Stars and Sickles - An Alternative Cold War

Chapter 26: The Dirty War - Algeria and the Origins of the French Junta
The Dirty War: Algeria

As the winds of decolonisation blew many nations from the grip of their European overlords, France became caught in yet another war of national liberation, smarting already from the debacle in Indochina. From 1954 into the 1960s, the French military in Algeria battled the Front de Libération Nationale (FLN), a group expousing both socialism and Nasserist pan-Arabism. The war was a source of instability in metropolitan France itself, which saw domestic terrorism, constitutional change and a military junta as a result of the ongoing insurgency.

Algerian nationalism began to move beyond an embryonic state in the early twentieth-century, when members of the Algerian elite and intelligensia had seen during their studies in France political freedoms, economic prosperity and social acceptance made systematically unavailable to Algerians living under a French colonial regime. Whilst the Algerians had supported the allied cause in WWII, there were uprisings in the city of Setif on V-E Day, which were put down bloodily by French forces. At least 1,500 Muslim Algerians were killed. In 1947, the first Algerian nationalist paramilitary force was established, the Organisation Spéciale (OS), by Mohamed Balouizdad of the Movement for the Triumph of Democratic Liberties (MTLD). The OS begun preparations for armed struggle against France, reaching a peak membership of approximately 1800, but was dismantled by the French police in 1951 following widespread raids and the imprisonment of dissidents. Only the units in Aurès and Kabylie remained active. Nevertheless, the OS was significant in that many OS militants would go on to form the FLN. Amongst those captured in the mass arrests of Algerian dissidents was Ahmed Ben Bella, a WWII veteran who rejected an officer's commission in response to the Setif massacre. Ben Bella later became a founding member of OS. Ben Bella was sentenced to eight years imprisonment, but managed to escape from Blida prison, escaping first to Tunisia and then to Egypt. In Cairo, Ben Bella became one of the nine-man Comité Révolutionnaire d'Unité et d'Action (Revolutionary Committee of Unity and Action) which metamorphosed into the FLN.

On November 1, 1954, FLN marquisards launched their first armed action, an attack on military and police targets. In the so-called Toussaint Rouge (Red All-Saints' Day), a handful of Pied-Noir (European Algerian) civilians were killed, along with two of the FLN fighters. In response to the attacks, Minister of the Interior François Mitterrand despatched two companies (600 men) of riot police to Algeria. Three companies of paratroopers also arrived overnight. Pierre Mendès France, the Prime Minister [95], declared in a speech to the National Assembly that "one does not compromise when it comes to defending the internal peace of the nation, the unity and integrity of the Republic". Despite such rhetoric, it appears that the majority of Algerians were in favour of a relative status quo. Whilst radicals like Messali Hadj had helped formed the FLN, Ferhat Abbas, another Algerian activist, maintained a more moderate electoral strategy, hoping that the rights and privileges afforded to Frenchmen could be extended to Algerian Arabs and Berbers as well. At this early stage, the FLN had at their disposal less than 500 fellaghas (maquis/partisans).

In response to the FLN, a pro-French terrorist group, La Main Rouge (Red Hand) began to operate against Algerian nationalists. La Main Rouge was largely an instrument of the French state as opposed to a vigilante group, operated as it was by the Directorate-General for External Security. In 1952, La Main Rouge had assassinated Tunisian activist Farhat Hached and had been involved in attacks against North African activists for several years prior to the Algerian War's outbreak in 1954. In the first year of the war, Ferhat Abbas' UDMA; the ulama (Muslim scholars); and the Communists all maintained friendly neutrality with the FLN, neither outright supporting nor decrying their actions.

In April 1956, Abbas flew to Cairo and joined the FLN. The FLN won significant prestige from their endorsement by the ulama shortly after. Shortly after, Abbas was imprisoned by the French after French Air Force fighters intercepted his DC-3 on a flight from Tunisia to Morocco. Whilst the FLN position seemed to improve tremendously in 1956, with the exception of Abbas' arrest, infighting amongst Algerian nationalists came increasingly commonplace with Messali Hadj's establishing of the Mouvement National Algérien (MNA), which competed with the FLN. Whilst the MNA's guerrilla forces were fairly-quickly defeated in Algeria by the FLN, Hadj had a larger support network amongst Algerian communities in France itself. FLN attempts to root out this network resulted in the Cafe Wars, characterised by bombings and shootouts in the streets of France, focused particularly around the cafes which provided the de facto communal meeting places of the Algerian community. Both organisations resorted to mafiosi-style tactics, including gangland killings and extortion to secure funding and to intimidation expatriates with wavering loyalties to support their causes. The Cafe Wars continued until the MNA ceased operating in 1964 [96] as a political organisation. Nevertheless, both the MNA and FLN networks in France served as the foundation of their respective rival organised crime networks, which have continued to persist in their dominance of the French underworld. The Cafe Wars cost over 4,000 lives, with over 10,000 wounded as a result of bombings and failed assassinations. In Algeria itself, FLN violence stepped up against potential "interlocuterus valables", whose independent representation of the Muslim communities may be utilised by the French to secure a reformist environment with the French maintaining their hold on Algeria.

With an increase in FLN operations in the Algerian countryside, the Pieds-Noirs, Algerians of European (largely Italian, followed by French) descent began to sell their holdings which had been confiscated from Muslims earlier in the colonisation process and sought refuge in cities such as Algiers and Oran. This influx of hardliners into the cities (where their political demands could be more clearly heard) galvanised support for the French military in urban Algeria. Both the Pieds-Noirs and the urban French demanded a strong response. 'Colon' vigilante units began to carry out 'ratonnades' (rat-hunts) [97] against suspected FLN Algerian Arabs and Berbers in the cities. The complicity of the French authorities in the ratonnades alienated many moderate Muslim Algerians, who increasingly flocked to the FLN.

By 1955, Governor-General Jacques Soustelle was convinced that military action alone was insufficient for suppressing the Algerian national liberation movement. Soustelle wrote up an eponymous plan for improving the social, economic and political situation of Muslim Algerians, in the hope that a compromise solution would undermine support for the FLN and retain Algeria for France. Due to the ineffectiveness of the political process in the Fourth Republic, however, it was impossibel to implement many of Soustelle's initiatives. Furthermore, Soustelle abandoned his reformist strategy for harsher measures after the FLN began to move into urbanised areas, targeting for the first time civilians. The commander of the Constantine wilaya (operating region for an FLN 'army') directed attacks on towns and suburbs, where European civilians were massacred. Their bodies were often mutilated. Amongst the victims were women, children and the elderly, as well as able-bodied men. The brutality of the attacks shocked Soustelle. His harsh response, however, simply functioned to further alienate Algerians, who continued to flock to the FLN.

In 1956, Governor-General Lacoste (a socialist), attempted to abolish the Algerian Assembly. The Assembly, which had been composed half of Pieds-Noirs and half of Muslim and Jewish Algerians, disproportionately represented settler interests. Lacoste saw the Pieds-Noirs as problematic, given their unwavering commitment to the marginalisation of Muslim Algerians. Lacoste granted police extra powers and intensified military operations. Due to the interference of deputies in charge of the Algerian départements, this measure wasn't actually enforced until the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958. By 1956, 400,000 French troops were based in Algeria. French troops continued to develop upon American helicopter doctrine used in the Chinese Expedition, including the use of helicopters as mobile weapons platforms.

In order to weaken FLN influence in the rural areas, the French Army established the Section Administrative Spécialisée (SAS). SAS officers, the képis bleus (blue caps) recruited and trained Muslim loyalists called harkis. The harkis employed by the French eventually number 180,000, significantly more than the number of actual FLN fellaghas. Armed with shotguns, harkis were primarily used in conventional formations, but were also included into specialised anti-insurgency units as scouts and guides. The French also recruited 'turned' FLN operatives, most of whom were coerced into working for the French by torture or threats against their families. As the Battle of Algiers raged in 1956-1957 (FLN operatives committed bombings and shootings throughout the city), FLN infighting increased exponentially. Although most guerrilla campaigns involve some level of infighting between rival commanders, turned FLN began to spread false rumours and plant evidence of foul play. The resulting conflict between FLN groups allowed the French to sit back whilst the FLN slaughtered each other. The French DST (domestic intelligence) also established the Organisation of the French Algerian Resistance (ORAF), a counter-terrorist group tasked with false-flag attacks to quash any hopes of political compromise. It was not all one-sided, however. The FLN managed to infiltrate the French through a 1000-strong harki unit, 'Force K'. Although the ruse was uncovered by the French, 600 members of Force K managed to escape with French weapons and supplies to Tunisia, where they joined other FLN forces.

In late 1957, General Raoul Salan established the system of quadrillage, dividing French Algeria into districts occupied by a standing garrison. This system sharply reduced FLN activities, but tied down large numbers of French troops and was financially costly. The French also established a heavily-patrolled barrier system along the Algerian borders to minimise infiltration from Tunisia and Morocco. They were largely successful, especially in preventing FLN forces in Tunisia from crossing into Algeria. Several attempts to break out failed miserably, with heavy losses for the FLN. The FLN further suffered from the French military's application of collective responsibility. Whilst ethically-undesirable, the harsh measures against populations suspected of harbouring or supporting FLN did much to cut support for the FLN amongst rural villagers. The French also introduced the system of regroupement (villagisation), relocating 2 million Algerians from their homes. By the end of 1958, there was a shift towards a policy of search and destroy, rather than quadrillage, as the FLN began to wither away.

Recurrent cabinet crises back home focused attention on the inherent instability of the Fourth Republic. The army and the Pieds-Noirs increasingly came to believe that the security of Algeria was being undermined by party politics which hamstrung the military's ability to respond to the evolving situation in Algeria. Many of the generals were particularly concerned, feeling that another Indochina was on the cards. These generals were infuriated at the prospect of French honour being once again sacrificed for political expediency. Jacques Soustelle returned to France to gather support for the return of Charles de Gaulle to power. De Gaulle was seen by many in the French military establishment as the only politician with enough backbone to maintain their presence in Algeria. When Pierre Pfimlin, a member of the Popular Republican Movement (MRP) and Minister of Economy and Finance was approved as Prime Minister in May 1958, the generals put their plan into action.

On the night of 13th May, an army junta led by General Jacques Massu seized power in Algiers. General Salan assumed leadership of a 'Committee of Public Safety' formed to replace the civil authroity. Salan pressed demands that President René Coty allow de Gaulle to head a government of national unity invested with special powers to prevent withdrawal from Algeria. On May 17th, de Gaulle answers the call, stating that he is ready to "assume the powers of the Republic". A week later, paratroopers based in Algeria bloodlessly seized Corsica (Operation Corse) and prepare for "Operation Resurrection", the seizure of Paris by airborne troops in the event that the National Assembly rejected de Gaulle's accession, or if the Communists made a move to take power. Support for de Gaulle was quite high, although Jean-Paul Sartre, France's premier philosopher (and noted atheist) expressed dissatisfaction: "I would rather vote for God [than de Gaulle]". On the 29th, de Gaulle accepted Coty's offer of the Prime Minister-ship on the condition that a new constitution would be introduced, investing the President with significantly heightened powers and increasing presidential periods to seven years. De Gaulle further conditioned that he would be the first President under the new constitution, which established the Fifth Republic. All of the French colonies were offered a choice between the new constitution and immediate independence. With the exception of Guinea, which declared independence, all of France's colonies adopted the new constitution, which also dissolved the French Union and replaced it with the French Community.

De Gaulle raised the hopes of the military and Pieds-Noirs, proclaiming "Vive l'Algerie française" in a visit to Mostaganem. Hoping to win over Muslims, de Gaulle proposed social, political and economic reforms. The new constitution had made Algeria associated with, but not an integral part of France (as it was previously). In response, the FLN set up the Provisional Government of the Algerian Republic (GPRA) headed by Abbas (still in a French prison) and based in Tunis. The GPRA was quickly recognised by Morocco, Tunisia, China, Pakistan (which provided diplomatic passports to Algerian nationalist leaders), the UAR and several African and Asian countries. Notably, the Soviet Union failed to recognise the GPRA, despite support for the Algerian cause amongst the French Communist Party. Whilst the French put out feelers for a ceasefire and elections on self-determination, the FLN refused to accept a ceasefire and elections.

Whilst the French military was closer than ever to victory in 1958-1959, having crushed the FLN in many interests and inflicting irreversible losses, the FCP and several other French domestic political forces were pushing public opinion away from a continuation of the war. On September 16th, 1959, de Gaulle changed position, stating in a televised speech that self-determination was the preferable course for Algeria. Convinced that de Gaulle had betrayed them, European volunteers (Unites Territoriales) in Algiers led by student leaders Pierre Lagaillarde and Jean-Jacques Susini as well as cafe owner Joseph Ortiz and lawyer Jean-Baptiste Biaggi staged an insurrection on Jan 24 1960, known as "the week of barricades" (la semaine des barricades), directed by Col. Jean Garde of the Fifth Bureau, the psychological warfare division of French intelligence. The Fifth Bureau had been organised by Jean Ousset, a French representative of the Opus Dei syndicate of the Catholic Church. De Gaulle made a televised address calling on the army to remain loyal and stating that the Algerians will have the free choice of their destiny. Contrary to the expectations of the insurrectionists, the army did not support them (although they were civil in their treatment of the barricadists). On February 1st, Lagaillarde surrendered to General Challe. Many 'ultras' (hardline French and Pieds-Noirs) were imprisoned. Lagaillarde was paroled and fled to Spain, where he and Raoul Salan formed the Organisation de l'armée secrète (OAS), a paramilitary force that proved problematic for the French military, who couldn't regulate their behaviour. In response to the uprising, de Gaulle reshuffled the French cabinet, expelling Soustelle as the Minister of Information. This decision would prove fateful. De Gaulle introduced a referendum on self-determination in Algeria on January 8, 1961, where 75% of voters approved allowing the Algerians to vote for or against self-determination. In Algeria, 69.51% of voters supported self-determination.

"De Gaulle has proven disappointing". Jouhard muttered, barely audible, sitting in a cloud of cigarette smoke. Challe spoke up "he was in a hurry to endorse us when we put him in the President's office. Now he wants to throw it all away!". Salan looked unusually haggard, his eyes faded, in contrast with Challe's empassioned glare. "We have been fighting here for too long to give up now. We have done too much for it to be all for nothing. The path is clear. There is only one thing we can do." "I've still got contacts amongst the tank commanders at Rambouillet. We can be assured of their support" Zeller quipped. The four men sat silently for a moment. The only sound was a vehicle backfiring somewhere outside the small apartment. They had decided on a place nondescript, somewhere unusual for men of such a position to be in. The peeling wallpaper seemed awfully fitting for the aging Zeller, Challe thought. It was more a depressing thought than an amusing one. The silence was shattered as the storm door flung open with a crash. General Massu swaggered in. He was 53 years old, but he had the manner of a man in his early thirties, perhaps younger. He was brash and macho, to the point where it was a little irritating. But he was a capable soldier, if occasionally cruel in victory. "We are doing this, huh?" The older men nodded. It was time. "Prepare Operation Resurrection".

Outraged by the decision to allow the Algerians self-determination, April 1961 saw a military putsch against de Gaulle's government. The so-called 'putsch des généraux' led by Maurice Challe (55, former Commander-in Chief of Algeria), Edmond Jouhaud (56, former Inspector-General of the Air Force), Andre Zeller (63, former Chief-of-Staff of the Army) and Raoul Salan (61, former Commander-in-Chief of Algeria) was also supported by General Jacques Massu, the most fanatical of French military commanders. On 22 April, the putschists seized Algiers. Commandant Helie de Saint Marc's forces, the 1st Foreign Parachute Regiment, seized Algiers' strategic points in three hours. The putschists announced that they rejected the legitimacy of the government, who they suggested had not fulfilled its mandate to protect the integrity of France. They claimed to be taking control to reinstate the Republican order. In Paris, de Gaulle was watching a theatrical performance at the Comédie-Française when he was informed of the coup by Jacques Foccart. Maurice Papon, head of the Parisian police (and director of the national police force) established a crisis cell in a room of the theatre.

On the afternoon of 21st April, the generals seized control of Algiers, Oran and Constantine [98]. Putschist forces, led by Col. Antoine Argoud, seized Parisian airfields and fanned out into the city. Whilst de Gaulle made frenzied calls for solidarity over television, armoured forces based at Rambouillet drove towards the city centre, rendezvousing with putschist commando forces. The majority of key strategic installations were captured by the 23rd, although a fierce firefight broke out as Sûreté Nationale (National Police) forces defending the Comédie-Française attempted to repel putschist paratroopers. Despite their brave stand, the police forces were outgunned by the putschists, who were reinforced by armoured vehicles which covered their advance into the building. De Gaulle was arrested inside the building, and although it is said that he spat at General Massu, who had come to oversee the seizure of the city. It is also rumoured that de Gaulle struck one of the parachutists, who tried to forcibly arrest him. De Gaulle walked out of the building with free hands. Nevertheless his escort of armed paratroopers suggested he was anything but free. The putsch had taken control of the city. Massive demonstrations by civilians, orchestrated by the Communist Party, were put down forcibly, in an incident that became known as 'Red Monday'. Communist activists had attempted to incite the crowd with had gathered under the Arc du Triomphe to violence, providing the military forces which surrounded them with a pretext to fire upon the protestors. Several hundred were caught in the crossfire, with 83 killed.

[95] Actually, 'President of the French Council of Ministers', but I have chosen to use the term Prime Minister because it is shorter and clearer in function to many English-speakers unfamiliar with French politics (like myself).

[96] Whilst historically, the FLN gained the upper hand and virtually-crushed the MNA, the Cafe Wars did continue until Algeria's independence. ITTL, with the failure of the Algerian independence movement, both devolve into organised-crime networks.

[97] 'Ratons' (rats) was a common slur for Algerian Muslims in French Algeria.

[98] Historically, the commanders at Oran and Constantine refused to join the coup. ITTL, that is not the case (different commanders due to butterflies).

BELOW: Jean Martin as General Massu in the film 'The Tale of Two Cities: The Battles for Paris and Algiers'.

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My next update will be on India. Despite my earlier posts being to the contrary, I will probably not involve an independent Hyderabad. Also, I cannot say with certainty when it will be up, given that my university exams start on the 1 November, and I'm trying to get into a competitive-entry law school.

But would love to hear any thoughts/questions about the previous post or the future of this timeline. Despite the hiatus, I won't be abandoning it. :)
 
Chapter 27: Two Peoples? Two Nations? - India and Pakistan (Until 1960)
Two Peoples? Two Nations? (India and Pakistan: 1945-1959)

The winds of change were blowing through the Indian subcontinent. The efforts of nationalists to remove the people from the yoke of the British Raj had paid off. The British had promised to provide independence to India, their richest, largest, most populous imperial possession. They had once said that the sun never sets on the British Empire. Now, surely, it was at its twilight.

Whilst the desire for independence for British India was virtually unanimous, there was a division between those who wanted a united India and those that wanted a separate state for India's large Muslim population. Muhammad Iqbal, a major Muslim community leader, articulated such a view in his 1930 address to the All India Muslim League in Lahore: "I would like to see Punjab, North-West Frontier Province, Sindh and Baluchistan amalgamated into a single state... the formation of a consolidated North-West Indian Muslim state appears to me to be the final destiny of the Muslims, at least of North-West India". The term 'Pakistan' itself, meaning "land of the pure" was developed by Muslim nationalist Choudhry Rahmat Ali. A decade later, at the 1940 Muslim League Conference (also in Lahore), Muhammad Ali Jinnah, the leader of the movement, reaffirmed the argument for an independent Indian Muslim state: "Hindus and the Muslims belong to two different religions, philosophies, social customs and literature... it is quite clear that Hindus and Muslims derive their inspiration from different sources of history. They have different epics, different heroes and different episodes... to yoke together two such nations under a single state... must lead to growing discontent and final destruction of any fabric that may be so built up for the government of such a state". In the 1945 general election, the Muslim League won 425 of the 496 seats reserved for Muslims (along with 89.2% of the Muslim vote).

Support for the Muslim League in North-West India wasn't entirely unopposed. Whilst there was overwhelming support for the Muslim League in Sindh (which became the first province to join Pakistan on 26 June 1947) and Western Punjab (Eastern Punjab became part of India), this was less the case in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa and Baluchistan. In Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, the majority supported the Indian National Congress and Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan (also known as Bacha Khan/King of Chiefs or Fakhr-e Afghan/Pride of Afghans), who opposed the division of India. When the Congress eventually accepted the partition plan at the request of Lord Mountbatten, Bacha Khan told them "you have thrown us to the wolves". Since the Congress boycotted the referendum in the province, the Muslim League won the majority of the vote and it acceded to Pakistan. In Baluchistan, there was some opposition to Pakistan, which occasionally turned into violent skirmishes. Many Baluch tribesmen opposed the Khan of Kalat's decision to join the new state, but the support for or acceptance of Pakistan by influential Baluch figures such as Jafar Khan Jamali and Akbar Bugti (as well as student support mobilised by Mir Hazar Khoso) led to a vote in favour of joining the state. Communal violence in regions with significantly-mixed populations led to chaotic population transfers. Many Sikhs and Hindu Punjabis fled the Western half to Eastern Punjab and Delhi. The influx of refugees virtually doubled the size of the Indian capital. Refugees were primarily housed in military locations such as the Purana Qila, the Red Fort and Kingsway Camp. The camp sites were converted into permanent housing through extensive building projects undertaken from 1948 onwards. Similarly, a large number of Muslims fled India for Pakistan. 5.3 million Muslims settled in Western Punjab, 1.2 million in Sindh and 0.7 million (primarily Bihari Muslims) in East Pakistan. Later in the 1950s, the majority of Urdu-speaking refugees were settled in Karachi, which went from a population of 400,000 in 1947 to more than 1.3 million in 1953. The Ahmadi sect, based in Qadian (in Amritsar) also migrated to Pakistan, leaving 313 dervishes behind, tasked with guarding Ahmadi holy sites. They initially settled in Lahore, but purchased a tract of arid land and built the town of Rutbah.

In the east, the future of the key Bengal region was a major political issue. Calcutta had been the scene of mass riots on 16 August 1946, known as 'Direct Action Day' to Pakistanis and the 'Great Calcutta Killings' to Indians. These riots had been in response to Congress' refusal to agree to a partition of India. The Muslim League organised a 'hartal' (general strike). Muslims in Calcutta numbered one-third of the population (Hindus were 64%), and the resulting violence convinced the Congress that it wasn't worth antagonising the Muslim League further. More than 4,000 lost their lives in the riots and 100,000 were left homeless over 72 hours. The idea of a Pakistani state was very popular in East Bengal. Many notable Muslim League activists hailed from East Bengal, including Husyen Suhrawardy, Nazimuddin and Nural Amin. Some activists, including Suhrawardy and Abul Hashim supported the idea of a United Bengal. In hindsight, the plan appears to have been reasonable. Although East Bengal had a larger population, West Bengal contained most important economic assets, including coal mines, all but two of Bengal's jute mills and other industrial plants. Calcutta, the largest port in India, was also situated in West Bengal. Unlike East Bengal, however, West Bengal was primarily Hindu. Overall, Bengal's religious composition was 56% Muslim and 42% Hindu. Activists for a united Bengal experienced significant opposition: Congress wanted a divided Bengal in order to gain the resources of West Bengal, supported by many Hindu Bengalis who saw the idea as a plot by the Muslims to keep control of key resources. The majority of Muslim Bengalis also preferred the idea of a separate East Bengal as part of Pakistan. Congress support was limited to Sarat Chandra Bose (the elder brother of Subhash, who had collaborated with the Nazis and Japanese through his Azad Hind movement) and Kiran Shankar Roy. Aside from Nehru and Patel, the partition was also opposed by the Hindu nationalist party Hindu Mahasabha, which represented the interests of the Brahmins (priestly/merchant caste) and was led by Shyama Prasad Mukherjee. Whilst Jinnah conceded that Suhrawardy's argument for a united Bengal had merit,
the facts on the ground prevented the establishment of an independent Bengal. In the aftermath of Bengal's partition, there was a massive population transfer, although more gradual (and thus less chaotic) than in Punjab. Many Hindu skilled labourers left East Bengal for India. Meanwhile, many lower-caste Hindus remained. Their presence often proved a catalyst for communal violence. These Hindus were share-croppers, who due to a lack of movable property, essentially had no choice but to stay.

On the 14-15 August 1947, both Pakistan and India became independent from Britain but remained Dominions of the Empire. Oddly (though perhaps not so given the circumstances), two states with the same monarch quickly went to war against each other. On 22 October 1947, Waziri lashkars (tribal warriors) augmented with disguised Pakistani soldiers crossed the border from Pakistan into the princely state of Jammu and Kashmir. The lashkars quickly defeated the state forces stationed in the border regions around Muzaffarabad and Domel. The road to the capital, Srinagar, was now open. Rather than seizing the initiative, the tribal forces took their time pillaging the border cities they had seized. In the Poonch Valley, state forces retreated into a number of settlements (Poonch, Kotli, Mirpur and Jhagner).

The Maharaja of Jammu and Kashmir, Hari Singh, panicked by his forces' defeat on the battlefield, hastily signed an instrument of accession to India. Indian troops and military equipment was airlifted to Srinagar to reinforce the Jammu-Kashmir forces. The Indian-Kashmiri defence of Srinagar from the lashkars was successful and included an outflanking maneouvre by Indian armoured cars, rolling up the tribals' flank. The defeated lashkars were pushed back as far as Baramulla and Uri. These towns were recaptured by the Indians. With the Waziris having suffered setbacks, Pakistan deployed the Gilgit Scouts (the state paramilitary) into the conflict, as well as troops from Chitral (whose Mehtar/Chief) had acceded to Pakistan. After the recapture of Uri and Baramula, Indian forces ceased their pursuit and sent a relief column to the besieged Kashmiri forces at Poonch. This force failed to lift the siege. A second relief column reached Kotli, but they were unable to adequately defend the town and retreated with the relieved Kashmiri forces. Mirpur fell to the lashkars on 25 November 1947. The lashkars also managed to capture Jhanger. Nevertheless, they began to lose their momentum after a failed attack on Naoshera and a number of unsuccessful assaults on Uri. In the south, a small Indian offensive seized Chamb. From this point, the frontline had started to stabilise.

An Indian counterattack in the south, Operation Vijay, recaptures Jhanger and Rajauri. Tribal forces continued to attack Uri's garrison. In the north, Skardu was brought under siege by the Gilgit Scouts. Despite a number of attacks on Jhanger, increasingly supported by regular Pakistani forces, the Indians managed to rebuff the attacks. The Indian forces also mounted an attack in the Kashmir Valley, recapturing Tithwail. The Gilgit Scouts made good progress in the High Himalayas, approaching Leh, capturing Kargil and defeating a relief column bound for Skardu. The Indians considered their attack in the Kashmir Valley sector, driving north to capture Keran and Gurais, as well as repelling a Pakistani counterattack aimed at Tithwal. In Jammu, the forces besieged in Poonch broke out and temporarily linked up with the outside world. Kashmiri forces were able to defend Skardu from the Gilgit Scouts, impeding their advance down the Indus Valley towards Leh. In August, the Chitral forces under Mata-ul-Mulk besieged Skardu and with the help of artillery were able to take Skardu, freeing the Scouts to push further into Ladakh.

In November 1948, the Indians launched Operation Bison, a surprise attack which seized the Zoji La pass. The Indian 77 Parachute Brigade were supported by tanks, which had never before fought at such an altitude. Pakistani forces were pushed back to Matayan, then to Dras. On the 24th,
the brigade linked up at Kargil with other Indian troops arriving from Leh. Poonch was subsequently relieved, having endured a year-long siege. The Gilgit Scouts were finally decisively defeated by the Indian forces. The Indians halted their pursuit at Kargil due to supply issues. The war was finally ended by a ceasefire adopted by the UN on January 5th 1949. According to the UN plan, Pakistan should withdraw its forces from Kashmir, with a token Indian force remaining to ensure law and order. A plebiscite would then be held to determine the future of the province. Pakistan refused to remove its troops, claiming that the presence of Indian troops would constitute a credible threat of voter coercion. Concerned by the Muslim revolts that had assisted the Pakistanis, India increasingly distanced itself from the plebiscite commitments. The UN proposed a number of other possible solutions involving the withdrawal of both Indian and Pakistani forces, which Pakistan accepted but India refused. The Line of Control (the frontline at the time of the ceasefire) solidified as a de facto border.

Kashmir wasn't the only region where accession was controversial. India's first Home Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel saw it as his duty to ensure that as much of the subcontinent was integrated into India as possible. He oversaw Operation Polo, a 'police action' against Hyderabad, whose Nizam had declared independence and persecuted the Hindu majority. Wandering Razakars (Islamic paramilitaries) had virtually free reign to commit rape and murder on Hindus. The Indians easily defeated Hyderabadi forces and annexed Hyderabad into the Indian Union. Rajpramukh Sree Chithira Thirunal of Travanacore, who also wanted his domain to remain an independent country, was coerced into acceding to the Union. Patel was particularly involved in the accession of Junagadh to India. Junagadh was positioned in his home state of Gujarat, and had a number of important Hindu religious sites. The Nawab of Junagadh was a Muslim, and tried to accede to Pakistan. When Mountbatten suggested it was improper to do so due to a lack of a contiguous border with Pakistan, Nawab Mohammed Mahabat Khanji III stated that it was easy to travel from Pakistan to Junagadh by sea. This move was not well-received by his subjects, however, 96% of whom were Hindus. Two vassal states of Junagadh, Mangrol and Babariawad, reacted by acceding to India. In response, the Nawab occupied the two states, leading to a standoff with the militaries of neighbouring Indian states. Following clashes with Indian forces, the Nawab and his family fled to Pakistan. The Junagadh courts then invited India to establish an administration in Junagadh, which was integrated into the Union of India. Patel also introduced a plan to reconstruct Somnath Temple on the Gujarat coast.

On January 30, 1948, Mahatma Gandhi was assassinated by Nathuram Godse, a Chitpavan Brahmin who was closely associated with a number of far-right Hindu Nationalist groups. Godse had been a member of the Rashtriya Swayamserak Sangh (National Patriotic Organisation, RSS), the paramilitary wing of the Bharatiya Jana Singh party. As a result of the killing, the RSS was temporarily banned, although this ban was overturned when an Indian court found that there was no conclusive evidence to suggest that Godse wasn't acting alone. Godse was hanged for his crime. In 1950, India declared itself a republic, abolishing the monarchy.

Throughout the 1940s and 1950s, India was led by Jawarharlal Nehru. Nehru introduced a number of socialist policies. He increased legal rights for women and legislated against caste discrimination in order to try and redress the severe inequality in Indian society. He also promoted education, attempting to improve India's poor literacy rates. Nehru promoted an economic strategy defined by strong government involvement. He abolished tax for farmers, provided benefits for blue-collar workers, nationalised heavy industries and began to develop India's nuclear energy production capabilities. Diplomatically, he maintained balanced relations with the two superpowers, played a leading role in the Non-Aligned Movement, opposed the partition of Palestine and provided moral support for Nasser during the Suez Crisis.

Pakistan's internal politics was much more unstable. Pakistan's first Prime Minister was Liaquat Ali Khan. Ali Khan faced difficulties maintaining the Muslim League's dominance, with significant opposition from socialists in West Pakistan and Communists in East Pakistan (East Bengal). Alongside these issues, Ali Khan's inability to make good on his promise to visit the Soviet Union was seen as a snub by Stalin. Inadvertently, Pakistan's began to align itself with the interests of the United States. Although he sought an independent economic policy, Pakistan became increasingly dependent on US aid due to the abortion of Ali Khan's central planning initiatives. Ali Khan also introduced a constitutional annex which defined, in law, Pakistan's Islamic character. Annoyed at the United States' unwillingness to completely endorse Pakistan's invasion of Kashmir, Ali Khan began to seek closer ties to the Soviet Union and China, although this came to an end when a Soviet-backed coup attempted the overthrow of Ali Khan's government. The attempted coup, led by Major General Akbar Khan (the Chief-of-Staff of the Pakistani Army) and Marxist poet Faiz Ahmed Faiz. The coup failed, however, as Muhammad Ayub Khan (Commander-in-Chief) and Major General Iskander Mirza (Governor General and Defense Secretary) remained loyal. The army headquarters at Rawalpindi were surrounded by loyalist forces and the conspirators were arrested. After an 18-month secret trial, the conspirators were convicted and sentenced to long prison terms (although Akbar Khan was later released after Ali Khan's death). On an unrelated issue, Ali Khan was assassinated by an Afghan hitman, Saad Akbar Babrak. To this day, his motive is unknown.

Ali Khan was succeeded by Sir Khawaja Nazimuddin. His tenure saw a growing rift in the Muslim League between Punjabis and Bengalis. On 21 February 1952, demonstrations calling for co-official language were fired upon by police. Khawaja stated that Urdu would be the 'one and only' language of Pakistan. In 1953, a religious movement calling for the removal of Ahmadis from positions of power (including the expulsion of Muhammad Zafarullah Khan from the post of Foreign Minister) and their designation as non-Muslims led to riots in Punjab. In 1954, there was an attempt on the life of Mirza Basheer-ud-Din Mahmood Ahmad, the Khalifatul Masih of the Ahmaddiya sect. Khawaja failed to effectively halt the rioting. Governor General Ghulam Muhammad asked Khawaja to step down, but he refused. Khawaja was then forced out, as the Governor General invoked a reserve power to dismiss him.

Khawaja was replaced by a Bengali, Mohammed Ali Bogra, who had been ambassador to the United States when he was appointed Prime Minister. Bogra declared the development of the Constitution as his main priority. He established a number of points, the so-called 'Bogra Formula', which involved a complete overhaul of the parliamentary system and a weakening of the ulama in favour of a Supreme Court. It was an idea favoured by the masses in both East and West Pakistan, but was opposed by Ghulam Muhammad. Bogra was forced to resign in 1955 by the new Governor General, Iskander Mirza. Mirza was himself suceeded by Chandry Muhammad Ali, who pushed through a new constitution and abolished the monarchy, establishing the Islamic Republic. Despite these achievements, he failed to address the issues posed by party politics. The Republican Party had formed to oppose the Muslim League and was becoming an increasingly effective challenge. Ali's Muslim League demanded that he check them, but he refused, stating that his duty as Prime Minister meant that he could not favour the interests of his party. To the surprise of many, he resigned from both the League and the Prime Minister post.

The Awami League (an East Pakistan-based political party) and the Republicans made a coalition government, with Huseyn Shaheed Suhrawardy as Prime Minister. Suhrawardy supported one-unit government, but it was vehemently opposed by many West Pakistanis. East Pakistan was much easier, however, and was turned into a single administrative unit. Suhrawardy took a strong pro-US tilt to Pakistani foreign policy. An American U-2 base was established in Badaber (Peshawar Air Station), 16km from the city of Peshawar. Suhrawardy's attempts at economic centralisation flailed ineffecively due to the opposition of the financial interests based in cities such as Karachi. His military reform attempts were more successful, eased significantly by the involvement of the US Military Assistance Advisory Group (MAAG). Suhrawardy also had the Pakistan Atomic Energy Agency (PAEA) established. PAEC would later by halted under the military regime of Ayub Khan. Under pressure from Pakistan's business community, President Mirza forced Suhrawardy to resign in October 1957. Two interim Prime Ministers, Ismail Ibrahim Chundrigar and Faraz Khan Noon served until Mirza's declaration of martial law in 1958.

President Iskander Mirza began to feel increasingly threatened by the political assertiveness of the Awami League. On October 7, 1958, he issued an executive decree and a state presidential proclamation abrogating the 1956 Constitution. Pakistan's Parliament and provincial assemblies were dissolved. Ayub Khan became the Chief Martial Law Administrator (CMLA) as well as Prime Minister. Mirza became increasingly fearful of Ayub Khan. He stacked the rest of his Cabinet with technocrats, a move not accepted by Ayub Khan. In a last ditch effort, Mirza attempted to draw senior military figures to his side, but they informed Khan. Mirza was exiled to London. Ayub Khan was in full control.
 
Chapter 28: 1957 - The Liberation of Taiwan
The Taiwan Strait Liberation Campaign

The uneasy truce between the People's Republic of China and the Koumintang-run Republic of China (based in Formosa/Taiwan) following the American withdrawal proved untenable. In January 1957, the PLA seized the Yijiangshan Islands, two islets off the coast of Zhejiang held by the National Revolutionary Army (NRA), the armed forces of the Koumintang regime. At 0800hrs on the 20th of January, three groups of PLAAF bombers and two groups of Close Air Support (CAS) dive-bombers attacked Yijiangshan to soften up the NRA defences. A fourth group of bombers and some of the CAS assets from the second group attacked Dachen (where the administration of the offshore islands was centred). The bombing of Dachen was nothing more than a diversionary attack and caused very little damage. At 0900hrs, 50 PLA long-range artillery pieces began to bombard Northern and Southern Yijang. Three hours later, more than 70 naval vessels carried the 5,000-man strong landing force from Gaodao, Queerao and Toumenshan Island in two waves, escorted by 40 vessels which screened their approach. At 1400, 10 specially-converted naval vessels equipped with rocket launchers bombarded Yijiangshan. The PLA troops landed on 20 separate landing spots. They were opposed by 1,000 NRA defenders, the first line of which immediately opened fire in order to disrupt the PLA forces' formations. Nevertheless, the PLA troops, supported by CAS, artillery and utilising firethrowers, quickly overpowered the first line of defence. The majority of PLA casualties (200 dead and 400 wounded) resulted from attempts to overpower two machine gun nests, which were themselves eventually knocked-out by artillery and airstrikes. The PLA switched to small-unit tactics to assault the tunnel network established by the NRA on the island. Utilising flamethrowers to grim effect, the PLA had seized virtually the whole of the islands by 1730hrs. According to PLA sources, 567 NRA were killed and 519 captured. Koumintang sources claim that 721 soldiers were killed and 12 nurses. NRA commander Wang Shen-Ming committed suicide with a hand grenade to avoid capture as the Communists approached. The Communists took up defensive positions immediately, in preparation of a counterattack that never materialised. 18,000 refugees from the islands were resettled in Taiwan. Additionally, the Nationalist forces lost the destroyer Taiping, which was destroyed by Chinese artillery and CAS before it could disrupt the PLA landings.[99]

The next target for the Communists was the Dachen Islands, sandwiched between Zhoushan to the North and the Southern Deer Mountain Archipelago (Nanjishan Liedao) to the South. The Dachen Islands consist of 29 islets, islands and rocks, together totalling a mere 14.6 sq km. Again, the PLA attack was preceded by bombing raids on the area. Due to the ineffectual nature of the diversionary bombings during the capture of Yijiangshan, the NRA anti-air assets weren't prepared for effective raids. Piloted by experienced aircrews, the bombing raids of February 1st severely damaged the communications infrastructure on the islands. Unable to utilise this infrastructure, NRA troops were forced to communicate using unencrypted radios of American origin, which the PLA listened in on with the same radios, which had been captured from American soldiers. The second bombing mission had an even more severe impact. Whilst NRA anti-air (AA) assets had deployed to protect conventional military targets, they were not in place to defend Dachen's reservoir, which was completely destroyed. With their fresh water supply sharply reduced, the NRA soldiers would not be able to maintain a long-term defence of the area. Nevertheless, despite the poor military situation, the NRA leadership (including Chiang Kai-Shek himself) determined that the NRA troops would hold the islands at all costs. On the 10th, following a morning of shelling with rockets and heavy artillery, the People's Liberation Army landed on Dachenzhen, the main island in the chain, as well as at Nankeng to the north. The fighting here was significantly harder than at Yijiangshan. 10,000 NRA servicemen, along with 4,000 guerrillas, were defending the island. Opposing them were 18,000 PLA troops, some of whom had fought at Yijiangshan. Despite less of a numerical advantage, the PLA nevertheless advanced steadily, primarily due to Dachen's relatively benign terrain. The advance was particularly quick on the northern major island, where two perfect landing beaches were located on the Western side of the island, at Xiangtou'aocun and Zhongjucun. The only real resistance in the north was at Guandi Temple, located on a tombolo connected to the southern part of the island. Unfortunately, the temple was lost when the PLA, after failing to capture the tombolo twice, leveled the area with artillery. On Dachenzhen, the PLA had to perform a frontal assault on the town in the north of the island. It was a tough slog against determined, if starving, NRA resistance. The Nationalists gradually lost ground, however, and after three days, the island was taken. 6,500 servicemen were killed in action, with approximately 3,500 captured. Most were sent to labour camps on the mainland. There were also significant civilian casualties in the battle, although the vast number of conflicting records makes it impossible to find a certain figure. Remaining NRA troops at Nanjishan Liedao withdrew to the Pescadores. Those islands were bloodlessly seized immediately after the cessation of hostilities on Dachenzhen.[100]

April-June 1957 saw the loss of Quemoy and the Matsu Islands to the Red Chinese forces. On the morning of April 6th, PLA heavy artillery located near Xiamen, Fujian Province, opened fire on the island of Quemoy/Kinmen. This shelling continued for three days, until PLA forces landed on the island on the 9th, approaching simultaneously from both Xiamen to the northwest and from the Weitou bay to the northeast. The extensive shelling and flat terrain of the island made its capture a walk-over for PLA forces. The island's defenders lost 1,800 men of an original garrison of 3,000. On June 3rd, PLA forces attacked the Matsu Islands (consisting of Ma-tsu Tao, Tung-ch'uan Tao, Pai-kan-t'ang Tao and Tung-yin Tao). The small but heavily-forested islands were more difficult to take than Quemoy. Due to a greater distance from the mainland, the attackers were forced to utilise rocket artillery to soften up defenses, with limited success. Despite these obstacles, they were taken very quickly, due to a very small garrison. The only action of note was inconclusive air clashes in the air over the islands. The Republic of China Air Force (ROCAF) deployed a number of American-made F-86 Sabres in order to defend the airspace. The PLAAF Shenjang J-5s (Mig-17 Frescos), used to outclassing the Sabres, complacently attempted to utilise their higher altitude ceiling to negate the Sabres' .50 cal machine gun armaments. Unbeknownst to the Communist Shenjangs, the Sabres had been equipped with new American guided air-to-air missiles, the AIM-9 Sidewinder. Whilst the large number of Chinese jets prevented the ROCAF from establishing air superiority, the kill ratio was significantly in favour of the Sabres. Unfortunately for the Americans and Chinese Nationalists, one Sidewinder lodged in a Shenjang and failed to detonate. The missile was later removed and sent to the Soviet Union, where it was reverse-engineered. The Soviet copy was known as the 'K-13', with the NATO operating name of the AA-2A 'Atoll'.[101]

With its uniform success in the capture of the offshore islands, Mao and the PLA leadership became increasingly brazen in their campaign against the Nationalists in the Taiwan Strait. In October, PLA mounted a large-scale offensive against the Pescadores Islands (Penghu) off the west coast of Taiwan. The PLA took some losses whilst landing troops on the island, as ROCAF warplanes strafed and dive-bombed the assault boats. Low-flying ROCAF dive bombers took significant damage from escort ships specially-outfitted with anti-aircraft batteries, however. The tide turned decisively to the Communists, however, after they managed to secure a beachhead on the western part of the main island. The Communists brought ashore a number of HQ-1 surface-to-air missiles ('Hong Qian'/Red Leader-1, Chinese-produced S-75 Dvina). The HQ-1 batteries entered into deployment mode and in combination with air support from fighters based on the mainland, prevented ROCAF air superiority. It is believed that the HQ-1s were instrumental in the outcome of the Battle for the Pescadores, given that the closer proximity of the islands to Taiwan than the Chinese mainland ensured that the PLAAF pilots could not expend as much fuel as their ROCAF opponents.

Over the next few months, the Communists increasingly fortified their position on the Pescadores, as well as developing military infrastructure on the island, including a large military port and an airfield capable of accommodating bombers as well as fighters. More HQ-1s were brought in and arranged in a hexagonal 'hedgehog' fashion in order to ensure maximum coverage. In the United States, there was significant debate about what action, if any, America should take. President Eisenhower had his own doubts about whether or not it would be worth it to become militarily involved against the PRC once again, after the debacle on the mainland. As it was, the CIA had ensured that ample supply was given to the Muslim insurgency in China. Chiang's Muslim lackeys had managed to bleed the Communists to an extent, but nothing was really being gained. Many of them had degenerated to nothing more than drug smugglers in inhospitable North Burma. Arch-conservatives in Congress demanded that the United States intervene with the Seventh Fleet in order to cut the Chinese off from the Pescadores and confine them to the mainland. They argued something should've been done earlier. A significant faction within Congress argued instead that Taiwan should be thrown to the wolves. Kefauver (TEN-D) argued that the United States had already done more than enough to help Chiang. His incompetence is what had lost China, not US inaction. He also argued that even with Taiwan lost, the Philippines and Japan still composed an effective means to contain the Red Chinese. There was no point using the Seventh Fleet except in the case of war. The Chinese would probably base offensively-poised forces in Taiwan, which could then be cut off from the mainland and destroyed. Kefauver counter-intuitively argued that the loss of Taiwan would improve the security of American interests in the Far East. In the end, this view won out. The United States gave what assistance it could in terms of military equipment, but would not commit to protecting Taiwan from PLA attack.

On January 18th, 1958, the attack finally came. The PLA landed a large force of 150,000 troops at four landing spots on the west coast of Taiwan. These were, in order of north-to-south: Zone A (between Tao-yuan and Hsin-chu), Zone B (at Miao-li), Zone C (between Chang-hua and Chi'a) and Zone D (at Tai-nao). These forces were accompanied by armoured cars, light tanks, artillery and SAMs. They were escorted by a large contingent of the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) and the beaches were softened by by raking fire from the ship-mounted rocket batteries. There was heavy fighting on the beaches and in the air, but the Communists slowly began to take ground, despite high casualties. As the NRA line looked like it was ready to break, they retreated into the mountain ranges of the east. Meanwhile, Chiang, his family and his closest officials fled to the United States. In the forested mountains of the east, the PLA found it increasingly difficult to advance. Occasional ambushes by Taiwanese aboriginals and NRA units sapped morale and manpower. Enraged by the guerrilla attacks, the PLA started to practice collective punishment for the attacks. Villages were burned regardless of whether they were Taiwanese aboriginal, Chinese or recent Koumintang arrivals. Concerned by these reports, the Americans decided to send a relief squadron to evacuate VIPs and some civilians from the island. The PLA managed to seize Taipei without too much of a struggle. NRA troops who attempted to cordon off Taipei from the PLA advance north broke when their right flank was bombarded from the sea. The ROCN sortie sent to protect them was woefully outnumbered and without air cover. Three of their warships were sunk, whilst the remainder fled back to port. These ships then defected to the United States. Their crews were resettled in California and the ships were transferred to the Japanese Navy. Kiaohsung, the south's major city, had been captured early on in the invasion, but the Nationalists maintained a major holdout at Hualien on the eastern coast. There were two approaches to Hualien through the mountains: a road to the South and one to the North. The NRA managed to slow the PLA in both sectors, but the appearance of battle-hardened PLA assault groups in the northern approach allowed the PLA to break through. As PLA forces came within view of Hualien, they saw American warships loading VIPs onto their ships. As the ships filled, panicked civilians attempted to rush their way onto the boats. Koumintang security forces opened fire on the crowds, to the visible disgust of the American crewmen. With Hualien taken, Taiwan had been all-but-secured by the PLA. The NRA rearguard in the southern road was surrounded by PLA forces from both directions and surrendered as soon as they realised their predicament. Their commander committed suicide not long after surrendering to the PLA.

[99] Whilst this attack did occur almost exactly the same in OTL, the one major difference is that the attack occurred on the 20th of January 1955, not 1957. ITTL, with a weaker China as the result of the American intervention in the Chinese Civil War, this action takes place two years later than OTL. Also, after this occurred OTL, the US Congress adopted the Formosa Declaration of 1955, where the United States committed to the defense of ROC possessions, particularly Taiwan. It is, in my opinion, unlikely to occur after a failed US intervention on Mainland China. Therefore, ITTL, it does not.

[100] Yay, 100th footnote! IOTL, the US managed to pressure/convince the Nationalist leadership to evacuate the civilian and military populations of Dachen. The Nationalists weren't particularly happy about this (despite fresh water supply being cut off). The historicity of the attack is therefore gone after the raid on the reservoir (which did occur). With an actual battle at Dachen, the Nationalist military position is even weaker then IOTL. Again, the dates were also not historic. OTL, 132 USN boats and 400 aircraft moved 14,500 civilians, 10,000 NRA servicement and 4,000 guerrillas to Taiwan, along with 40,000 tons of military supplies and equipment from the islands.

[101] Although Quemoy and Matsu weren't invaded IOTL, they were bombed by the PRC. The incident with the dud Sidewinder actually did happen, and despite the low probability of it happening in the first place, I decided to leave it in anyway.
 
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Solid updates! Though not really topics I'm much familiar with. What's to become of democracy in France? And the dissident/student movements of the 1960s? And the French New Wave (though I realize this isn't a culture-heavy TL.)

I'm going to speculate on closer ties ITTL between France, Israel, and South Africa, but that's just a thematic notion; seems like they'd work well together.

Post-partition India is definitely not a place I'm familiar with. Would it be too much trouble for you to spell out the consequences for India and Pakistan here?:eek:

China taking Taiwan, now that's obviously more straightforward. That makes me think we'll see the US draw a very tough line-in-the-sand in South Vietnam. Luckily for South Vietnam (and probably the Philippines and any other Southeast Asian countries who are more closely allied to the US ITTL) all of the economic development in South Korea and Taiwan will have to occur elsewhere. This seems like the most likely place for that to happen.
 
Solid updates! Though not really topics I'm much familiar with. What's to become of democracy in France? And the dissident/student movements of the 1960s? And the French New Wave (though I realize this isn't a culture-heavy TL.)

I'm going to speculate on closer ties ITTL between France, Israel, and South Africa, but that's just a thematic notion; seems like they'd work well together.

Post-partition India is definitely not a place I'm familiar with. Would it be too much trouble for you to spell out the consequences for India and Pakistan here?:eek:

China taking Taiwan, now that's obviously more straightforward. That makes me think we'll see the US draw a very tough line-in-the-sand in South Vietnam. Luckily for South Vietnam (and probably the Philippines and any other Southeast Asian countries who are more closely allied to the US ITTL) all of the economic development in South Korea and Taiwan will have to occur elsewhere. This seems like the most likely place for that to happen.

I'm still developing the storyline of what I want to do with France ITTL, but the military junta is definitely going to stifle democratic expression. Probably a pretty good idea of what France would be like is Mussolini's Italy-lite[TM] (i.e. collective rule instead of a cult of personality; focus on masculinity; military dominance absent of paramilitaries). The French New Wave is going to be suppressed in favour of more bombastic and militaristic media (again, kinda like Mussolini's fetishisation of the military). In regards to the culture thing, I'm the first to admit it isn't my area of expertise. Once I eventually finish this TL, I plan to redux it to include more of that fleshing-out. Some of the student movements in Europe are going to be more radical (think Rote Armee Fraktion).

France is going to be significantly-closer to South Africa, which we will see in the Congo (remember, Belgium dissolved, with Wallonia going to France). And it's Canaan, not Israel, remember? ;)

There will be consequences for India and Pakistan in the 1960s, but as of that update, there are no changes to OTL.

I think that may be too enthusiastic a forecast for South Vietnam (it was a rotting framework for a state), but there will be a major beneficiary of investment in Asia. It may come a bit out of left field.

EDIT: Oh, and thanks for the compliments! Much appreciated :D
 
Any chance of an update for this, Hrvatskiwi?

Yeah, I'll try to get an update up for this fairly soon. I've felt bad about neglecting it but I've had a lot of engagements in real life that have prevented me from updating it as much as I would have liked. Also, I've plainly been lacking some inspiration lately. Nevertheless, it's a hump I'll try to overcome. I've got some stuff planned for the 1960s, which is fine, but I think that the final specific 1950s post will be my next one, covering the space race pre-1960. I'm mainly basing what information I've got on Matthew Brzezinski's Red Moon Rising. Whilst I've read all the relevant material, I wanted to write some notes on it so that I can make sure that I don't make any mistakes. Part of the reason that I haven't been so inspired in this is that even though I love Cold War history, the Space Race isn't of immense interest to me, and I'm very conscious of my lack of expertise about technical aspects of it.
 
Chapter 29: The Space Race (1950s)
The First Phase: The Space Race (1960 and prior)

Compared to the battlefields of the Third World, the competition for primacy in the exploration of space was more abstract, although just as significant.

During this period, the Soviet Union consistently led the United States in the development of space technology. This lead was spurred by an increased prioritisation of missile technology by the Soviet military and political leadership. Despite American fears to the contrary (a result of a Soviet misinformation campaign that utilised non-consecutive serial numbers to give the impression that the USSR had a larger bomber fleet than they had), the United States had an enormous advantage in air power. Aware of this imbalance of power, Khrushchev pushed the development of missiles as a cost-effective alternative to a nuclear bomber deterrent. The Soviets had already developed copies of the German WWII-era V-2 rocket in 1949, assisted by the discovery of various parts and intelligence at the Mittelwerk factory and it's attendant concentration camp, Dora, in Thuringia during the sack of Germany [102]. By 1956, the Soviets had developed their own long-range missile, independent of German researchers and techniques, the R-5 Pobeda. On 6 September 1957, as part of the International Geophysical Year, the Soviets launched into orbit Sputnik-1, a small artificial satellite, on an R-7 Semyorka, the world's first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM).

The launch of Sputnik into space had an enormous cultural impact, particularly on the United States. The efforts of Walt Disney and the host of his Tomorrowland program, Wernher Von Braun, had planted space exploration firmly in the imaginations of Americans, yet the supposedly backward Russians had sent a satellite into space before them. The political fallout led President Eisenhower to accelerate Project Vanguard, the US Navy project to send a comparable satellite into orbit. It failed spectacularly when the rocket failed to launch properly and exploded. Dubbed 'kaputnik' by the press, it humiliated the Americans. Although the next attempt at launching the satellite succeeded, it's initial failure demonstrated the United States' position as the #2 power in the development of modern rocketry. Not until 1959 did the United States develop a functioning ICBM, the SM-65 Atlas, under the aegis of the Air Force. As it was, the development of missile technology (with the exception of the shorter-range SRBMs) was kept entirely to the USN and USAF, whilst the Army, which retained significant intellectual resources in a number of captured Nazi scientists, was excluded from the race. Politically, giving support to the Army Ballistic Missile Agency (ABMA) was untenable: ABMA was headed by the impetuous and arrogant, if roguish, General Medaris, who had a habit of irritating bureacrats, whilst many distinguished scientists and politicians questioned the suitability of providing captured German scientists with citizenship, let alone employing them in projects of vital national interest. [103]

In response to Sputnik, Eisenhower established the Advanced Research Projects Agency (ARPA) in 1958, tasked with developing technologies regarding space to close the gap between the USA and USSR. In 1959, he transferred ABMA's mandate and resources to ARPA, which put a halt to the Jupiter missile program [104]. In hindsight, the Army's attempts at rocket development had been a waste of resources in a time of international tension.

[102] IOTL, Mittelwerk was discovered by the Americans (despite being in the Soviet zone of occupation) due to the curiousity of John M. Galione, who wanted to find out what was causing a foul smell he whiffed. This is butterflied ITTL.

[103] Whilst historically the USAF was more adept at playing politics than ABMA, ITTL the Army is completely shafted in the missile race.

[104] NASA was established after ARPA in order to focus on civilian projects. ITTL, this does not occur, with space technology remaining monopolised by the DoD.
 
Seems reasonable to me! While I *am* interested in the Space Race, I'm not very well-versed in the tech. But any fumbling that can be put down to bureaucratic turf wars seems completely believable.:p

Still, the US should be able to prove itself more adaptable than the Soviets before too many years pass. This should go a long way to catch them up. Then again, you won't have the hard-stop "end of the decade" necessity of a moon landing without the Kennedy assassination.

But all-in-all, I think there's very little that could stop the US from achieving at least spaceflight parity with the Soviets by the end of the 1960s. That is, as long as OTL Soviet command and control systems are left in place. Could those be revamped?
 
Beautiful timeline, loving every update.

Thank you! Given that this timeline has been going on for more than a year, it's been a real labour of love. Haven't been able to give it as much time as I would like, and there have been times where I've lacked inspiration. But it is such a huge endeavour that it should come as no real surprise. Definitely looking forward to finally being able to get into the 1960s soon, where things really get interesting!
 
Thank you! Given that this timeline has been going on for more than a year, it's been a real labour of love. Haven't been able to give it as much time as I would like, and there have been times where I've lacked inspiration. But it is such a huge endeavour that it should come as no real surprise. Definitely looking forward to finally being able to get into the 1960s soon, where things really get interesting!

Looking forward to it! One question, I must have missed it, but what happened to Italy in the 1940's? Did the Christian Democrats still win?
 
Looking forward to it! One question, I must have missed it, but what happened to Italy in the 1940's? Did the Christian Democrats still win?

Yes they did. Although the Italian Communist Party is still the strongest in the West, the Trieste Affair somewhat diminishes their support. With the OTL intrigues from the Americans in Italy as well, the Christian Democrats still win in the election.
 
Just skimmed the TL; is this a commu-wank, in part, in full, or not at all?

No, it's actually not. Obviously the beginning of it can come across somewhat like that, but that's because I wanted to create a more-even Cold War, as opposed to one that was a wank for either side.

I guess you could say it's a wank in part, because a lot goes wrong for the Americans in the onset. But that's simply because the Americans had such an advantage at the onset of the Cold War in OTL.

As it moves into the sixties, it will become much clearer that it's not a commu-wank at all. Communists are going to do better in some places than OTL, but anti-Communists of varying shades are going to do better in certain other places too.
 

ThePest179

Banned
No, it's actually not. Obviously the beginning of it can come across somewhat like that, but that's because I wanted to create a more-even Cold War, as opposed to one that was a wank for either side.

I guess you could say it's a wank in part, because a lot goes wrong for the Americans in the onset. But that's simply because the Americans had such an advantage at the onset of the Cold War in OTL.

As it moves into the sixties, it will become much clearer that it's not a commu-wank at all. Communists are going to do better in some places than OTL, but anti-Communists of varying shades are going to do better in certain other places too.

All right, understood.
 
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