Stars and Sickles - An Alternative Cold War

[Hrvatskiwi]

Das Bump.

By the way I won't be able to update the TL for a little while, my finals are next week and I've neglected my study (despite competitive entry into the law school that I'm gunning for). I'll still be around the board, so feel free to ask me questions or give suggestions either on here or PM form and I will respond.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

A New World (1950s): La Otra América (Part 1)

In Latin America, the 1950s proved significant as a period of consolidation of various nations into camps, whether with the United States or as part of a greater Latin American camp promoting non-alignment. Although these camps wouldn't be formalised during the 1950s, there was a clear move away from the OAS as a vehicle for cooperation in the Western Hemisphere, largely due to suspicion surrounding American involvement and motives in Latin America.

Argentina, one of the most developed nations in Latin America at the time, found mixed success under the leadership of Juan Domingo Perón. Perón's isolationist foreign policy and economic practices had encouraged ruinous inflation, which reached levels of 50% by 1951. Argentina's economic situation was also negatively affected by British unwillingness to repay their large wartime debt to Argentina in Pounds Sterling, making it more difficult to acquire hard currency with which to buy American capital goods. Instead, Perón accepted the transferral of British-owned assets to the Argentine government, including the national railways. To further combat an increasingly negative trade balance with Washington, the port of Buenos Aires was nationalised, as was the merchant marine, which saw a major program of expansion. The Perónist regime put significant investment into infrastructural developments, including gas pipelines, which gave Argentina self-sufficiency in their critical energy staple. Despite mixed successes in economic governance, Juan Perón and his wife Eva were extremely popular with the Argentines. Eva, known affectionately by the Argentines as "Evita" ("little Eva"), was seen virtually as a saint by working-class Argentines, due to highly publicised stunts such as kissing lepers and establishing charities for the very poor. They also promoted sports as a method of exciting the Argentine populace. In 1950, Argentina hosted the World Basketball Championship and in 1951 the first Pan-American Games were hosted in Buenos Aires. In 1956, an extremely close selection process chose Buenos Aires over Melbourne, Australia, to host the 1956 Summer Olympic Games. It was the first Olympics to be hosted in the Southern Hemisphere. The Australian equine quarantine is seen as the decisive factor in Buenos Aires' selection victory.[73] Argentina's selection as the host of the 1956 Olympic Games created an upsurge of popularity for the Peróns amongst the common people, a sentiment that was not shared by many in the military, who noted its immense cost.

Perón promoted scientific development during his rule of Argentina. He modernised the military, sourcing scientists previously associated with Germany's Nazi regime. Foremost amongst them was Kurt Tank (former technical director of Focke-Wulf Flugzeugbau AG), who led the design team on the FMA IAe 33 Pulqui II, based on the Focke-Wulf Ta 183 "Huckebein", one of the earliest swept-wing jet designs. The Pulqui series was introduced to replace the ageing Gloster Meteors fielded by the Argentine Air Force. The Pulqui I proved to have unacceptably-low performance, and only one prototype was ever made. The Argentines focused on development of the Pulqui II, at the expense of the DINFIA IA 35, a twin-engine, turbine-driven general purpose aircraft. In 1955, Kurt Tank's contract was renewed until 1960, a compromise between Tank and the Argentine government, who wanted the issues surrounding Pulqui II ironed out before giving Tank the exorbitant payrise he desired.[74] These issues were ironed out by mid-1957, and development of the Pulqui II, a solid, but not exemplary fighter was finally finished. The Argentine Air Force was the main buyer, but the United Arab Republic and Indonesia also bought some, although the UAR would later replace the Pulquis with more advanced Soviet MiG fighters. A less successful scientific initiative of the Perónist regime was the Huemul Project, established by German scientist Rudolf Richter, on the recommendation of tank. The Project, Richter claimed, would allow Argentina to become the first nation on Earth to successfully develop nuclear fusion, a far more efficient means of acquiring energy than nuclear fission. In 1951, Richter falsely claimed he had achieved nuclear fusion "on a technical scale". An independent investigation ordered by Perón found that the temperatures achieved were far too low to have possibly achieved nuclear fusion. In late 1952, the project was shut down, having had an immense cost. Richter had essentially defrauded Perón.

Controversy surrounded Perón's granting of asylum to a number of former war criminals from Nazi Germany (such as Josef Mengele) and associated regimes such as the Croatian Ustashe (including former 'Poglavnik' Ante Pavelić). Many of the so-called "ratlines" by which these war criminals escaped were established by Catholic clergy, who had a strong presence in Argentina. The clergy, along with the military, increasingly turned against Perón (in the Church's case, due to increased secularisation of the education system). Clerical denouncements of Perón's regime provoked the vandalisation of churches by hard-line Perónistas, leading indirectly to the overthrow of Perón in Argentina. In June 1957, a coup overthrew the Perónist regime in the so-called "Revolución Libertadora", orchestrated by the military and supported by the clergy and a diverse range of civilian conservative and labour-oriented groups. Perón was replaced by Pedro Eugenio Aramburu Silveti, a General in the Argentine Army. A short-lived attempt at counter-revolution by Juan José Valle, a Perónist army officer, was suppressed through the execution of Valle. Perón escaped to Spain, where the Franco regime hosted him. Aramburu suppressed Perónismo, banning the mention Eva or Juan Perón and inched closer to the United States. Admiral Isaac Rojas became Vice-President, demonstrating the power-sharing arrangement between the branches of the Argentine military in the anti-Perónist junta. Aramburu would give up power to a civilian administration in 1960.[75]

In Chile, the previous dominance of the Radical Party came to an end with the election of General Carlos Ibáñez del Campo, who had ruled the country during parts of the 1920s. Due to his age, Ibáñez was a hands-off President, with the government withdrawing from significant involvement with the national economy. Inflation skyrocketed during the Ibáñez period, to over 80% in 1955. By 1958, concerted efforts to reverse runaway inflation had reduced inflation to just over 30%. Nevertheless, public transport costs increased and the economy slowed to a growth rate of 2.5% p.a. Ibáñez was succeeded in 1958 by Jorge Alessandri, who focused on reducing inflation and balancing Chile's budget, whilst liberalising the tariff regime to encourage free trade. [76]

Throughout the 1950s, Uruguay was dominated by the Partido Colorado, as it had been since 1865. Raúl Sendic, future leader of the Tupamaros rebel group, completed his law degree in the early 1950s and began intensifying his social work. Sendic joined the youth wing of the Socialist Party of Uruguay and in the late 1950s, began a campaign of social awareness amongst sugar cane workers. Sendic founded unions for agricultural workers, namely UTAA (the union for sugar cane workers), SUDA (a union for sugar beet workers) and SUDOR, an all-inclusive organisation for agricultural workers. In 1959, 400 workers march to Montevideo, chanting "por la tierra y con Sendic" ("for the land and with Sendic"). They were repressed by Uruguayan authorities. The dispersal of the march convinced Sendic that armed struggle was necessary to promote the interests of the unrepresented poor.

The local Colorado Party also dominated Paraguay as the 1940s turned into the 1950s. In 1951, an opposition party, the Partido Revolucionario Febrerista (PRF) was established in Buenos Aires. It would oppose both the Colorado Party and the subsequent Stroessner regime. Dr. Federico Chaves Careaga had become President in 1949 and was elected for a three-year term in 1950. In 1953 he was re-elected, however in 1954 he attempted to arm the national police in order to strengthen his regime and protect against a possible military overthrow. Ironically, this plan provoked a military coup, placing Tomas Romero Pereira, another Colorado Party member, in power for a few months before an election, where Alfredo Stroessner was the only name on the ballot. Stroessner, the son of Bavarian immigrant Hugo Strößner and a wealthy Paraguayan criollo mother, had made his name as an artillery officer in the Chaco War with Bolivia, having played a decisive role in the Battle of Boquerón and an event more decisive role in the Paraguayan Civil War of 1947, ensuring the victory of President Higinio Moríñigo. Despite allowing (heavily fraudulent) elections, Stroessner was a classic right-wing military dictator. Stroessner ruled under de-facto martial law, established himself as leader of the Colorado Party and pursued close ties with the United States. Although Stroessner pursued a number of major projects with economic benefit in the 1960s, his long tenure was notable primarily for its complete disregard of basic human rights and unwavering anti-Communism.

In Bolivia, the Revolutionary Nationalist Movement (MNR) emerged as a broad-based party. Denied it's electoral victory in 1951 by the conservative dictator of Bolivia, Hugo Ballivián Rojas, the MNR mounted a successful revolution in 1952, putting Hernán Siles Zuazo into power. Siles ceded the presidency to Ángel Víctor Paz Estenssoro, the leader of the MNR who had been in exile. Under President Paz Estenssoro, Bolivia introduced universal suffrage and carried out a sweeping land reform programme. He also promoted rural education and nationalised the largest tin and silver mines in the country. Increased oil exploration by the Bolivian state petroleum company also left Bolivia with some promise for the future, finding significant reserves (although still only about a sixth the size of Venezuelan reserves).

[73] IOTL, the equine quarantine wasn't instituted until closer to the Games. Stockholm instead hosted the equestrian events. ITTL, the quarantine is instituted earlier, leading to Buenos Aires' selection.

[74] IOTL, Tank's demands for an exorbitant payrise caused his dismissal

[75] IOTL, the coup was in September 1955, but ITTL, it has been postponed due to the Olympics. IOTL, Aramburu relinquished power in 1958.

[76] ITTL, Alessandri doesn't dock public sector pay, which provoked industrial unrest and increased support for Allende amongst the electorate.

 

[xt828]

Nice update. Couple of issues for clarification: the Pulqui I was designed by Émile Dewoitine in 1946-7, and was entirely unrelated - Tank didn't emigrate until after the Pulqui I's first flight. Also, the Pulqui II was never given especially high priority - the Huanquero was higher priority, and much of the capabilities of FMA were directed towards automotive output. If the regime had prioritised the Pulqui II more - perhaps for both prestige and export reasons, as OTL Argentina was the 4th jet power, and both the Dutch and Egyptians were interested - then it could perhaps have been developed into a service-ready condition before Tank's contract expired in January 1955.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Nice update. Couple of issues for clarification: the Pulqui I was designed by Émile Dewoitine in 1946-7, and was entirely unrelated - Tank didn't emigrate until after the Pulqui I's first flight. Also, the Pulqui II was never given especially high priority - the Huanquero was higher priority, and much of the capabilities of FMA were directed towards automotive output. If the regime had prioritised the Pulqui II more - perhaps for both prestige and export reasons, as OTL Argentina was the 4th jet power, and both the Dutch and Egyptians were interested - then it could perhaps have been developed into a service-ready condition before Tank's contract expired in January 1955.

Cool, thanks for that xt828 That was an easy fix.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

A New World (1950s): La Otra América (Part 2)

Ecuador experienced a period of relative prosperity in the 1950s, driven by economic growth and a stabilising populist political environment. The spread of disease amongst Centro-American banana plantations drove up the price of healthy bananas, providing Ecuador with a "banana boom" which stimulated economic growth. National revitalisation was represented by the modernist reconstruction of the cathedral at Ambato (which had been destroyed in an earthquake in 1949). Galo Plaza led the country from the late-1940s until 1952 and focused on technocracy and national development. He managed to improve Ecuador's financial standings, but failed to push through many of his proposed reforms. In 1952, for the third time in his career, José María Velasco Ibarra was elected as President of Ecuador. Velasco promoted an image of himself as "the National Personification", an elder statesmen ever-present to aid Ecuador in its development. Velasco came to power with the assistance of the centre-right 'Concentration of People's Forces' which represented, amongst others, the country's economically influential Lebanese minority. Nevertheless, upon election, Velasco exiled CPF boss Carlos Guevara Moreno. Moreno returned to Ecuador in 1955, after a 3-year exile. Velasco was subsequently supported by the Conservatives, the 'Movimiento Social Cristiano' (Christian Social Movement) and the quasi-Fascist 'Accion Revolucionaria Nacionalista Ecuatoriana' (ARNE). ARNE members acted as shock troops, assaulting and intimidating the press, labour unions and student protestors. In 1955, Velasco provoked the United States in a relatively minor dispute known as the 'Tuna Wars', where Velasco had two US fishing boats seized within Ecuador's 200-mile nautical limit. Relations between Ecuador and the United States were subsequently of a passive-aggressive nature. In 1956, Camilo Ponce Enriquez narrowly won the presidential election, reliant on late support from Velasco. Bizarrely, Velasco became Ponce's most significant opponent. Ponce brought into his cabinet a diverse range of politicians from the Liberals, Conservatives and the MSC. Despite the end of the banana boom, Ponce's tenure was relatively calm, although social malaise and rising unemployment erupted into riots in 1959, which Velasco was poised to exploit on the onset of the 1960s.

In Peru, the 'Ochenio' period of General Odria's rule ended in 1956. The Ochenio was characterised by a crackdown on the APRA (American Popular Revolutionary Alliance) party and rampant corruption. Nevertheless, Odria's leadership did promote economic growth. In 1956, Odria unexpectedly called for national elections. On June 1, Fernando Belaunde Terry's candidacy for the National Front of Democratic Youth was refused by the National Election Board. In response, a massive protest, known as 'El Manguerazo' (The Hosedown) due to the police response, occurred. Belaunde calmed the crowd, carried the Peruvian flag to the police chief and gave an ultimatum that his candidacy be accepted. Despite the government's acceptance of the ultimatum, Belaunde did not win the election. Instead, the Odria dictatorship's favourite, Manuel Prado Ugarteche won. He allowed APRA to once again take part in politics. Belaunde responded to his defeat by claiming electoral irregularities and forms Accion Popular (AP), a Social Democratic party further right on the political spectrum than APRA. In 1959, the Prado government refused to authorise the permits for the AP annual convention, leading to another incident. Belaunde was arrested, but was quickly released due to public pressure (after a failed attempt to swim away from El Fronton prison).

In Brazil, President Getúlio Dornelles Vargas had his primary opponent, Carlos Lacerda, assassinated on the Rua Tonelero in Copacabana on August 5, 1954, cementing his power over Brazil.[77] Vargas' Brazil appeared, on the ground, to be two different countries. Whilst Vargas modernised the South-Eastern coast, the North-East remained semi-feudal to appease the powerful cocoa and sugar plantation owners. Leftist agitation in the North-East led to increased tolerance of oligarch-controlled private militias, who perpetrated many human rights abuses against servile farm-workers. There were also occasional border incidents with Brazil's hispanophone neighbours as Brazilian militia pursued leftist militants or escaped workers. Towards the late 1950s, Vargas began shifting his support increasingly to a young up-and-coming cohort of middle-class technocrats, such as engineers and urban planners. This continued to disgruntle the military.

In Venezuela, a coup against President Rómulo Ángel del Monte Carmelo Gallegos Freire in 1948 failed.[78] President Gallegos promoted human and labour rights in Venezuela, as well as increased regional integration and a more equitable relationship with the United States. Noting the renegotiation of Iranian oil shares, Gallegos reached a deal with the United States in 1953 to nationalise the majority of US oil shares, whilst leaving the Americans with a 25% share and compensating them for the loss of the rest of their assets. Gallegos maintained a positive relationship with Colombia. A novelist, Gallegos ensured that education was heavily prioritised, especially in rural regions. He also cautiously allowed limited unionisation of Venezuelan coffee workers. In 1954, Gallegos decided against running again for President and was succeeded by fellow Acción Democrática member Rómulo Ernesto Betancourt Bello, a staunch democrat and nationalist. Betancourt managed to maintain fiscal solvency despite a global decrease in oil prices, and was instrumental in the establishment of OPEC, joining Venezuela to the predominantly Middle-Eastern organsiation. Under Betancourt's watch, the Corporación Venezolana del Petróleo (Venezuelan Petroleum Corporation - CVP) was also established to oversee the industry. His tenure also saw land reform, where former landowners were compensated generously. This policy partially reversed the decline in agricultural production. Certain leftist elements of AD split off to oppose Betancourt in 1959 and 1960. Nevertheless, Betancourt continued to promote economic and educational reform.

Close to Betancourt's Venezuela was the Colombia of Dr. Jorge Eliécer Gaitán Ayala. After a failed assassination attempt in 1948 [79], Gaitán was successfully elected to the Presidency. In the previous election, Gaitán's Liberal Party had shot itself in the foot by presenting two different presidential candidates, but Gaitán was the sole Liberal Party candidate in the 1950 elections, where he defeated Conservative candidate Laureano Gómez by a landslide. Gaitán was opposed by the United States for his reformist tendencies, instituting land reform, increasing rural education, nationalising United Fruit assets in Colombia and investing in infrastructural projects, especially in the mountainous West. To fend off American pressure, Gaitán increasingly allied himself with the likes of Betancourt in Venezuela and Velasco in Ecuador, forming a de-facto anti-imperialist bloc in South America. The relationship between these nations made it increasingly difficult for the United States to push its interests through the OAS, and the OAS became increasingly less functional, as the more assertive Latin American nations "refused to play ball" with the OAS. Nevertheless, the US attitude to these states were mixed: whilst they disliked the increased assertiveness of Gaitán and Betancourt's governments, they viewed the alternative, particularly in Colombia's case, as radical leftism. In Colombia, Gaitán appeared to be the only alternative to Communist radicalisation of the masses. Nevertheless, Gaitán was increasingly opposed by the orthodox wing of the Liberals, the Conservatives and the Communists. In response, Gaitán formed his own political party, the Partido Popular (PP), which withered the remaining orthodox Liberal Party's support base and siphoned moderate socialists away from the Communist Party. Gaitán styled himself as a saviour of the masses, and it is noted that he on occasion spoke of them in extremely disparaging terms, paternalistically considering themselves incapable of governing themselves, but nevertheless unfairly exploited by oligarchs.

[77] IOTL, the Rua Tonelero incident resulted in the accidental death of a Major Paz, which led to a split between Vargas and the military, resulting in Vargas' suicide. This is averted ITTL.

[78] IOTL, this coup succeeded, and Gallegos was kicked out of power before he could achieve much.

[79] This was also butterflied ITTL.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

A New World (1950s): La Otra América (Part 3)

Central America and the Caribbean were also caught up in the winds of reform.

In Mexico, Miguel Alemán Valdés had been President since 1946. Alemán's focus was on infrastructure and expansion of agriculture, including irrigation projects. In 1951, he also oversaw production of the diversion of the Lerma River, solving Mexico City's problem with reliable water supply. Alemán started the construction of a dam project in Oaxaca state, which would be opened as Miguel Alemán Dam in 1955. Alemán also handled an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, killing thousands of cattle to prevent the spread of the epidemic. Alemán's tenure was also important in the development of Acapulco, subsequently a popular tourist town for 'Norteamericanos'. Despite these achievements, Alemán's presidency was marred by rampant corruption and crony capitalism. In 1952, Adolfo Ruiz Cortines was elected President. He came to power on a platform of rejuvenation and a fresh start from the corruption of the Alemán years. Ruiz Cortines pushed a broad variety of initiatives. He granted women the right to vote in presidential (as opposed to mere municipal) elections. He also implemented the 'March to the Sea', a programme to distribute excess population away from the highlands and towards the coast, to better exploit maritime resources. To do so, Ruiz Cortines had malaria eradicated in the relevant coastal areas. Ruiz Cortines founded the National Housing Institute and provided stimulus for the national economy. He supported polytechnical institutes and practical education. Representative of this interest in the promotion of technical science in Mexico was President Ruiz' establishment of the National Nuclear Energy Commission. He also promoted an immunisation campaign to improve public health and fought against malnutrition. Ruiz' foreign policy promoted close relations with other Latin American countries, with a skeptical view towards the United States. In 1958, Adolfo Lopez Mateos ascended to the presidency as Ruiz' successor, extending social and land reform. Mateos redistributed 16 million hectares of land, on top of clearing and opening new agricultural lands in the far South of Mexico. Public health campaigns eradicated yellow fever, smallpox and typhus. He also introduced systems of food distribution and revived adult education classes to combat widespread illiteracy. Mateos had a carrot-and-stick approach to labour demands. He introduced legislation to assist labourers, but didn't tolerate expressions of unrest such as protests and strikes, which were duly broken up.

In Nicaragua, the state was run by the notorious Somoza family, who brutally repressed the Nicaraguan people and exploited their own nation in the interests of self-aggrandisement and the American United Fruit company. The family patriarch and President Anastasio "Tacho" Somoza García survived an assassination attempt by poet Rigoberto López Pérez. López fired at Somoza but missed.[80] The assassination attempt is believed to have been directly inspired by the constitutional amendment only a few months earlier to allow Somoza another term. After the assassination attempt, Somoza grew more repressive than ever, carrying out state terrorism against suspected opposition, intellectuals and assertive labour figures. He also traced attacks by anti-Somoza rebels on Nicaragua to Costa Rica.

In neighbouring Costa Rica, a stable democracy had existed since the 1948 Costa Rican Civil War. Otilio Ulate Blanco succeeded revolutionary leader Jose Figueres Ferrer as President in 1949. Blanco led the country until 1953, handling the economy competently and encouraging women's suffrage. Figueres returned to the presidency in 1953, having created the popular Partido Liberacion Nacional. He nationalised the banking system and stimulated the industrial sector, energising Costa Rica's emerging middle class. Figueres criticised the United States for supporting dictatorships and endorsed the Caribbean Legion, an informal force that assisted him in gaining power and which supported leftists in the region. Despite this, Figueres still cooperated with the United States in the military sphere. Having disbanded the politically-unreliable army, Figueres had his police forces trained at the US Army School of the Americas in the Panama Canal Zone. In 1955, Nicaraguan forces invaded Costa Rica in revenge for Costa Rican support for anti-Somoza rebels. The Nicaraguan forces were supported diplomatically by the United States, and prevailed easily over Costa Rica's police force. Costa Rica requested a ceasefire be declared by the OAS, but it was unable to come to a conclusion due to American support for Nicaragua and an unwillingness by many states to take a side. Nevertheless, Nicaragua was deplored by many states, including Venezuela and Colombia. Figueres fled to Caracas, and former President Rafael Calderon was placed at the head of a provisional government. The Somozas were in de facto control over two Central American nations.[81]

In Guatemala, Juan José Arévalo, the nation's first democratically-elected president, was nearing the end of his tenure. Having served since 1945, he introduced social reforms, allowed the free establishment of political parties and the restricted establishment of trade unions. Two individuals were poised to succeed Arévalo: Captain Jacobo Árbenz Guzmán and Major Francisco Javier Arana. Prior to the 1950 presidential election, Arana mounted a successful coup against the constitutional government.[82] Arana instituted a right-wing dictatorship. Although Arana didn't desire coming to power through a coup, he did so due to Árbenz' rising popularity and attempted to compensate by promoting labour legislation. Unlike Árbenz, Arana believed that breaking the power of American interests in the country would be disastrous, and that Guatemala needed to develop through collaboration. He has as such been known as the 'Reluctant Caudillo'. Arana promoted infrastructural development, but purged the military of pro-Árbenz elements. Árbenz himself fled to Mexico. Despite efforts at development under Arana, benefits from these initiatives were unevenly distributed, with the Mayan population remaining disadvantaged.

In El Salvador, Oscar Osorio, who had led the Revolutionary Council government since the 1948 coup that overthrew President Salvador Castaneda Castro, constitutionally became President in 1950. Osorio's government presided over a period of calm due to high coffee and cotton prices, having a positive effect on the Salvadoran economy. Osorio adopted social reforms and promoted infrastructural projects. Under Osorio's leadership, however, leftists 'disappeared' and the labour movement was repressed harshly. Lt. Col. José María Lemus succeeded Osorio in 1956, after a manipulated election. The populace was not content with Lemus' rule. Overall it was uneventful, marked only by the introduction of laws pertaining to property rights. He was overthrown in a bloodless coup in 1960.

In Honduras, Juan Manuel Gálvez Durón, the preferred successor of the previous strongman (Tiburcio Carías Andino) demonstrated more independence than expected by observers. Gálvez continued to promote road-building and the development of coffee exports. Continuing the prior administration's fiscal policies, Gálvez reduced the external debt and ultimately paid off the last of the British bonds. Fruit companies continued to receive favourable treatment, including United Fruit, which got a highly-favourable 25-year contract in 1949 (to expire in 1974). Under Gálvez, education received increased attention and a larger share of the national budget. Gálvez passed an income tax law, despite sporadic enforcement. A considerable degree of press freedom was restored, opposition was allowed to organise and labour organisation was permitted to a degree. Basic labour regulations were passed through. Despite these actions, a general strike by agricultural workers in 1954, supported by urban proletarians in San Pedro Sula, overthrew Gálvez' government. A provisional junta was imposed on Honduras. Capital punishment was abolished in 1956. In the 1957 elections, Ramon Villeda Morales was elected as President. Morales introduced welfare benefits, enacted a new labour code and helped the lower class. Whilst he was popular with the masses, these actions angered the wealthy, as well as the military.

Panama throughout the 1950s was consistently dominated by a commercial oligarchy allied with American interests in the Canal Zone. During the 1950s, however, the military started becoming more assertive.

From 1950 to 1956, Paul Eugene Magloire was the military ruler of Haiti, having ousted President Dumarsais Estime, who had tried to extend his term of office. During Magloire's rule, Haiti became a popular tourist spot for American and European tourists. The United States approved of his strong anti-Communist stance and he used profits from coffee sales to fund infrastructure projects. Magloire was initially popular, introducing women's suffrage and becoming well-known for his vivid social life, staging many events, parties and ceremonies. Magloire's popularity decreased dramatically after 1954, when it was found that he had appropriated relief funds intended for victims of Hurricane Hazel. In 1956, he fled the country amid strikes and rioting. Joseph Nemours Pierre-Louis replaced Magloire as provisional President, seizing Magloire's property and releasing political prisoners. Frank Sylvain was appointed by the Haitian Parliament as Pierre-Louis' successor, but only served as President for two months before being deposed by General Leon Cantave. Daniel Fignole emerged as Haiti's next provisional President. Despite being an anti-Communist, Fignole was assertively leftist. With most of Haiti's traditional power brokers (and the US government) against him, he only lasted 3 weeks before being deposed by the Haitian military. In exile in New York, he accused his main rival, François Duvalier, of being the architect of his overthrow. In the next few days, Fignole's supporters in the poor districts of Port-Au-Prince were gunned down by Antonio Kebreau's military regime. Thousands were killed in the violence. Kebreau's short reign of four months was indeed followed by Dr. François "Papa Doc" Duvalier. Duvalier, a proponent of noirisme, a political movement seeking to enfranchise the Afro-Haitian majority, and won a landslide electoral victory against the Mulatto landowner and industrialist from the North, Louis Dejoie. Duvalier's only black proletarian opponent, Fignole, was in exile. In July 1958, a coup led by Alix "Sonson" Paquet, a Mulatto, attempted to overthrow President Duvalier. Hoped-for support failed to materialise and Paquet and his seven accomplices were all killed by loyalist Haitians. Duvalier abolished the military and executed high-ranking generals, replacing them with political lackeys. In 1959, he established in the place of the Army the feared Milice de Volontaires de la Sécurité Nationale (Militia of National Security Volunteers - MVSN), better known as the "Tonton Macoute" - the bogeymen. Many of the Tonton Macoutes were Vodou 'Houngans' (priests/shamans), which added a spiritual dimension to their authority. Duvalier used Vodou to build a cult of personality, claiming he was favoured by the Loa (saint-like spirits).

In British Guiana, Cheddi Jagan established the People's Progressive Party in 1950. In a colonially-administered election, the PPP won and established an administration working with the British towards independence. [83]

In the rest of the British West Indies, the British Caribbean Federation Act of 1956 established the legal framework for the West Indies Federation, which came into being in 1958. Within the Federation, there was significant disagreement over where the capital should be situated. The competition was primarily between Kingston, Bridgetown and Port of Spain. The Federation was organised as a Dominion, with a Governor-General representing the Crown. Two Federation-wide parties, organised by Jamaican politicians, evolved as confederations of local parties: the West Indies Federal Labour Party (WIFLP) of Norman Manley, and the Democratic Labour Party (DLP) of Alexander Bustamante. The WIFLP was urban-based, whilst the DLP was largely agricultural. The WIFLP and the DLP differed in several policy aspects. The WIFLP wanted to encourage the Bahamas, Guiana and British Honduras to join the Federation, whilst the DLP did not. The WIFLP wanted to establish a central bank and advocated a democratic socialist society and full internal self-government for the constituent territories. The DLP attacked such policies as Socialism, wished to avoid high taxation by sourcing capital via loans, emphasising West Indian unity and encouraging trade unionism. The WIFLP won the federal elections of 1958. After some wavering, Norman Manley contested the election and became Prime Minister of the Federation. [84]

The Dominican Republic was dominated throughout the 1950s by strongman Rafael Trujillo. Trujillo maintained tight control over the country as well as a surprisingly active foreign policy. Trujillo was responsible for several assassination attempts on other Caribbean leaders, including Betancourt in Venezuela. He also tampered with Cuban politics, although he stopped short of supporting an attempt to overthrow the Cuban government. He also kept a close eye on Dominican exiles elsewhere, particularly in the United States. On occasion, Trujillo ensured that these exiles were intimidated by American intelligence personnel bribed by Trujillo's regime. Under pressure from the Organisation of American States, Trujillo ceded the Presidency to his brother, Héctor Trujillo, in 1952 but remained the real power in the Republic, to the extent that a public celebration was held in 1955 celebrating 25 years of his rule.

[80] ITTL, the assassination attempt was successful, killing Somoza and propelling his eldest son, Luis, to the presidency.

[81] IOTL, the CIA strafed Costa Rican targets as a favour to the Somozas for allowing them to use Nicaraguan airbases during Operation PBSUCCESS (the intervention in Guatemala against Jacobo Arbenz). Without that, the CIA doesn't intervene. But without the Guatemalan intervention, there is also less pressure by the State Department to preserve the USA's image in Latin America by preserving Costa Rica as a democracy.

[82] IOTL this coup was unsuccessful, resulting in the death of Arana.

[83] ITTL, Jagan is less outspokenly Marxist and therefore the British don't intervene against his election, which also prevents the People's National Congress from splitting off of the People's Progressive Party.

[84] IOTL, Manley didn't contest the election, preferring to keep his local powerbase, which affected the political coherence of the Federation and essentially condemned it.

 

[historybuff]

Very interesting stuff. What about Trujillo?

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Very interesting stuff. What about Trujillo?

I will add on stuff about Trujillo soon (most likely tonight). Instead of a separate post though, I'll just add a paragraph onto the last one.

 

[omnimercurial]

Wowza! Lots of updates! Very impressed! Interesting developments too.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Wowza! Lots of updates! Very impressed! Interesting developments too.

Glad you enjoyed it they won't all be at this pace, of course, I just had spent a LOT of time doing a LOT of research and kinda just wanted to get it done, so I powered through them Just out of curiosity, what were your favourite developments (this question extends to other readers too)?

 

[Expat]

Just caught up, really impressive work! It must be very difficult to try to something of this scope. I admire the attempt, and must say it's very successful so far!

Do you have a larger goal/framework you're working towards, or is it mostly just write-as-you-go changes that make sense given the butterflies you've got?

Since you often ask for comments and are tragically under-served, the rest of this post is just going to be a dumping ground of all my thoughts reading this over the last few days.

I'm most curious to see where you're taking the Eastern Bloc. Right now the relative reform of institutions is encouraging. Will we see a greater commitment to human rights in the Warsaw Pact, or is this just a temporary phase?

Meanwhile the West (especially the US) seem to be scrambling. US politics have been kept somewhat in the background, but it's clear that a general backlash against Wallace's blundering is in effect throughout the 1950s. I know much of the Americas updates are OTL, but is it just me or does the US attitude towards Latin America seem even more harsh and brutal ITTL?

Also concerning the US, what were the casualties like in China? I'm guessing far greater than Korea? I realize we're due for an Asia update (or ten) and I'm curious to see how the loss of Korea will affect US policy towards Japan, as well as Japanese politics.

You also mentioned an independent Sikkim, and I'm not going to let you forget it! (So easy to forget.)

Canaan sounds fascinating. Would be interested to hear how many Arabs embrace the ideology, and also how the state handles the Hasidim. Linked to this, the possibilities for a different Soviet reaction to this state are tantalizing. Obviously as a more out-and-out fascist state, they're going to have a negative opinion of Canaan. But even if this moderates, their non-Jewish identity is likely going to have effects on whether the Soviets allow their Jewish population to migrate, and if the (largely Hasidic) Russian Jewish community even wants to migrate.

Another aspect of this reformed ideology is Nazi-hunting. I imagine it's less of a priority ITTL? Is it even being attempted at all?

One thought about domestic US politics: you've got Dewey as president. The odds of earlier action on Civil Rights just went way up, with all the discord that entails.

You also mentioned Eisenhower as president, as a Republican, and I'm pretty sure you've hinted that he's elected in 1952. That's such a significant thing (a party not going with a sitting president as its candidate) that I'm guessing you probably have an idea in mind already. But if not, here's an idea: I can imagine that Dewey pushing through Civil Rights legislation a decade early (and the resulting fallout) is enough to cause a revolt from the right, probably in the form of a successful challenge from Taft. This could cause Eisenhower to step in in an effort to head off the disaster of Taft's isolationism (basically as per OTL.)

Of course Ike coming into power after Civil Rights is already out of the bag means a very different domestic agenda for his presidency. He's lost a huge carrot with which to appease conservatives. How does he govern? And what happens to the Democrats?

The implications for US politics are staggering.

Edit: If you by any chance were looking for some ideas about US politics/domestic policy, I'd be happy to PM. But of course it's your show and I'm more than happy just to read and enjoy!

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Just caught up, really impressive work! It must be very difficult to try to something of this scope. I admire the attempt, and must say it's very successful so far!

Thank you so much, I really appreciate it. Oh, it's definitely difficult. I mean, I'm probably going to be moving at a faster pace than the past, but this TL is already over a year old. The amount of research I've had to do, combined with workloads from university (sure, it's only my first year, but I'm trying to get into a competitive-entry course) has made it slow going in parts where I don't have a lot of prior knowledge, such as Latin America and India (which I have yet to update. But I will. Eventually. But it'll be a good one when it comes!).

Do you have a larger goal/framework you're working towards, or is it mostly just write-as-you-go changes that make sense given the butterflies you've got?

There isn't really a simple answer to this. I do have a larger rough goal that I'm working towards, but at the same time I am developing a lot of changes as write-as-you-go. My general MO is having an outcome I want and doing a lot of research to find what would be the best way of doing so. But only in a very broad sense. As you have probably noticed, there have been a variety of PODs in the timeline so far, few of which were initially involved.

My general goal is to achieve a more multipolar world, but not in the sense of space-filling empires etc. To achieve this, I am going to give the USSR quite a lot of boosts, but not to the point of being a 'wank'. At the same time, I'm taking away some positives for the US, but not to the point of being a 'screw'. I'm trying to make a lot of things simply different, not necessarily more-or-less advantageous for the superpowers. I feel like the emergence of more regional powers will also create less of an incentive for nations to side with either superpower. I'm intending to go until around 2010 in this timeline, with a short epilogue at the end set in the future. But this is prone to change .

Since you often ask for comments and are tragically under-served, the rest of this post is just going to be a dumping ground of all my thoughts reading this over the last few days.

THANK YOU SO MUCH!!! Seriously, I feel like an ass having to beg for comments all the time, and the comments are great at indicating interests, contributing to the timeline and so on. As well as giving me something to do between updates p)

I'm most curious to see where you're taking the Eastern Bloc. Right now the relative reform of institutions is encouraging. Will we see a greater commitment to human rights in the Warsaw Pact, or is this just a temporary phase?

We are going to see a 'nicer' Soviet bloc, but not significantly. I think that human rights in the Soviet Union were a bit different than a lot of people believe. I think the perception that the Soviets always had a Stalinist way of dealing with people is false, and that is self-evident with the relatively humane manner in which ousted politicians were treated. But the Soviets did always see human rights as something to be thrown aside when they became a burden. Obviously the Communists wanted to create a new society, but they can only throw off worldviews to a certain extent, and I think that trying to push human rights as a sort of 'natural law' principle in the Soviet Union is an uphill battle. Hopefully that answers that question.

Meanwhile the West (especially the US) seem to be scrambling. US politics have been kept somewhat in the background, but it's clear that a general backlash against Wallace's blundering is in effect throughout the 1950s. I know much of the Americas updates are OTL, but is it just me or does the US attitude towards Latin America seem even more harsh and brutal ITTL?

To an extent, yes. The Americans are increasingly being confronted by populist movements whose interests are incompatible with continued Norteamericano exploitation, but without having to intervene in Guatemala, the US didn't need to 'prove' its supposed commitment to democratic governments, so they didn't help Costa Rica like they did in OTL.

Also concerning the US, what were the casualties like in China? I'm guessing far greater than Korea? I realize we're due for an Asia update (or ten) and I'm curious to see how the loss of Korea will affect US policy towards Japan, as well as Japanese politics.

You also mentioned an independent Sikkim, and I'm not going to let you forget it! (So easy to forget.)

I realised looking over the China updates that I didn't give a very good indication of US casualties in China. Yes, they were higher than Korea, and there wasn't the international participation that was in Korea, but it wasn't hugely so. I know that's a pretty crap answer, to be honest, but I want to emphasise that the vast majority of the real fighting was done by the Nationalists, with the Americans largely there for rapid-reaction reinforcements and to stiffen weakening battle-lines.

The loss of Korea will lead to an increasing remilitarisation of Japan, with the Japanese constitutional restrictions on the military essentially falling into irrelevancy. I'm thinking this will probably be more the case in the early 60s, as the 50s is a bit too soon, given WWII, and the DPRK will only really start getting more developed in the late 50s/early 60s. The DPRK will be a lot better than OTL, primarily because I think many of the bizarre aspects of the DPRK are due to a siege mentality on steroids, which will be gone without South Korea on its border, and the experience of the occupation of Pyongyang by the Americans never occurring.

Yes, I did mention an independent Sikkim! I'll have to do a mini-update on them sometime, but I'll hint that it will not become particularly well-off until quite late, until it becomes fairly well known for the endorsement of some... well... questionable financial practices. I'll be sure to add in more Asia updates, but I have a LOT planned for Asia in the 1960s, not quite so much for the 1950s, which I'm still dealing with.

Canaan sounds fascinating. Would be interested to hear how many Arabs embrace the ideology, and also how the state handles the Hasidim. Linked to this, the possibilities for a different Soviet reaction to this state are tantalizing. Obviously as a more out-and-out fascist state, they're going to have a negative opinion of Canaan. But even if this moderates, their non-Jewish identity is likely going to have effects on whether the Soviets allow their Jewish population to migrate, and if the (largely Hasidic) Russian Jewish community even wants to migrate.

Another aspect of this reformed ideology is Nazi-hunting. I imagine it's less of a priority ITTL? Is it even being attempted at all?

Yeah, Canaan is a bit of a strange one. At one point I'll probably do an update on Canaanite society, just to give a more general look at it internally. To answer the question about the Hasidim, it basically doesn't get on with them. In particular they try to keep the Hasidim as far away from the Arabs as possible, feeling that the Hasidim have a knack for alienating the Arabs, and the Canaanite ideology requires avoiding ethnic hatred between the two Semitic peoples. Arab embrace of the ideology is kinda similar to how the Bosniaks operated in the Croatian Ustashe regime. Some will endorse it, they won't be excluded too much, but the majority of them won't be fans, and in Canaan the majority of the Arabs will be Arab nationalists, at least at this point in time. The Russian Jewish community isn't going to be particularly attracted to Canaan, for the most part. There won't be refuseniks in the manner we had OTL. There will be a lot more Jews in the Russian Jewish Autonomous Region, but the Jews will be desiring emigration to the United States, as opposed to Palestine.

In regards to Nazi-hunting, that's going to be quite a bit smaller than OTL, although other governments are still going to do it. The Soviets, for instance are going to hunt down Nazi political leaders, whilst the Yugoslavs are going to be the most active, looking for Ustashe all over South America, Australia and the United States.

One thought about domestic US politics: you've got Dewey as president. The odds of earlier action on Civil Rights just went way up, with all the discord that entails.

You also mentioned Eisenhower as president, as a Republican, and I'm pretty sure you've hinted that he's elected in 1952. That's such a significant thing (a party not going with a sitting president as its candidate) that I'm guessing you probably have an idea in mind already. But if not, here's an idea: I can imagine that Dewey pushing through Civil Rights legislation a decade early (and the resulting fallout) is enough to cause a revolt from the right, probably in the form of a successful challenge from Taft. This could cause Eisenhower to step in in an effort to head off the disaster of Taft's isolationism (basically as per OTL.)

I sort of had the embryo of a similar idea in mind, that Dewey's civil rights profile will have a backlash from the right. But I hadn't put too much thought to it. I'll definitely be doing it in the manner that you suggest, that sounds really good. Brilliant even. I'll be the first to admit that my expertise is in the peoples of Eurasia. I'm probably one of the few people on this forum (especially as a native English-speaker) that knows more about Africa than about American politics.

Of course Ike coming into power after Civil Rights is already out of the bag means a very different domestic agenda for his presidency. He's lost a huge carrot with which to appease conservatives. How does he govern? And what happens to the Democrats?

The implications for US politics are staggering.

Edit: If you by any chance were looking for some ideas about US politics/domestic policy, I'd be happy to PM. But of course it's your show and I'm more than happy just to read and enjoy!

The implications are big, which has kinda intimidated me a bit. I don't know as much as I should about US politics, so I'll DEFINITELY be taking up your PM offer. I do have some ideas for Ike to still be an attractive POTUS, which I'll run through with you via PM. As for anyone else reading this reply as well, any help on US politics would be much appreciated, as I'd hate that to be a weak link in the timeline and the story-telling. Thanks

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

A New World (1950s): A Plan Down Under

The 1950s was notable in Australasia, largely as contemporary politics reflected an increasing shift away from Britain, the traditional 'mother country' towards alignment with the United States and a new status as the Southern frontier of the West in the Asia-Pacific region. In both Australia and New Zealand, this was largely the result of the Red Scare which rippled through the region as the war in China raged.

New Zealand politics was dominated by the National Party, the centre-right party which defeated the Labour Party which had been led by Peter Fraser until his death shortly after the 1949 election. Fraser was replaced as leader of the opposition by Walter Nash, who proved incapable of ousting Sir Sydney Holland's National Party from power. In 1950, Holland's government had abolished the New Zealand Legislative Council (the Upper House of NZ's parliament), which had been seen as ineffective and superfluous. New Zealand therefore became a unicameral state, which Holland argued was more appropriate for a unitary state. Holland dismantled many wartime state controls, most notably the rationing of butter and petrol. Holland's first term was increasingly associated with prosperity due to Holland's encouragement of private industry and the simultaneous boom experienced by New Zealand's wool industry, which took advantage of demand for clothing prompted by American fighting in China. A slightly more macabre policy of Holland's was the reinstatement of capital punishment for murder, a policy popular with conservatives and many middle-class voters which provided National's primary voter base. Capital punishment would be later repealed during the Holyoake years. The most dramatic episode of Holland's leadership was in 1951, where the authorities entered into confrontations with locked-out dock workers and coal miners. Holland denounced the actions of the unionists as "industrial anarchy" and determined to stop them, ordered the Army to unload cargo from the ports and utilised 'Red Scare' tactics to turn public opinion against the so-called 'watersiders'. Holland utilised public opposition to the watersiders to pass Emergency Regulations which drastically curtailed civil rights, particularly the freedoms of speech and expression. Holland's actions against the watersiders was interpreted by many voters as strong, decisive leadership, and he was elected with an increased majority in the 1953 election. Holland's second term was less notable, although New Zealand maintained steady economic growth. Two months prior to the 1957 election, Holland resigned as Prime Minister, due to ill health. Keith Holyoake, the Deputy Prime Minister, succeeded him as PM. Immediately prior to Holland's resignation, Ernest Corbett had resigned (also due to illness) as Minister of Maori Affairs. Apparently Corbett must have been more ill than Holland, as Holland took his place upon resignation of his position as Prime Minister. In the 1957 election, Holyoake's position was confirmed as Prime Minister, having defeated Labour candidate Walter Nash, who was criticised during the events of 1951 by the left for his non-committal attitude to the workers, and by the right for his 'softness' on the unionists, who counted Communists amongst their ranks.[85] Holyoake's tenure was less successful than Holland's. Whilst a skillful campaigner and popular with the public, his attempts at building upon his unsuccessful attempts to open new markets for New Zealand products during the Holland years (which failed to entice either the Soviets or the Indians into trade agreements) were predictably unsuccessful. Holyoake did however abolish the capital punishment reintroduced by his predecessor, although with little support from his own National MPs, and introducing voluntary unionism. Despite this action, the majority of industrial workplaces remained thoroughly unionised.

Australia was similarly dominated by conservatives, in particular veteran statesman Robert "Sir Bob" Menzies. Menzies' Liberal/Country coalition won the 1949 election with a House majority and 51% of the two-party vote, but remained a minority in the Senate. Menzies found this position intolerable, and attempted to manufacture a "double dissolution" election that had a good change of giving him control of the Senate. In this vein, Menzies introduced a bill in 1951 to ban the Communist Party, hoping the Senate would reject it and provoke the snap election. Unexpectedly, Labour let the bill pass through Parliament, although it was nullified when declared unconstitutional by the Australian High Court. Menzies' double dissolution did come, however, unexpectedly provoked by opposition to a banking bill he tried to push through. The 1951 election succeeded in giving Menzies control over the Senate. Later that year, Menzies held a referendum on whether to permit Parliament to make laws in regards to Communists and Communism when considered to be necessary for the security of the Commonwealth. Ben Chifley, the Labour opposition leader, had died just after the 1951 election, and had been replaced by Dr.H.V. Evatt, who campaigned vigorously against the referendum on the grounds of preserving civil liberties. The referendum very narrowly passed, and legislation was passed through Parliament banning the Communist Party. The "OzCommunists" became increasingly underground, and suspected Communists (including Eastern European immigrants unaffiliated with Communists or their sympathisers) were harassed by police.[86] Labour was torn apart during Evatt's time as leader of the opposition. In 1954, Vladimir Petrov, the Third Secretary at the Soviet embassy in Canberra, defected to Australia. In 1945, Michael Bialoguski, a Polish immigrant to Australia (as well as a musician and a medical practitioner) had made himself known to the Commonwealth Investigation Service, the forerunner to the Australia Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO) and was recruited to gather information on Russian and other Eastern European immigrants. Bialoguski was directly handled by Bob Wake, the head of Brisbane's CIS service. In 1951, Bialoguski met Vladimir Petrov, who had arrived in Australia to take his post at the embassy. They befriended each other, often meeting to drink and tour King's Cross, Sydney's red-light district. Bialoguski was instructed to become a double agent, pretending to spy on behalf of Petrov. Bialoguski confirmed ASIO suspicions that Petrov was spying for the First Main Directorate of the Ministry for State Security (MGB), the forerunner to the KGB. After Stalin' death and the execution of Lavrentiy Beria, Bialoguski convinced Petrov that he wouldn't be safe in the Soviet Union. Petrov defected to Australia, along with his wife, Evdokia. His wife didn't know about his plans to defect, but decided that she didn't want to leave him and defected alongside her husband. The Petrov Affair proved beyond reasonable doubt the existence of a Soviet spy ring in Australia, which was exploited politically by Menzies. Menzies attempted to discredit Evatt by associating Labour ministers with Petrov. At the Royal Commission on the issue, Evatt mounted an effective defense, leading the Commission to withdraw his leave to appear. Evatt claimed convincingly, but ultimately futilely, that there existed judicial bias in favour of the Menzies government. Evatt later caused embarassment by writing to Vyacheslav Molotov, the Soviet Foreign Minister, asking him directly whether there were any Soviet spies in Australia. Predictably, the answer was "no". He read out the reply in Parliament, which provoked ridicule from both sides of Parliament. Evatt the proceeded to attack the "Groupers", Catholic anti-Communist unionists who wielded disproportionate influence in the Labour Party. The resulting split lead to the establishment of the Democratic Labour Party by the Groupers, who subsequently supported the Liberal Party. Menzies' tenure was made more appealing by a boom period spurred by high prices for Australian agricultural products and strong immigration, boosting labour reserves. Menzies also supported the Anglo-French attack on Suez, concerned at the implications of the Egyptian nationalisation of the Suez.

In 1951, the Oceanian Treaty Organisation (the OTO) [87] was established. This was a collective military alliance composed of Australia, the United States, New Zealand and the Netherlands (due to their presence on New Guinea) on the same lines as the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation in Europe.

[85] IOTL, Walter Nash defeated Holyoake in the 1957 election, but with a stronger Red Scare in New Zealand due to America's defeat in China and the apparently strengthening Communist position in Asia, the National Party wins the election ITTL.

[86] IOTL, this referendum was narrowly defeated, preventing Menzies from taking these actions. Nevertheless, similar to the National victory in New Zealand, this referendum narrowly passed due to a more intense Red Scare (doubly effective in Australia, as the American defeat in China would've provoked virulent racism due to the combined experiences of war with Japan and the Chinese Communist win over the Americans. 'Red Peril' would become virtually synonymous with 'Yellow Peril' in Australia).

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Just wondering, does anyone know where I can find a copy of this film? I've never heard of it, and I don't think it's easily available... http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act...g-activities-in-australia-20140405-3663z.html

 

[xt828]

Just wondering, does anyone know where I can find a copy of this film? I've never heard of it, and I don't think it's easily available... http://www.canberratimes.com.au/act...g-activities-in-australia-20140405-3663z.html

I don't think it was ever actually released. Maybe try emailing the makers?

 

[Expat]

What's the implication of the OTO rather than SEATO? It seems like collective defense for the region would be seen as more important than ever. Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, as well as (perhaps, depending on circumstances) South Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, also Thailand, and even the UK via Hong Kong and Singapore (and Malaysia's still British at the moment, yes?) There was also the somewhat bizarre OTL inclusion of Pakistan into SEATO, though with Iran pro-western, perhaps another alliance can be arranged for that region.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

What's the implication of the OTO rather than SEATO? It seems like collective defense for the region would be seen as more important than ever. Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, as well as (perhaps, depending on circumstances) South Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos, also Thailand, and even the UK via Hong Kong and Singapore (and Malaysia's still British at the moment, yes?) There was also the somewhat bizarre OTL inclusion of Pakistan into SEATO, though with Iran pro-western, perhaps another alliance can be arranged for that region.

In this case OTO isn't thaaaat significant. It's really just ANZUS, but with a little hint kinda buried in there about the future. There is still going to be SEATO (I think Pakistan was included because of East Pakistan/Bangladesh), and it is going to be close to OTO, but not synonymous. Malaysia is still British, yes, but I will mention that there is going to be an alt-Konfrontasi . The Middle East already had a collective security alliance, known as the Baghdad Pact, in OTL. It was comprised of Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Britain and Pakistan (I think?). Obviously that has gone out the window ITTL, where the West's only allies in the region are Iran, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and (kinda) Canaan. SEATO is going to be kept separate from the OTO largely because the OTO is 'closer' nations, that're considered both more secure and trustworthy than the 'frontline' nations like Thailand. Japan is the obvious exception there, but geographically including Japan and Taiwan with the OTO without South-East Asia is awkward, especially for joint military ops.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

An Overview of American Politics, 1944-1960

First of all, I'd like to give credit to Expat, who has more than made up for my lack of knowledge regarding American domestic politics and has assisted me greatly, both in terms of content and creativity, to this update. Whilst I've had foreign policy down, the internal politics of the United States is alien to me (coming from a nation that uses a reformed Westminster system). So thank you so much Expat, for making this update possible.

In regards to the notes, as Wallace and Dewey were never Presidents IOTL, there is no need to provide notes to point out differences.

===​

Although the presidency of the Union's 33rd President, Henry A. Wallace was plagued with perceived impotence at challenging Soviet expansionism abroad, historical revisionists have instead portrayed him as an idealistic, if somewhat tragic figure. It is believed that Wallace, guilty for having used the atom bomb on Japan, saw it as his duty to improve the life of many, having taken so many. Wallace's principled nature pushed him to take an emancipatory stance on civil rights, a stance which provoked a backlash revealing the worst aspects of America's nature. Noting the often-superb performance of Coloured soldiers in the Second World War, Wallace immediately pushed for the desegregation of the US military. Despite this push, a colour bar persevered. The upper ranks continued to be dominated by Whites, and although the Servicemen's Readjustment Act ('G.I. Bill') which provided education, unemployment benefits, low-cost mortgages and many other benefits to assist veterans, many Coloured soldiers were unable to take advantage of these initiatives due to their socio-economic situation. In the military itself, many Black soldiers were treated extremely poorly by White fellow soldiers. Assaults were common and led to several incidents, including suicides and reprisal shootings. Integration in the military would be commonly claimed by segregationists to have been a key factor in the defeat of the United States in China. One Mississippi congressman was reported as saying "How could our good White boys retain the discipline to fight a war, with the influence of the lazy, dumb Negro tugging at him? The only time Black men have ever made Whites lose a war is when the White man let him try to help". Positively, the colour barrier in sport received a blow when Coloured baseballers Josh Gibson (of the Pennsylvania Pirates)[87] and Jackie Robinson (of the Brooklyn Dodgers) joined the Major League. The NFL colour barrier was also broken when the Los Angeles Rams signed Kenny Washington and Woody Strode and the Cleveland Browns hired Marion Motley and Bill Wallis.

In 1946, Wallace asked the Democratic Congress to submit full civil rights legislation, an initiative which failed spectacularly. It was more successful in 1948, where a Republican Congress allowed the submission of such legislation. Dewey would later soft-pedal on civil rights during his campaign, stating that he would enforce civil rights legislation as becoming of the law. Wallace also pushed health care as a major priority of his presidency. The '45-'46 Congress passed basic health care legislation, although it was weakened by a compromise where the programmes were paid for with federal taxes, but administered by states (which had the unfortunate effect of prioritisation for Southern Whites). Economically, Wallace proved to be quite effective. Wallace gradually relinquished price controls and demobilised the military, minimising inflation. Labour disputes were also increasingly rare during his Presidency, although when they did occur, he tended to be relatively pro-labour (this also had the effect of pushing the Republican Party further anti-unions). Nevertheless, Wallace's veto failed to stop the Taft-Hartley Act of 1947, disempowering labour unions to a hitherto-unseen degree.[88]

In the 1948 election, Republican Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey was elected to the Presidency. A representative of the 'Eastern Establishment', an alliance of North-Eastern business and political interests who had supported most of Roosevelt's 'New Deal' reforms. Dewey focused primarily on foreign policy, and was known as the first of the American 'Cold Warrior' Presidents. Nevertheless, Dewey's hand was forced due to the civil rights issues stirred up unintentionally by his predecessor. Riots in the South, including an infamous incident at Montgomery, Alabama in 1950 (which led to the lynching of six boys, all suspected of the rape of a 17-year old White girl (the girl testified that there was only one assailant), led to the deployment of National Guard units throughout the South. At times, African-American National Guardsmen abandoned their posts to defend African-American neighbourhoods. Firebombings of Black churches and businesses by Klansmen become increasingly common, and led certain communities to migrate en masse out of the South, to cities such as Detroit and Chicago. The National Guard postings proved to be largely ineffective at preventing violence, due to Dewey's maintaining that they should be kept minimal. Instead, the National Guard was largely used as a means of political coercion, forcing state governors to enforce civil rights legislation, not due to the threat of force, but the appearance of administrative incompetency due to National Guard presence. If a Governor didn't need National Guard presence to keep law and order, he gained political prestige. Dewey managed to effectively manage the judicial system to the ends of promoting civil rights. He effectively calmed the situation in the South. His judicial activism promoted a fairer legal system for Southern Blacks insofar as his influence allowed. Race relations in the South remained tense, but were at least somewhat normalised.

The other notable programme of Dewey's presidency was his anti-corruption efforts. Dewey attempted, with mixed success, to remove the mafia presence from organised labour and the Democratic machines in major Northern cities through the Justice Department. These machines, somewhat calcified during Wallace's tenure, were undermined by Dewey's efforts. By breaking the influence of the Democratic machines, Dewey ensured a major upheaval in the American political system. Other initiative's of Dewey's included the establishment of the Department of Health, Education and Welfare and the lowering of taxes. Unsurprisingly given his background, Dewey focused his economic policy on balancing the budget and promoting business. [89]

Although often celebrated in hindsight, it cannot be ignored that Dewey's actions upset both major factions of the Democratic Party as well as alienating his own Republican Party. Accustomed to the machine politics of New York, Dewey was taken aback by the lack of support granted to him by conservatives within his party. Most Dewey biographers believe that this, more than anything, hurt his confidence as leader of the nation. Combined with the catastrophic intervention in China, which he felt he had gambled his presidency on, Dewey became convinced of his own weakness. His primary opponent within the Republican party was Robert Alphonso Taft, a conservative Ohio Senator. Whilst the Republicans were rallying around Dewey's conservative opposition, the Democrats were also plotting to push Dewey out of the White House. Both the segregationist Democrats of the South and the machines of the North had been under attack throughout Dewey's first term, and were determined to prevent a second term for Dewey. The two factions made a truce, promoting at the top of the ticket conservative Democrat Richard Russell, a Senator from Georgia, who promoted segregation and support for farmers. However, the northern Democratic party supporters didn't approve of their bosses' choice of presidential candidate. These northern Democrats, perceiving their bosses' support for a conservative candidate as evidence of corruption, formed an Anti-Corruption Ticket, supporting moderate Democrat Estes Kefauver, a Senator from Tennessee. This forced a virtual civil war amongst the Democratic politicians of the North, forced either to ride this populist wave or rally around the party bosses. On the streets of cities such as Chicago, Pittsburgh and Atlantic City, thugs and mobster engaged in voter intimidation and bribery on behalf of their Democratic bankrollers. Dewey did his best to halt this, stepping up federal enforcement of anti-corruption laws. Many Northern voters went to the polls with armed policemen at the door. Kefauver won no states, but managed to secure 7 million or so votes, securing enough support at the state level to secure political reform in several Northern states, including a limit on the power of party bosses and open popular primaries, beginning a permanent split in the Democratic Party.

Panicked by the prominence of conservative candidates in both the Republican and Democratic parties, and pessimistic about his chances of re-election, Dewey begged wartime General Dwight D. Eisenhower to run for the Republican candidacy, announcing to the nation that he is unwilling to run for a second time, but fully endorses Eisenhower's candidacy. Eisenhower defeated Taft in the Republican primaries, and demolished Russell at the election of 1952, the prestige of the popular war hero preventing Russell from gaining the support of any states outside the Deep South.

In many ways, Eisenhower continued the policies of his predecessor throughout his two terms. Much of Dewey's Cabinet was left intact by Eisenhower, who endorsed the balancing of the budget. Eisenhower maintained a moderate-to-liberal social policy, inching towards gradual development of civil rights for African-Americans. In fact, Eisenhower brought Dewey into his Cabinet as Attorney General. Dewey's focus remained anti-Communism, anti-corruption and a crackdown on organised crime. Eisenhower included Democrats in his Cabinet also, including Estes Kefauver. His non-partisan attitude to politics and his steady hand made him one of the most popular Presidents in US history, despite setbacks such as the Soviet Union's propaganda coup with Sputnik's penetration of space. Nevertheless, Eisenhower's foreign policy was both decisive and measured, as illustrated by his interventions in Lebanon,the proliferation of collective-security agreements and the expansion of the intelligence apparatuses.[90]

[87] IOTL, Josh Gibson never played in the Major Leagues, but played in the Negro Leagues and internationally. He was known as the 'Black Babe Ruth' and considered by many to be one of the best baseball players to have ever lived, in any league.

[88] ITTL, the slower shift away from the wartime economy leads to a more-strongly Republican Congress in '47-48, due to a less-happy consumer middle class. Nevertheless, the economy overall is slightly better.

[89] IOTL, the Department of Health, Education and Welfare was established later. Also, by cleaning house in the Federal government, he took the wind out of the sails of McCarthyism, which has avoided its excesses. Also, the lack of red-baiting prevents the gutting of Hollywood through 'black-listing'.

[90] IOTL, the close call between Taft and Eisenhower. ITTL, Eisenhower beats Taft by a landslide. Therefore Eisenhower doesn't reach out to Taft and give him influence in the running of internal affairs. Therefore Eisenhower keeps with a Dewey-esque line.

 

[historybuff]

Most interesting. Wonder what became of McCarthy and McCarthism?

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Most interesting. Wonder what became of McCarthy and McCarthism?

It pretty much died down ITTL. Red-baiting will still be around, to be honest, but Dewey's efforts at cleaning house left McCarthyism as a force kinda unable to really breath.