that would characterise later years.

Africa saw relatively few developments, beyond Madagascar's liberation from the French and the beginnings of institutional apartheid in South Africa.

Argentina saw the accession of Juan Domingo Peron and the institution of his Third Way ideology, which would dominate Argentine politics. He would, along with his glamourous wife Eva, be one of the most enduring statespeople of Latin America. In Brazil, Getulio Vargas was overthrown by a military coup. Venezuela saw an attempted coup against President Romulo Gallegos [28], which failed. As the 1950s opened, Jorge Eliecer Gaitan became president of Colombia [29], which would have major consequences for Caribbean politics.

Europe saw the consolidation of Soviet power in Eastern Europe, and the beginnings of economic revival in Western Europe. The 1948 coup in Czechoslovakia entrenched Soviet power there, as well as being a likely cause for the narrow defeat of the Popular Democratic Front in the 1948 Italian elections. In 1949, the Republic of Ireland left the Commonwealth, whilst Iceland had gained it's independence in 1944.

In the fields of science and technology, massive innovations in computing were made. In 1941, the first working programmable, fully automatic programming computer, Konrad Zuse's Z3, was built. Other utilitarian inventions were also created, including commercial television, Velcro and tupperware, but these paled in comparison with the world-changing inventions of radar, atomic weapons, ballistic missiles and jet aircraft. The quantum and game theories were developed, as was nuclear physics, cryptography and modern evolutionary synthesis.

1940s cinema was dominated by film noir, whilst music was dominated first by swing, and later by crooners such as Frank Sinatra. Developments in pop in the 1940s revealed the existence of a hitherto unknown market demographic. Teenagers, who would become the most zealous of all music consumers, shaping later developments in music. Literature was dominated by personalities such as Ernest Hemingway, Jean-Paul Sartre and Albert Camus, but 1949 saw the politically-influential English-language novel "1984" by George Orwell, promoting the view of Communism as dystopian in the Anglosphere. Beginning with the occupation of France by the Nazis in 1940, Hollywood became the dominant axis for Western fashion, being set by glamourous Hollywood starlets such as Rita Hayworth, Marilyn Monroe and Elizabeth Taylor. Male stars were suave and urbane, represented by personalities such as Walt Disney, Richard Burton and Gregory Peck.

In sport, Heavyweight boxing champion Joe Louis started the erosion of racial barriers in the United States, becoming extremely popular, despite his negro racial background, and became a symbol of anti-Nazism after his defeat of German contender Max Schmeling, Hitler's champion of the "Aryan master race". By competing in the PGA, Louis also broke down racial barriers in golf, although it was still considered by many as a "rich white man's sport". Louis' fights against Schmeling seemed to parallel the experience of the forces of freedom in WWII: initial defeat, followed by resounding and total victory. Baseball saw a huge revival after WWII, due to the return of many major league players from service in the War. Joe DiMaggio became a baseball legend after maintaining a 53-game hitting streak, the longest ever recorded. The 1948 Summer Olympics saw Marie Provaznikova of the International Gymnastics Federation defect, refusing to return to her home nation of Czechoslovakia after the coup. The Soviet Union was conspicuously absent from the Games, having refused the invitation. The US got the most medals, with a count of 84, compared to the next highest, Sweden, with 44.

[28] In OTL, this coup was successful, installing a military government. The coup was in response to Gallegos' populism.

[29] Gaitan was assassinated in OTL, which led to La Violencia, the cause of Colombia's chronic instability in our world. ITTL, he isn't assassinated, leading to closer ties between leftist Venezuela and Colombia.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Yay! So that's the first decade done! Obviously there will be a lot more going differently now that the TL has entered the 50s, but it would be really great to know if I've missed anything in particular, or any ideas for the future of this TL!

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Bumping for sake of discussion

 

[Dan]

I like the pace and I like the direction that this is going. Not much to discuss as I don't think there are any pet annoyances to pick holes in. Well, none of mine anyway.

Crack on good sir, (or madam ).

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

I like the pace and I like the direction that this is going. Not much to discuss as I don't think there are any pet annoyances to pick holes in. Well, none of mine anyway.

Crack on good sir, (or madam ).

Thanks Dan, that's a nice thing to hear from my fellow man . I'll be putting up a new update later today (its 2am here), on Southern Africa.

 

[historybuff]

How about Stalin dies earlier then he did in '53'? How about when Eisenhower campaigns for the Presidency, he publically as well as Privately condemns Senator Joseph McCarthy?

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

How about Stalin dies earlier then he did in '53'? How about when Eisenhower campaigns for the Presidency, he publically as well as Privately condemns Senator Joseph McCarthy?

I'll make sure to look into the McCarthyist movement more, since admittedly I haven't finalised American politics in the 1950s. As it stands, I have Stalin dying the same time as OTL, but I am toying with the idea of his death being connected to Tito. Not gonna promise anything though, since it depends on plausibility, and I'm leaning towards OTL at the moment.

 

[Dan]

Bumping for sake of discussion

bumping to remind you to

POST MOAR UPDATES!!!!

lol - I am actually looking forward to the next part few parts. This could end up being a very different and quite dark line.

(I know you have real life as well so not really wanting to rush you)

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

A New World: Southern Africa

In Southern Africa, the 1950s saw the entrenchment of white-minority rule and South African dominance of the region. The government of South Africa introduced a variety of discriminatory legislation to marginalise non-whites. The first of these was the Population Registration Act (1950), which introduced ID cards for over-18s, specifying racial group (White, Black, Indian or Coloured). This was followed by the Immorality Act (1950), an anti-miscegenation law which echoed of the Protection of German Blood laws in Nazi Germany. A more serious law passed by the South African parliament was the Group Areas Act (1950), which formally segregated residential areas in South African towns and cities, where different races had formerly lived side by side. This act was strengthened by the Prevention of Illegal Squatting Act (1951), which allowed the demolition of (largely black) shanty towns. The Bantu Authorities Act (1951) took this initiative even further, legalising the deportion of blacks into designated 'homeland areas', which tended to coincide with areas of poor economic value.

Equaling residential restrictions in severity was the political restrictions enacted by the South African Parliament. The Suppression of Communism Act (1950) defined Communism so broadly that any "scheme aimed at bringing about any political, industrial, social or economic change" was banned. In effect, anything that opposed the National Party's rule. To strengthen the National Party's electoral strength, the Separate Representation of Voters Act (1951) was introduced. This revoked the franchise of non-whites, placing them on powerless ethnic voting roles. The disenfranchisement of the Coloured minority was considered unlawful by the Supreme Court, when challenged in the case of Harris v Minister of the Interior. The government responded by increasing the number of Appellate Division judges from 5 to 11, the 6 new judges all being pro-government. Having taken away their voting rights, the government sought to force the Bantu peoples into unskilled labour by passing the Bantu Education Act (1953), which enforced racially-segregated educational facilities, as well as a separate curriculum for blacks and whites.

In response to these policies, the African National Congress (ANC) adopted the Programme of Action, a strategy to defy the government through non-violent resistance, inspired by the tactics of Mahatma Ghandi. In 1952, in alliance with the SAIC, Congress of Trade Unions and the Coloured Peoples' Congress, the ANC embarked on the Defiance Campaign, a major non-violent resistance movement amongst primarily Black, but also Coloured and left-wing white (largely Jewish) communities. The government moved to evict non-whites from the historic black cultural centre of Sophiatown in Johannesburg, which was received with protests from locals, who refused to move. In response, in February 1955, Sophiatown was invaded by 2,000 policemen, armed with rifles, handguns and knobkierrie clubs, forcibly moving black families from Sophiatown to Soweto township. The other ethnic groups were also dispersed: Coloureds to Eldorado Park in Southern Johannesburg, Indians to Lenasia (South of Soweto) and Chinese to central Johannesburg. The area was rezoned and renamed "Triompf" and became a suburb populated largely by poorer Afrikaners.

Whilst the National Party was consolidating power over South Africa, the Merina hovas that ruled Madagascar were experiencing crisis. The economy was in ruins, and other ethnic groups were starting to develop underground political organisations to oppose the Merina. In 1952, the Merina elite found their salvation in the discovery of the world's largest diamond mine at Ilakaka, in the South of Madagascar. Incapable of extracting the minerals effectively, the Malagasy sought capital and technical assistance from South Africa and Rhodesia, where several businessmen, including Ernest Oppenheimer of De Beers [30] showed interest in the Ilakaka mine. After Oppenheimer's investment, numerous other mining magnates scrambled to invest. The South African government provided arms and cash to the hovas in exchange for rights to the exploitation of the mine. As expected, very little of the wealth developed by the Ilakaka mine was seen by ordinary Malagasy, who were conscripted into mining, often by hand. They were forced to work, even during periods of extreme heat, with little food or water. Many that collapsed from exhaustion were summarily executed, or subject to other atrocities, such as forced sodomy and dismemberment. This would prove merely the beginning of collaboration between the apartheid regime and the Merina. Moderates within the MDRM elite had been purged, such as Jacques Rabemananjara. Instead, Joseph Raseta took power, and who had been a promising intellectual quickly descended into a kleptocratic tyrant [31].

To the North, the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland (FRN) had been founded. The Federation had originated in the designs of the Southern Rhodesian European elite to gain control of the copper mines of Northern Rhodesia. Although many considered the Federation an economically-sound concept, progress had been slowed by rivalry between the British Colonial Office and the Commonwealth Relations Office (formerly the Dominion Office). The Colonial Office controlled Northern Rhodesia and Nyasaland, whilst the CRO indirectly controlled Southern Rhodesia, although in reality, it was largely administered by Sir Godfrey Huggins (by 1955, the 1st Viscount Malvern). Huggins proposed a unitary state, rather than a Federation, but this idea was blocked by the British, and instead a Federation was preferred by them, who feared Southern Rhodesian dominance of the property and income franchise. On 8 November 1950, negotiations began for a federal state began. Although many issues between the parties were overcome through compromise, Colonial Office Assistant Undersecretary for African Affairs Sir Andrew Cohen proved key in overcoming political deadlocks. Cohen, a Jew, personally hoped that the other territories would moderate white dominance in Southern Rhodesia, seeing the paternalistic racism of Rhodesia preferable to the open White supremacy of South Africa. He was to be mistaken. By 1953, negotiations were complete and a referendum was held (only Whites were eligible to vote), which established the Federation. Legally, the Federation was semi-independent, a "quasi-Dominion", with 5 main branches of government: Federal, British and a branch for each of the 3 territories.

Huggins became Prime Minister from 1953 to 1956 (succeeded by Sir Roy Welensky), overseeing a period of economic success, which silenced many critics of the Federation. Upon founding, it's GDP was 350 million GBP, which jumped to 450 million a mere 2 years later. This wealth was highly concentrated around the white minority, however. In 1955, construction began on the dam at Kariba, the largest human-built dam in the world at that time. The construction of the dam necessitated the removal of about 57,000 of the local Tonga people living along the Zambezi. In the early 1960s, Operation Noah was also mounted, saving thousands of native animals from Lake Kariba's rising levels.

The Federation was initially fairly liberal in regards to native rights. There were African junior ministers, whilst a decade earlier, only 70 Africans were eligible to vote. While intended to appease African demands for representation, it wasn't considered enough, and Africans began to increasingly demand the same priviledges and rights as Whites. British opinion also began to turn against the Federation. In 1956, Northern Rhodesian Governor Sir Arthur Benson wrote a confidential letter to Whitehall criticising the Federation and Prime Minister Welensky. Two years later, Huggins managed to obtain a copy, revealing it's contents to Welensky. British Prime Minister MacMillan did little to prevent the developing crisis, which he attributed to inter-ministry rivalry and Welensky's personal anger at the insults in the letter. British-Rhodesian relations were irreparably damaged. Meanwhile, Dr Hastings Banda of Nyasaland returned from Britain, and Kenneth Kaunda became the leader of the Zambian African National Congress (ZANC). In 1959, the FRN banned the ZANC, as well as declaring a state of emergency. Welensky used the state of emergency to transition the FRN to a unitary state, abolishing all but the Federal branches of government [32], as well as unilaterally declaring independence. The secessionist FRN was supported both by the South African government and the Portuguese, who had recently built a railroad from Luanda to Lourenco Marques through Rhodesia, which was used to export North Rhodesian copper [33].

[31] I'm not actually sure how likely Raseta is to be corrupt. It seems to be quite difficult to find information about early Malagasy politicians. If anyone knows a more likely candidate, please let me know.

[32] This obviously did not happen IOTL, and there would be considerable opposition to such a move. However, the Rhodesian Army is on the side of Welensky and the federal government.

[33] The Portuguese in Angola and Mozambique are ITTL very supportive of both Apartheid South Africa and the Federation of Rhodesia and Nyasaland.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

So what's the audience verdict on a white-supremacist bloc in Southern Africa developing?

 

[Dan]

Powder Keg, loose powder, lots of sparks.

This is going to blow up very badly and has the potential to go one of two ways, either Like OTL South Africa and some as the southern continent moves peacably to majority rule, or, like Zimbabwe on steroids - civil war featuring mercinaries, concentration camps and a covert enactment of the Cold War, no stable period following majority victory and a mass of vengeance and blood letting.

Either way, I'm looking forward to seeing how this will pan out.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

A New World: Blood on the Sands (pt.1)

Through the 1950s, the situation in the Middle East developed into a multifaceted competition that would persist for decades. In particular, the decade saw the rise of pan-Arabism, the division of the Arab world between Republican and Monarchist forces, and the genesis of the State of Canaan.

These tensions developed as British influence over the Middle-Eastern region disintegrated. October 1951 saw the unilateral repudiation of the 1936 Anglo-Egyptian Treaty by Farouk's kingdom of Egypt, legally making the Suez Canal Zone occupied territory. The terms of the 1936 treaty had given Britain 20 year rights over the Canal Zone, and the British were entrenched in one of the largest military complexes in the world, garrisoned by 80,000 troops. On the 25th of January 1952, British forces attempted to disarm an auxiliary police barracks at Ismailia which had been linked to fedayeen that raided the Canal, leading to a firefight where 41 Egyptians were killed. Retaliatory attacks on the Suez Canal garrison troops was condemned by the monarchy, sparking major protests against the government, eventuating the 1952 Free Officers' Coup.

The Free Officers were a cell of anti-monarchist military officers, represented primarily by Mohammed Naguib and Gamal Abdel Nasser, who looked to overthrow the corrupt and inneffectual King Farouk. The Free Officers represented the middle-class, rather than the corrupt elite, and had significant prestige from the Egyptian intervention in Palestine. With minor assistance from the Muslim Brotherhood and the (Communist) Democratic Movement of National Liberation, the Free Officers captured loyalist army officers and forced Farouk to abdicate in favour of his infant son, Faud II. In 1953, the Free Officers abolished the monarchy, declaring a republic. Farouk fled with his family to Monaco, and his possessions were seized and largely auctioned by the Egyptian government, aside from his enormous pornography collection, which was documented, ridiculed and destroyed. Egypt was now ruled by the Revolution Command Council (RCC). Despite support from both America AND the Soviet Union, the RCC immediately began to isolate and weaken Communist elements. The RCC rapidly passed the Agrarian Reform Law, seizing all European-owned land in Egypt, whilst redistributing the nationalised land amongst peasant farmers. To avoid the concentration of land, the RCC limited land ownership to 200 feddans (approx. 200 acres). At the onset of 1953, the RCC outlawed all political parties, including the Muslim Brotherhood, which was forced underground. In February, the RCC approved a secular constitution. After the abolition of the monarchy in July, General Naguib became the first President and Prime Minister, whilst Nasser was appointed Deputy Premier and Minister of the Interior. Political intrigues led to the eventual ousting of General Naguib, as Nasser became the true power in Egypt. Despite his prestige, he disagreed with most of the officers in the RCC, as he believed in the transition back to civilian rule. Nasser became RCC chairman and Prime Minister in 1955, Naguib being forced into a purely ceremonial role.

As parallel events would show, even after the retreat of the British, the fates of Egypt and the Sudan remained inextricably linked. The RCC, hostile to British regional presence, were anxious to remove the British presence to the South, in Sudan. Incapable of ousting the British presence militarily, the RCC instead took a diplomatic approach, noting that the British presence was largely based on the Anglo-Egyptian treaties. If Egypt revoked sovereignty over Sudan, there would be no legal justification for continued British presence. So in 1952, in the aftermath of the coup, Egypt discarded its claim on Sudan. The British began to make immediate provisions for withdrawal. As the 1st January 1956 independence day approached, tensions arose between the Muslim North and the Christian/Animist South.

In 1953, Ismail al-Azhari won local elections in the Sudan. Al-Azhari was a proponent of union between Egypt and Sudan, with little sympathy for the South Sudanese population, who he intended to control through military and police repression. This didn't sit well with the South Sudanese, and on 18 August 1955, the British-administered (but who answered to Khartoum) Sudan Defence Force Equatorial Corps mutinied in Torit, quickly seizing Juba, Yei and Maridi[34]. With independence so close, the British authorities refused to get involved, so Sudanese loyalist forces entered into bloody fighting with the mutineers. Although the mutineers were quickly evicted from Yei, the positions in Juba and Maridi managed to repulse the attackers under heavy casualties. Although sources remain murky, they suggest that the Sudanese loyalist forces that captured Yei engaged in a variety of atrocities, including rape and summary execution of civilians. This galvanised opposition to the Sudanese government, and many South Sudanese joined the resistance movement, which was led by Sudanese army defector Gordon Muortat Mayen. The regular forces of the mutiny were led by Joseph Lagu.

Fighting continued upon independence, and fearing the secession of the South, al-Azhari begged for assistance from the Egyptians[35]. The Sudanese-born Naguib supported the idea of intervention. For Nasser, the proposal was more complicated. Whilst Nasser was a pan-Arabist, he was wary to inherit the volatile Southern part of Sudan. Nevertheless, it was determined that a unstable Sudan was potentially more dangerous to Egypt, and in March 1956, the Egyptian Army intervened in Sudan, much to Britain's chagrin.

Palestine experienced instability on par with that of Egypt and the Sudan. As the forties rolled into the fifties, the compromise between the Hebrew and Arab communities proved unsustainable. Facing pressure from Palestinian Arabs, who were concerned at the integrity of their position due to the volume of Jewish immigration from Europe. The demographics suggested that time was distinctly in the Jews' favour. To avoid pogroms, al-Nashashibi desperately forced an immediate halt to Jewish immigration. This was poorly received by the Jewish community, which became increasingly insular and anti-government. Despite their priviledges, it had become clear that the Jews were still a minority in Palestine, and it was widely perceived that al-Nashashibi had forsaken the Jewish community in favour of the Arabs, who had always resented Jewish priviledges. These perceptions fueled support for the Canaanite Movement, a far-right pseudo-fascist political and social movement led by intellectuals, particularly the poet Uri'el Shelakh (better known by the pseudonym Yonatan Ratosh) and his brothers Gamli'el (AKA Avidan) and Uzi'el (Uzzi Ornan). The Canaanite Movement stressed a secular Hebrew identity, rather than a 'Jewish' identity. They saw Judaism as an improper basis for a nation. Instead, they viewed Jews as ethnic Hebrews that merely subscribed to Judaism as a faith. They also saw Arabs as fellow Hebrews, held back by belief in Islam, which they felt made them "medieval" and "backward". Initially supported by factions such as the Lehi, they became increasingly popular amongst the mainstream Jewish community, particularly the youth, who often distanced themselves from Judaism, and disapproved of the communal tension between Arabs and Jews, which they saw as being caused by religion. The binational state was seen as an inneffective compromise by Canaanite adherents[36]. Al-Nashashibi went into exile in Kuwait, whilst Einstein was overseas promoting scientific education in Europe, and who simply returned to the United States.

June 1954 saw a overthrow of the Nashashibi government by Canaanite militants. Having significant influence over the Jewish militias (which had been guaranteed their integrity by Nashashibi years earlier), Avidan took command of various militias, who were heavily influenced by Canaanism, and took over the police stations, government buildings and post office in Jerusalem. The heavily-armed and competent militias surrounded the small army barracks outside of Jerusalem, which quickly surrendered. The Canaanites declared a new government, immediately repealing the immigration laws and declaring the new state of Canaan[37]. Within a few months, the Canaanites had consolidated their hold on power.

The attitude towards Arabs by Canaanites was odd. They were harsh against Arab opposition, but ideologically supported the idea of "Hebrew (Semitic) unity". Nevertheless, they were very hostile towards Arab states, particularly Nasserist Egypt, seeing pan-Arabism as contradictory to pan-Semitism. This hostility made them a valuable ally of the British and French in the upcoming Suez Crisis. The Free Officers Movement had come to power in Egypt promising to restore the dignity of the nation, which had suffered under British domination. Despite marginalising European influence, it was still a national disgrace that the Canal was held by the British. In 1954, the Egyptians and British had struck a deal involving the evacuation of British troops by 1956, which was carried out. But in June 1956, Nasser nationalised the now-defenceless Suez Canal. As a response, Anglo-American financial and technical support for the Aswan Dam was rescinded, to be replaced by Soviet aid and technical expertise. Finally, after confidential meetings and political contention at home, British, French and Canaanite troops attacked the Suez Canal and the Sinai Peninsula. Royal Marines quickly seized Port Said, on the African side of the Canal, whilst French paratroopers captured Suez itself. Canaanite troops occupied the Sinai territory. Meanwhile, British troops in Uganda invaded the Southern half of Sudan, allying themselves with the native resistance against the Egyptians.

Militarily, the invaders had incredible success. In the Sinai, Canaan's army was almost unopposed, whilst the British and French had seized the Canal almost effortlessly. In Southern Sudan, the stretched Egyptian forces, barely adequate for anti-guerrilla operations, were incapable of standing up to the British force. Politically, however, it was more mixed. Both the United States and Soviet Union condemned the invasion, as well as the UN, and the British and French were pressured into a withdrawal from the Canal. Canaan managed to retain control over the Sinai after the brief war, and Southern Sudan gained independence as "Equatoria", headed by Mayen. Nasser would privately comment that it was "the best possible outcome", having seized the Canal, retained Arab Sudan, and "wiped [his] hands" of the troublesome and underdeveloped South. As it turned out, the South would shortly collapse into violence between the Dinka and Nuer peoples[38]. In the Arab world, Nasser was now seen as a hero for standing up to the West, and it is now known that his repulsion of the French and British greatly strengthened the morale of the ongoing Algerian National Liberation Front (FLN). Abroad and at home, Nasser was strong.

[34] In OTL, this wasn't a particularly large mutiny, and quickly disintegrated into little more than banditry. ITTL though, because of harsher treatment, it becomes a larger movement.

[35] Historically, al-Azhari was pro-union between Sudan and Egypt, but changed his tune when faced with significant opposition to this idea, partly from the South. ITTL, he doesn't really care what the mutinous South wants, and calls in Egypt.

[36] This was a real movement in OTL, although the flag I made and attached is not. Although it was a very small movement, its membership gave it influence beyond proportion. Nevertheless, events ITTL increase its support, making it a real threat to Nashashibi's power.

[37] "Israel" is clearly a name that highlights the Jewish aspect of the Hebrew state. "Canaan" is more religiously neutral, and favoured by the Canaanites, who had quite a fetish for anything related to the Ancient Middle East.

[38] Oh yeah, you guessed it. This is gonna get bad.

P.S. attached is the flag of the "State of Canaan". It incorporates the Star of Shumash, an ancient Middle Eastern symbol.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

No comments on the last one? Really? It has a quasi-fascist Israel and an Egyptian/Sudanese union. Part 2 will be coming fairly soon, just getting some more research done. The second part of the Middle-Eastern update will most likely be followed by an update on the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe, although I may bring up the Belgian Royal Question, although I'm having a bit of trouble deciding what to do. I'm considering splitting Belgium into Flanders and Wallonia, but I'm trying to figure out what would happen to the Congo (I've got no idea really. I've been thinking of a POD for the Congo, but its probably not super-workable). I'll have to do more research before making a decision on that.

 

[historybuff]

One possible idea for Iran is to have the coup against the PM in 1953 either fail, or not happen at all. I think that's the main reason why the Iranian revolution happened.
A fascist Israel, thanks. Thanks a lot.